Most vulnerable types of races where favorite is consistently beaten?

[lefty359]

I like to bet against fvs that drop 2 lvls or more off a good race.I like to bet against any horse that's dropping of a win.
But no matter what, some of these types will still beat you time to time.

[elhelmete]

I have studied this forensically for exactly zero minutes, but my favorite is mid-upper level MCL at boutique tracks.

[Tom]

For a quick snapshot -

Belmont 10/4/15- 6-30-18
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Claiming nw2lt - all

163 races 56 won by the favorite (34%)
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Claiming nw3lt - all

110 races 49 won by the favorite (30%)
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Claiming open - all

284 races 92 wqon by the favorite (32%)
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[davew]

The favorites do not do very well when there are 3 or more contenders that are just as good.


What are you considering a favorite, and how would that info help you in a multiple race bet like Pick 3,4,5,6...

[Robert Fischer]

cheap races can be chaotic, but I feel like you have to pass when there are favorites with strong cheap form. Often these are claim repeaters and/or have high% trainers/owners. Big difference between default favorites and horses that have carved a niche there.

Steep drops are fuzzy for me. Flip a coin. I try to avoid betting against steep-drop favs who seem to have class related limiting factors. Say a fav has been dueling hot paces at a higher class and drops today, he may get the relief he needs.


long layoff horses are fuzzy for me. Will a horse be the same? Is this a new group? Do they want to win today? Is this a prep? Is it a prep for a higher class level, or would they be happy back in this same class level?


I don't have strong rules for any of these three types.

[Robert Fischer]

not vulnerable but value-vulnerable

parx 3 , (sorry just a few mtp)

got an entry and a flashy 1ster taking most of the money... these aren't necessarily strong opinions for the public 1 and 6

2,4,7,8 are viable alternatives

[Robert Fischer]

Originally Posted by Robert Fischer

not vulnerable but value-vulnerable

parx 3 , (sorry just a few mtp)

got an entry and a flashy 1ster taking most of the money... these aren't necessarily strong opinions for the public 1 and 6

2,4,7,8 are viable alternatives

So while it wasn't what I would call a 'vulnerable' situation, you had the public making a 'reach' in terms of value. And like Lebron or Jordan or Bird or Pistol Pete would say "you reach, I teach".
Note the emphasis on the 7 because of her low odds.

PRX #3 $2 Win 7 $2.00 $6.00 + $4.00
PRX #3 $2 Win 7 $2.00 $6.00 + $4.00
PRX #3 $2 Win 2, 4, 7, 8 $8.00 $6.00 - $2.00

[letswastemoney]

I do better in stakes races where there's a huge emotional fan favorite with some flaws. It's easier for me, because I have no emotion in handicapping so I can easily go against that kind of horse.

Claiming races are a lot tougher even though they're more chaotic.

[FakeNameChanged]

Originally Posted by Robert Fischer

not vulnerable but value-vulnerable

parx 3 , (sorry just a few mtp)

got an entry and a flashy 1ster taking most of the money... these aren't necessarily strong opinions for the public 1 and 6

2,4,7,8 are viable alternatives

Robert, great analysis. In this race, the #6 opened at 4/5 compared to it's 3-1 ML. In relation to the 7 in DD payouts/ML odds, their ratios were switched. #6 was 15.00/3=5.0 an #7 was 15.60/5=3.1, which was the lowest DD odds ratio. Not surprisingly, the #9 was 64.00 DD/15-1ML= 4.2. That was the #2 DD odds ratio, and gives the 34.60 exacta. Not surprisingly, at 15-1, the #9 also opened at 8-1, which isn't quite my 50% minimum I like to see vs. ML. The favored 6 was the only other one with early money. I wish it was always this obvious.

If you played the 4th race at Parx, I'd love to hear how you saw it pre-race. I wrote notes on my program that this race is too contentious from a toteboard analysis. Pre-race, I made two notes on eventual winner and placer who both ran pace-races in l.r. with the 6 having the highest pace in last race. There were no less than five horses having heavy early money and DD odds ratios plays. Surprisingly the winner, #6 opened at 19-1 with a completely believable 9-5 ML. On the other hand, the #7-Joe the boss, with a 15-1 ML opened as the 5/2 favorite. #2First Degreee Burn with a 10-1 ML opened at 7/2. Most of early money betdowns, made abs. no sense to me, but that didn't keep me from being stupid. Lesson being, that the #6 was a valid ML and PT odds favorite.

[CincyHorseplayer]

I don't have a huge database but in a little over 1,000 turf races horses that are less than 2-1 only win at 13%.

[GMB@BP]

Originally Posted by CincyHorseplayer

I don't have a huge database but in a little over 1,000 turf races horses that are less than 2-1 only win at 13%.

Not sure on your stat, i have 36% win percentage in 618 races with a horse that was at 0-2/1 with a 0.82 ROI. I would need another month of data to get 1000 races though but doubt it changes by more than a percentage.

[tophatmert]

Just a feel thing for me but I have been betting against super trainers who are favored but not as heavily as they should be. When you think the Navarro ML 2-1 favorite is good value at 3-1 you may be in for some disappointment. I feel more confident in a bad trainer at 4-1 then I do "insert super trainer here" at 4-1.

[Robert Fischer]

Originally Posted by Whosonfirst

Robert, great analysis. In this race, the #6 opened at 4/5 compared to it's 3-1 ML. In relation to the 7 in DD payouts/ML odds, their ratios were switched. #6 was 15.00/3=5.0 an #7 was 15.60/5=3.1, which was the lowest DD odds ratio. Not surprisingly, the #9 was 64.00 DD/15-1ML= 4.2. That was the #2 DD odds ratio, and gives the 34.60 exacta. Not surprisingly, at 15-1, the #9 also opened at 8-1, which isn't quite my 50% minimum I like to see vs. ML. The favored 6 was the only other one with early money. I wish it was always this obvious.

If you played the 4th race at Parx, I'd love to hear how you saw it pre-race. I wrote notes on my program that this race is too contentious from a toteboard analysis. Pre-race, I made two notes on eventual winner and placer who both ran pace-races in l.r. with the 6 having the highest pace in last race. There were no less than five horses having heavy early money and DD odds ratios plays. Surprisingly the winner, #6 opened at 19-1 with a completely believable 9-5 ML. On the other hand, the #7-Joe the boss, with a 15-1 ML opened as the 5/2 favorite. #2First Degreee Burn with a 10-1 ML opened at 7/2. Most of early money betdowns, made abs. no sense to me, but that didn't keep me from being stupid. Lesson being, that the #6 was a valid ML and PT odds favorite.

Parx 4 I skipped for value concerns after looking at the morning line and thinking the two favorites (6 and 3) were both strong and not worth trying to beat.
Looks like the #2 actually was bet down to 2nd choice, but it did end up coming out 6-2-3 for a Tri that paid only $48 for $2.
On the other hand, - if you did love the #6, the prices 5.40 3.20 2.60 were generous enough.

I don't know if the barns bet early or there is some pool manipulation going on, but some of the prices have been opening a bit funny lately

I like Parx as an occasional track to play. Takeout is pretty high on some of those bets. Money (close to post) seems to be pretty sharp as to whether a horse is 'live' today or not across several contenders.

[GMB@BP]

Originally Posted by tophatmert

Just a feel thing for me but I have been betting against super trainers who are favored but not as heavily as they should be. When you think the Navarro ML 2-1 favorite is good value at 3-1 you may be in for some disappointment. I feel more confident in a bad trainer at 4-1 then I do "insert super trainer here" at 4-1.

Numbers dont really dont show that though.

I did a query, super trainers, Morning line fav that went off at 7/2 or more, so these are horses who were under bet.

The win percentage drops to 17%, but that lines up statistically with the odds range I did, and the ROI is dang close to break even. So they are still performing from a betting standpoint. Maybe your missing some of the key signs of nonperformance from these trainers but odds based they still do well.

[AndyC]

Originally Posted by GMB@BP

Not sure on your stat, i have 36% win percentage in 618 races with a horse that was at 0-2/1 with a 0.82 ROI. I would need another month of data to get 1000 races though but doubt it changes by more than a percentage.

Trying to determine vulnerable favorites based on race type is a fool's game. If a disparity did exist it would soon be discovered and the edge would quickly dry up. Vulnerable favorites need to be found on a horse-by-horse basis and not by looking at a raw stat such as % of winning favorites. Your analysis is exactly what is needed because odds are considered (ROI) along with winning percentage.