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Historical Stats in some of these races don't always point to a specific horse as a winner, but they can help you identify a horse or group of horses that have a higher percentage chance of winning or finishing in the exotics. Thus making them a good key horse(s) when constructing your exotic bets.
For instance, in this guide I say that in the last 21 years 71% of the Rebel winners finished either 1st or 2nd in their previous start, with 57% of those winners finishing 1st. 4 horses in the Rebel field finished 1st or 2nd in their previous race and only 2 horses won their previous race.
I should note here, that these stats should be used in conjunction with basic handicapping principles and sometimes the stats don't always apply. This could very well be the case in the Rebel since American Pharoah is obviously the horse to beat in a small field. But, he does fit a few of the higher percentage stats in the guide, esp. for a key horse in exotic bets.
Also, when constructing exotic bets I find it helpful to know where the post time favorite has finished. In the last 21 running's of the Rebel, the post time favorite has won 33% (about average) of the time, finished in the exacta 62%, the trifecta 71% and the Superfecta 81%. While going against the post time favorite in the win category could be profitable, the stats show it will be tougher to get him out of the exotics.
I do post my personal selections on my blog, but I do not to put them in my guides. I prefer to let handicappers choose how they want to use the stats in conjunction with their own handicapping methods and that should not be skewed by my own thoughts.
With all this said, I know not everyone likes to use stats in their handicapping. Different methods, styles and angles is what makes this game so great. To me, sometimes these stats point to a winner, sometimes they help me identify a good key horse for exotics, in the Derby they help me reduce my contenders to a group of horses and sometimes they are simply unusable. I hope this helps, let me know if you have anymore questions.
Last edited by luvalab; 03-13-2015 at 11:46 PM.
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