"Sharks & Minnows" dives into the boom in CAW play

[Andy Asaro]

Twitter

[Andy Asaro]

Twitter

[Andy Asaro]

Twitter

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by Andy Asaro

https://twitter.com/PatCummingsTIF/s...74931028951041

When I looked at those ROI stats it brought me back to St Adalbert's grade school when the Polish nuns use to scream "Jezus Maryja i Józef" when they were shocked at something.

[metro]

Pat and the TIF's work is to be commended but I wish they would spend as much time looking into tote security/integrity as they do the impact CAW teams are having on the game. I realize that's easier said than done but a lot of the data he posts just reinforces the narrative that every lower that it should be payout is because of late CAW money or their money simply crushed the pools.

[Andy Asaro]

Originally Posted by metro

Pat and the TIF's work is to be commended but I wish they would spend as much time looking into tote security/integrity as they do the impact CAW teams are having on the game. I realize that's easier said than done but a lot of the data he posts just reinforces the narrative that every lower that it should be payout is because of late CAW money or their money simply crushed the pools.

If the CAW teams wanted the tote system fixed and updated the Industry would do it. I believe the current system is easy to exploit and that the CAW players like it that way. Hard to trust anything this Industry does

[foregoforever]

Originally Posted by metro

Pat and the TIF's work is to be commended but I wish they would spend as much time looking into tote security/integrity as they do the impact CAW teams are having on the game.

https://racingthinktank.com/reports/wagering-insecurity

You must have missed this.

[DanBoals]

Originally Posted by Andy Asaro

If the CAW teams wanted the tote system fixed and updated the Industry would do it. I believe the current system is easy to exploit and that the CAW players like it that way. Hard to trust anything this Industry does

Amen.


It is amazing that the tri, super, p3 and up pools are more than a third CAW money...


Is this why tracks refuse to put real time odds and pool amounts on their websites? I always thought that if they put up the pools and odds in real time, that would be helpful to bettors. It would be very nice to know the estimated payout on exotic bets. I guess since the CAWs have that info, that is enough for the tracks. No wonder our sport is dying.


Transparency is out of fashion these days, but it is the only thing imo that will save horse racing.

[thaskalos]

Originally Posted by Andy Asaro

If the CAW teams wanted the tote system fixed and updated the Industry would do it. I believe the current system is easy to exploit and that the CAW players like it that way. Hard to trust anything this Industry does

The horse racing industry has made a deal with the Devil...and there is no turning back. Especially now when they see the mutuel handle of the CAW teams going up and up...while the rest of the bettors are betting less and less. The industry has chosen to embrace the CAW teams...and to give the rest of us the finger.

Let's see what happens when the "smart money" starts feasting upon itself, once the 'dumb money' finally wises up and flees this game altogether. It will be a sight to see...IMO.

[VeryOldMan]

Originally Posted by thaskalos

The horse racing industry has made a deal with the Devil...and there is no turning back. Especially now when they see the mutuel handle of the CAW teams going up and up...while the rest of the bettors are betting less and less. The industry has chosen to embrace the CAW teams...and to give the rest of us the finger.

Let's see what happens when the "smart money" starts feasting upon itself, once the 'dumb money' finally wises up and flees this game altogether. It will be a sight to see...IMO.

Amen.

And more broadly this industry has made a deal with the devil re drugs, breeding practices, etc. Short term makes sense to keep horses on the track, racetracks open - but ultimately leading to a cul-de-sac with the long term viability of this sport as a betting option versus the emerging sport betting options here, in my opinion.

[formula_2002]

Regarding the mandatory payout days at gulfstream. Using the data for 1/26/2020
For calculation purposes say the total handle was $1000. Bets were 42.6 % of that. Total bet = $426.
Say a 25% vig. Then 1000x.75x..723= a return of $542 for a $1 return of $1.27. That's a 27% profit , not the 60% profit indicated. Another explanation?

[Publius]

Hopefully it works out well this summer at DelMar. The changing odds after the race starts is a huge turnoff to some prospective gamblers who would considering wagering on horses. I have come to expect this at all tracks.

Good luck DMTC.

[formula_2002]

Originally Posted by Publius

Hopefully it works out well this summer at DelMar. The changing odds after the race starts is a huge turnoff to some prospective gamblers who would considering wagering on horses. I have come to expect this at all tracks.

Good luck DMTC.

I have not seen any proper analysis to substantiate the whale profits in the win pool. I have a modest number of races capturing the win pool % from several minutes to post to the last flash using ATRpro. Some % change up, some down. In the same race some whales win, some lose and sometimes they all lose, to the benefit of the non whales.

[Robert Fischer]

at least three ways of classifying wagering-syndicate 'correctness' in a given race;

1) they are correct
2) randomness went with or against their relatively correct decisions
3) they are wrong

The vast majority of races fall under category one or two, but when they are wrong it can be a valuable opportunity.

The big syndicates, and the computer assisted wagering present significant issues regarding the health of the game. I felt triggered to make this post, because these issues also tend to demoralize, and gamblers and horseplayers and hrMedia love to bask in demoralization.

[metro]

Originally Posted by foregoforever

https://racingthinktank.com/reports/wagering-insecurity

You must have missed this.

I remember that article, thought it was more directed to the underhanded side of wagering on horse racing. They did give a good summation of tote security issues but many of them were just rehashing instances of it (Volponi P6, Maloney's proof of wagering after the bell, etc..

My post was probably too directed at TIF when it should be more at the industry as a whole. The article is now two years old and to my knowledge there has been little to nothing done to upgrade the tote system. It's an issue decades old compared to the attention that CAWs get which is more recent as it pertains to the tote security/integrity.