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06-07-2001, 11:56 AM
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#1
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Registered User
Join Date: May 2001
Posts: 198
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I'll be in Las Vegas next week and plan to interview Ernie (the professional player profiled in a recent New York Times Magazine article) for an upcoming article in Meadow's Racing Monthly.
If you have questions you'd like me to ask, feel free to post them here, or send me an email at bmeadow@aol.com.
Thank you.
__________________
Barry Meadow
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06-07-2001, 12:23 PM
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#2
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Senior Member
Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: Las Vegas
Posts: 12,075
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Barry, hope I can couch this correctly: A 3-4% ROI is
so tenuous, so amorphous how can you have any faith in it.? At what point do you realize, uh, oh, i'm in trouble
it's gone. Not getting 3-4% at all but have slipped into a
negative situation. How far behind is enough to realize
advantage is gone?
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06-07-2001, 02:48 PM
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#3
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Registered User
Join Date: Mar 2001
Posts: 507
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Ask him to directly answer the rebate question instead of tapping dancing behind his "it's not legal in Nevada" answer.
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06-07-2001, 05:09 PM
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#4
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Lover of Wisdom
Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: Saguaro Land
Posts: 108
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There are lots of things I'd like to have you ask him. Some are:
1.) How long did it take him to amass such a large bankroll? And, did he get it all through wagering or through other means? And, how big is it?
2.) How much of his edge comes from being an owner who bets his own horses?
3.) Why is he being so public about his success?
Last edited by baravot; 06-07-2001 at 05:17 PM.
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06-08-2001, 10:19 AM
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#5
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Registered User
Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: Dallas, Tx
Posts: 1,502
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Excellent looking forward to the article. Few questions for
Ernie.
1) Looks like he uses the DRF. What other handicapping tools does he use if any...ie The Sheets, Video replay, Software...
2) What is his typical routine for preparing for the next day at the races?
3) What books/handicapping literature did he benefit from?
4) Does he have a handicapping partner/aide or does he do all his handicapping independently?
5) What areas of his game does he hope to improve on, if any? If so, how will he go about doing it?
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06-08-2001, 12:09 PM
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#6
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Registered User
Join Date: Apr 2001
Location: Topeka,KS
Posts: 564
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It would interesting to hear (if any)the value Ernie places on early speed both in sprint and routes.
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06-08-2001, 05:54 PM
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#7
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The Voice of Reason!
Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: Canandaigua, New york
Posts: 112,781
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? For Ernie
It would be interesting to see how he adjsuts (if he does) his approach to the races at the different tracks and seasons NYRA offers (winter track, Saratoga, turf, etc.)
Tom
__________________
Who does the Racing Form Detective like in this one?
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06-08-2001, 08:53 PM
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#8
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Senior Member
Join Date: May 2001
Location: Phoenix, AZ
Posts: 428
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I'd like to know if he is more of an objective or subjective handicapper. In other words, does he rely more on numbers and detailed records or a gut feel for what is right.
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06-09-2001, 09:22 AM
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#9
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Guest
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Barry,
Thanks for asking for our input. In the article it was mentioned that Ernie uses savers. I know this is someting that you don't recommend. It would be interesting if you could explore how he uses them and still makes money on such low priced exacta wagers with savers.
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06-10-2001, 12:28 PM
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#10
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Senior Member
Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: Oklahoma City
Posts: 1,718
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Barry:
I have two questions for Ernie D:
1. Although rebates are illegal in Nevada, "perks" are not. Other than the private room, what perks does he receive. For example, I noticed that he receives his sheets at the casino office. Who pays for them? Who pays for other handicapping tools?
What other non-rebate premiums does he receive? For example does the casino pay for his computer equipment and supplies and/or broadband access? Do they "rent" his home-based office from him for his use?
2. From a handicapping standpoint, as he appears to be a "chalk" player (plodder as he called it), it seems to me his edge is formed by eliminating vulnerable favorites. What method does he use to identify false favorites?
One question for you, Barry. Will you please post any replies to our questions for Ernie here for those of us who are not your subscribers?
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06-10-2001, 09:44 PM
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#11
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Registered User
Join Date: May 2001
Posts: 35
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a question
Ernie talks about accessing if a horse is good value. I 'de like to know if he has a "Set of numbers" for a horse to mesasure his odds against.
I would assume he is looking for a MIN mathimatically quantifiable advantage on a horse he is betting, and he then wants to messure that number vs the horses Odds NO ?
He also talks about pace being very importent....i agree...but sometimes i say...if the pace is fast this horse should run good....if the pace is slow i am less confident.....how does he messure this when its not obvious or is he not even in a race if he think there is a considerable doubt as to likely pace ?
If he anwsers it would be great if you could post it here
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06-11-2001, 10:59 AM
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#12
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Registered User
Join Date: May 2001
Posts: 35
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Quote:
Originally posted by Lefty
Barry, hope I can couch this correctly: A 3-4% ROI is
so tenuous, so amorphous how can you have any faith in it.? At what point do you realize, uh, oh, i'm in trouble
it's gone. Not getting 3-4% at all but have slipped into a
negative situation. How far behind is enough to realize
advantage is gone?
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I agree, I am Guy who has tinkered with systems often. Just from past experience i could tell you a few things an ROI of 3 or 4% reflects.
This guy HAS TO BE sitting threw some pretty long losing streaks.
I would be interested in knowing if this guy has a way to MATHIMATICALLY QUANTIFY a type of advantage he is looking for from horse to horse....AND WHEN AN IF HE HAS IDENTIFIED such a horse if he has a way to Quantify what fair value odds are for such a horse.
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06-12-2001, 11:45 AM
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#13
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Registered User
Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: MN
Posts: 68
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Barry,
I'm somewhat skeptical of Mr. Dahlman. I do believe he probably is a winning player. However, is it a result of swinging for the fences on the pick 6's and various carryovers. What I'd be skeptical of is if he could actually win betting straight win bets. I say this because I know a person can win with win betting...I've done it with a similar low level ROI and torcherous loosing streaks. But, Mr Dahlmans approach is so elementary and he doesn't appear to have a detailed grasp of things. He is obviously a better than average player...but can does he produce a profit in the win pool?
the skeptic
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06-12-2001, 03:09 PM
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#14
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vALUE sEEKER
Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: oHIo
Posts: 139
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Questions on my mind:
Does he record/review his bets with computer (database) to improve or is each day different with a
search for "opportunities"?
Does he sketch out an oddsline for the contenders he is
considering?If yes,is this where "addition/subtraction"
comes in?
Does he mainly use the "Sheet" numbers for eliminating
contenders?Since he pays no attention to patterns.
What does the Prologicdata.com info give him?
Pace numbers?Contenders?
What goes in the "Pace NoteBook"?How is it used?
Race or Horse specific?Race shapes?
Why did he play the twin double the night after he
had hit the big carryover pool.What was that payoff?
What is his overhead like per annum?
Barry, I will be looking for your article as I have won a
six month subscription in a Triple Crown Contest.
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06-12-2001, 03:40 PM
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#15
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Registered User
Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: GA
Posts: 2,860
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My questions for Mr. Dahlman:
Why is he choosing now to go public?
How was he able to juggle a family life with full time playing?
Does he use trainer/jockey data in his decision making?
How does he measure success? Daily? Monthly? Yearly?
Does he keep a separate bankroll for betting?
Jim
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