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Old 07-17-2018, 01:26 AM   #1
Lemon Drop Husker
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R8 Del Mar Opening Day: $100K Oceanside

3YOs set to go the gate with 2 AEs. Conditions include non-winners of a Sweepstakes of $50K at one mile or over in 2018.



And thus, we get a really deep and interesting field of yet to be stakes winners.


Arawak: O'neill/Stevens will get respect here. He has ran in 5 Graded Stakes races, and hasn't ran horribly awful. Just hasn't ran real 'great'. The o'fer the Exacta 3YO campaign is likely too tough to absorb for a rail runner that hasn't shown early speed, or a penchant for passing many late.

Texas Wedge: A couple more in here come from the last one in which they faced 3YOs and up down the hill at Santa. He was coming the best of them all, and was right there. Question has to be distance. His lone 2 turn race was a disaster. He has 3 wins in 5 career starts, but none over 5 1/2 furlongs.



Pepe Tono: First career race on grass last out at this very distance wasn't too shabby. The Empire Maker/A.P. Indy lines are strong, and connections put this guy on a fast track after a January Maiden win. A couple of Graded Stakes later and he lands here after the move to turf. His natural running style screams turf, and he may even need longer, or maybe even a deep closing turf sprinter. Incredibly interesting entry that should be a price.


Artie B Good: Pops was a great Turf Miler that won the BC Mile. He got switched to the green stuff last out, and was definitely coming late in the same race as Texas Wedge . Could be a solid pedigree play at the very least.



Desert Stone: Back-to-back wins and a full-time turfer. Nakatani is a turf genius and Baltas should have this guy ready. Has to be considered as a major contender.


Shane Zain: Turf to dirt, and now back to turf. Hasn't been less than 31/1 in his last 3 outings. Rolls in off of a solid work, and was purchased for $370K. Is this a last ditch effort from the O'neill barn before he hits the MC ranks? He will be a large price.


Restrainedvengence: Should be on the front end, and if not, hard to see much chance. Last two are a little troubling in which they put the blinkers on, and are immediately taking them off. Has some solid wins, but can't see a wire job with this field.


Faversham: California Chrome brother hasn't exactly met many expectations. The Maiden buster at 17/1 was solid though, and on turf. Likely needs to take an even bigger step forward to see the Trifecta in here.



Move Over: Cross off a single race in the states where he was steadied, and his form is as good as any. Beaten some of his best rivals in here as well. Classic stalking turf horse with some late punch. Major contender that could easily be the post time favorite.


Calexman: This ding-dong front-runner has had some solid success. Little doubt where he will (or should) be early. Working well since his last, and is in very solid form. Distance and new jock are the concern, along with the post. Wouldn't be surprised if he is ML favorite that goes off at 5 or 6/1.



Heartsfullofstars: His last two down the hill at Santa are really interesting. He simply needs more distance, and not a massive downhill start form those in front of him. He is only 1 for 8, for really hasn't ran a bad race to date. Only question has to be Nakatani on the and not here.



Soltero: Another who does his best work on the front end, and just broke his maiden. Smokin' Joe stays aboard, and D'Amato is no slouch. Breeding is there, and he was favored over the as odds on just 2 back. Could be a really nice price.


Afleet Ascent: Pure front-runner draws the 13 hole With Desormeaux aboard, maybe they change things up and come form not only back, but well back? Speed/fade has been his calling card. Thus a change up could well be what is needed anyway.



Respect the Hustle: Broke his maiden here, at the distance, and on the surface. Not sure he has improved all that much over the next 6 races. Hard to see much against this field form this post as his late punch isn't much.


AE
AE They get in, I'll write something.


SUMMARY: This thing is WIDE open. Eyeing the early. Should be a fantastic betting race. Almost every horse entered has some interesting angles.
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Old 07-17-2018, 07:47 PM   #2
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As you say a tough race, will go with the then to complete the exotics.
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Old 07-17-2018, 10:07 PM   #3
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Oceanside

10 deserves respect. He has been solid on turf, has a win at DMR, and seems OK with distance on dirt.
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Old 07-17-2018, 10:57 PM   #4
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Looks to contend.

Tough race to handicap.

has improved under new hands, but he's a nice long shot, not a nice 5/1 shot...

Looks like he'll be right there if he doesn't lug in.


I feel like I'm going too chalky for a race like this...

If I want to get silly; Artie B Good may be able to surge into a trifecta or superfecta late. Maybe more if he gets a trip and it collapses up front. Stewart Elliott will get a nice arm workout.
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Old 07-17-2018, 11:31 PM   #5
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Arawak- beaten 1/2 length by Untamed Domain in the American Turf two back. Battle tested. Likely to use underneath.

Texas Wedge- Prat and Miller...don't love the stretch from 6.5 to a mile, and a big class jump but respect enough to use underneath.

Restrainedvengeance- broke his maiden gate to wire at a mile, also beat the on the downhill course. Picks up Evin Roman. Steady ascending figs with some great recent works is good enough for me. My pick.

Move Over: great recent form with 2 months off for Sadler.

I'll cheap out and play the / ex and tri.

WPS on the

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Old 07-18-2018, 12:12 AM   #6
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This race is brutal, I have no real opinion other than the 5 horse is exactly what I mean, buy a middling east coast horse and take them west.
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Old 07-18-2018, 03:59 AM   #7
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Going to get some prices here, race sets up for the late runners.

Pepe Tono

Move Over

Artie B Good

Favorsham

Win bets at 8-1 or higher, exacta box.
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Old 07-18-2018, 08:41 AM   #8
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I love Artie Be Good. The 20-1 line seems high, but I will bet him enthusiastically at 10-1.
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Old 07-18-2018, 01:09 PM   #9
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Old 07-18-2018, 01:34 PM   #10
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I also have to say that on paper, this is a fun, challenging race to handicap. Great job on putting this field together.
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Old 07-18-2018, 02:03 PM   #11
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jay68802 View Post
I also have to say that on paper, this is a fun, challenging race to handicap. Great job on putting this field together.
I seem to remember most years it was split and both had big fields wide open.
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Old 07-18-2018, 02:07 PM   #12
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I'll go with Desert Stone

Good luck.
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Old 07-18-2018, 02:25 PM   #13
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Old 07-18-2018, 02:27 PM   #14
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Quote:
Originally Posted by RunForTheRoses View Post
I seem to remember most years it was split and both had big fields wide open.
The turf course used to limited to 12 runners and now since the BC it can do 14 so I think they would want 14 runners versus say 2, 7 horse fields...since they are getting 10-12 horse fields in the other races anyways.
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Old 07-18-2018, 05:14 PM   #15
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Tough race - lots of unknowns.
BRIS profile says inside closers do well. BLs at 1/4 - 4, 1/2 - 2.5

I used TFUS Free race adjusted times to do a Sartin look at the race.

I come up with

Looks good late both on velocity and on TF Late Pace 7-2
Looks super across the board, topping most columns 5-1
Top jock on the rail, cuts back from 9 and should like the mile 5-1

Afleet Ascent looks like he can get into the exotics

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Last edited by Tom; 07-18-2018 at 05:15 PM.
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