Pace Thesis (from Racing Dudes)

[bks]

"Thesis statement: The 2018 Kentucky Derby’s early fractions and pace will be moderate and will not cause a pace meltdown, resulting in horses in the stalking and mid-pack groups having the best shot to win and hit the board."


https://racingdudes.com/2018-kentuck...-thesis-picks/

[Parkview_Pirate]

To their credit, these guys bring the math and Brisnet pace figures and running styles to the table, rather than just spouting an opinion (like me). To be critical, that's still a pretty rudimentary way to analyze the pace. "speed" of the pace is certainly important, but what I see is a CLUSTER of horses that want to run P2 in between 100 and 105. What I glean from that is that unless these horses are running eight wide going into the second turn, some of them will be out of their comfort zone, having to go faster or slower to save ground.

I'm watching replays trying to figure out which of these mules will be okay being surrounded by other horses, and which ones will spit the bit and quit once things don't go their way. Fast pace by the timer or not, unless the track is really favoring speed, I think we'll see a pretty good movement of horses from back to front in the stretch.

Should be done with that analysis sometime in July....

[bks]

Originally Posted by Parkview_Pirate

To their credit, these guys bring the math and Brisnet pace figures and running styles to the table, rather than just spouting an opinion (like me). To be critical, that's still a pretty rudimentary way to analyze the pace. "speed" of the pace is certainly important, but what I see is a CLUSTER of horses that want to run P2 in between 100 and 105. What I glean from that is that unless these horses are running eight wide going into the second turn, some of them will be out of their comfort zone, having to go faster or slower to save ground.

I'm watching replays trying to figure out which of these mules will be okay being surrounded by other horses, and which ones will spit the bit and quit once things don't go their way. Fast pace by the timer or not, unless the track is really favoring speed, I think we'll see a pretty good movement of horses from back to front in the stretch.

Should be done with that analysis sometime in July....

Really good point there. All it will take for a hotter pace to develop is a jockey or two to gun their horse from the outside in order not to get hung 4 or 5 wide heading into the first turn. That would give the contending pressers with middle post positions like Bolt D'Oro, Justify and/or Mendelssohn a chance for fall in behind that first flight, which is just where you'll want to be. Could also see Moore being one of the ones that feels a need to go to the front if Mendy is keyed up or hung on the turn.

[CincyHorseplayer]

I hope they didn't hurt themselves coming up with that analysis.

[NorCalGreg]

Originally Posted by Parkview_Pirate

To their credit, these guys bring the math and Brisnet pace figures and running styles to the table, rather than just spouting an opinion (like me). To be critical, that's still a pretty rudimentary way to analyze the pace. "speed" of the pace is certainly important, but what I see is a CLUSTER of horses that want to run P2 in between 100 and 105. What I glean from that is that unless these horses are running eight wide going into the second turn, some of them will be out of their comfort zone, having to go faster or slower to save ground.

I'm watching replays trying to figure out which of these mules will be okay being surrounded by other horses, and which ones will spit the bit and quit once things don't go their way. Fast pace by the timer or not, unless the track is really favoring speed, I think we'll see a pretty good movement of horses from back to front in the stretch.

Should be done with that analysis sometime in July....

I think the "Pirate" should have been consulted for that article.

[letswastemoney]

That is roughly my same thesis: https://www.horseracingnation.com/bl...io_looming_123

[Parkview_Pirate]

Originally Posted by NorCalGreg

I think the "Pirate" should have been consulted for that article.

My legion of fans in the horse racing world are eagerly, and I mean on the edge of their seats in anticipation eagerly, waiting for my Kentucky Derby Analysis to be published.

Because I am PRIME fade material.

However, to your point, I did see that TimeFormUS predicts a fast pace, so maybe I'm not all wet when it comes to that.

letswastemoney has a very nice write up, and accurately conveys the complexity involved in the calculation.....

[Lemon Drop Husker]

Ain't opening that shit.

$1K they have Justify as their pick.