what is a Pace figure?

[Capper Al]

Sounds simple, but is it? Is it early as defined by Quirin points, or second call plus final time? What I find troubling is the second call plus final time out performs Giles' method if we count winning hits, yet by obeservation Giles identifies the pace battle much more accurately. Is the second call plus final time not really a pace figure, but an improved speed figure? If so, do we just discard pace altogether and use the improved speed figure? Or do we use both? So what is a pace figure and how is it used in conjunction with a speed figure?

[cj]

Much like a speed figure, a pace figure is one thing and one thing only. It tells you how fast a horse ran to a particular part in a race when adjusted for track speed and layout. How people use it is up to them.

[Greyfox]

Originally Posted by Capper Al

Is the second call plus final time not really a pace figure, but an improved speed figure?

Second call + final time is a hybrid.
It is not a pace figure nor a speed figure but a hybrid of both.
If it works for you, as some type of improvement, fine.
cj has given you the correct answer re: pace figure.

[turninforhome10]

Using a pace figure relies on 3 things IMHO
1) The jockey and their strengths (riding style) and how they see the race
2) The trainer and what their intent is when entering
3) The post position draw and how the track is playing

[thaskalos]

Originally Posted by Capper Al

Sounds simple, but is it? Is it early as defined by Quirin points, or second call plus final time? What I find troubling is the second call plus final time out performs Giles' method if we count winning hits, yet by obeservation Giles identifies the pace battle much more accurately. Is the second call plus final time not really a pace figure, but an improved speed figure? If so, do we just discard pace altogether and use the improved speed figure? Or do we use both? So what is a pace figure and how is it used in conjunction with a speed figure?

A player's definition of a "pace figure" depends on his definition of "pace handicapping".

If he considers pace handicapping to be the determination of how fast a race's pace is likely to be, or which horse figures to control the early pace...then the second call pace rating might do the trick.

If he considers pace handicapping to be the determination of how contested the early pace is likely to be...then Quirin's speed points, or Giles' method might be of use to him.

If he wants to find out how to compare the "courage" of the front runners in the race...then Quinn's Second Call Rating+Speed Rating might be his cup of tea.

To me, pace handicapping is the careful analysis of the way horses ration their speed throughout the race...so I look at every single fraction of a horse's performance individually.

[Capper Al]

Does the pace figure supercede a speed figure? Or are they to be used together?

[Capper Al]

Ainslie defined pace to me as a speed figure, what a horse had to contend with to obtain that speed figure. In other words, second call plus final time.

My research shows that pace figures and speed figures are independent of each other (as much as anything is with horses.)

[Greyfox]

Originally Posted by Capper Al

Does the pace figure supercede a speed figure? Or are they to be used together?

No. The pace figure, the speed figure, and the "shape of the race" have to be looked at in a big picture view.

What good is a high pace figure if the horse has no stamina?

What good is a high speed figure if the horse cannot overcome today's pace.

[Greyfox]

Originally Posted by Capper Al

Ainslie defined pace to me as a speed figure, what a horse had to contend with to obtain that speed figure. In other words, second call plus final time.

Where did Ainslie ever say that about second call+ final time?

[cj]

Originally Posted by Capper Al

Does the pace figure supercede a speed figure? Or are they to be used together?

Any pace figure alone will never supercede a speed figure. I think they should be used in combination. Why only look at part of the story?

[cj]

Originally Posted by Capper Al

Ainslie defined pace to me as a speed figure, what a horse had to contend with to obtain that speed figure. In other words, second call plus final time.

My research shows that pace figures and speed figures are independent of each other (as much as anything is with horses.)

I believe that was Quirin, and later Quinn.

[Tom]

I think some items here would be considered pace ratings, not figures.

Quinn had his PDQ Pace Ratings (pretty damn quick)

Race second call + race final time + either horse's final time or horse's second call time, depending on the type of race.

The chart in Ainslie's book using 120 points per second and 10 points per beaten length served me very well at Finger Lakes for years.

[Robert Goren]

To me, the pace figure is E1 or the first quarter time in a sprint and the first half in a route. I use to make track adjustments myself, but these days I use Bris's numbers. I take a look at PPs and usually you can figure out a likely number for most horses. If I see something like 98, 91, 92,and 93 in a horse's last 4 races at today distance, I give it a 92. I have tried looking at half times for sprints and 6F times in routes, but I never found them useful. A front runner with 4 or 5 points lower than the top horse, I throw out. A horse that likes to sit 3rd or 4th with the top number by 2 or 3 points is usually very good bet if he is not moving up in class. JMO

[Capper Al]

Originally Posted by Greyfox

Where did Ainslie ever say that about second call+ final time?

I was referring to page 200 of Ainslie's Complete Guide to Thoroughbred racing. Here he says, "The pace analyst looks for the horse able to set or overcome the fastest probable early pace without tiring too badly in the homestretch." Later Ainslie goes ahead a describes how he adds early pace to final time. It is a little diferent process than most.

CJ is also correct that many other do simliar formulas. I believe Ainslie was joining the pace bad late. I do like his explanation with "able to set or overcome the fastest probable early pace".

[Capper Al]

Originally Posted by cj

I believe that was Quirin, and later Quinn.

Better examples.