Final Fractions

[Tom]

Free on the internet......


http://www.americanturf.com/download...ripleCrown.pdf

[Tom]

This one too...
http://www.americanturf.com/download..._checklist.pdf

[sbcaris]

Biscuit: The qualifiers on my final fraction indicator this year are as follows:

Classic Empire
Always Dreaming
Patch
Girvin
Gunnevera
Practical Joke
Sonneteer
Lookin at Lee

The reason why State of Honor does not qualify is because he lost 2 and a half lengths from the six furlong call to the finish of the Florida Derby.

The reason why Hence does not qualify is because the Sunland Derby is not a big 6 prep race.

Thunder Snow does not qualify because the UAE Derby is not a big 6 prep race.

The big 6 preps are the SA Derby, Bluegrass, Wood Memorial, Ark Derby, Florida Derby and Louisiana Derby.

[PowerUpPaynter]

Originally Posted by sbcaris

Biscuit: The qualifiers on my final fraction indicator this year are as follows:

Classic Empire
Always Dreaming
Patch
Girvin
Gunnevera
Practical Joke
Sonneteer
Lookin at Lee

The reason why State of Honor does not qualify is because he lost 2 and a half lengths from the six furlong call to the finish of the Florida Derby.

The reason why Hence does not qualify is because the Sunland Derby is not a big 6 prep race.

Thunder Snow does not qualify because the UAE Derby is not a big 6 prep race.

The big 6 preps are the SA Derby, Bluegrass, Wood Memorial, Ark Derby, Florida Derby and Louisiana Derby.

And of those:

Classic Empire, Patch, Gunnevera are the only 3 have buckpasser in the X.

I really like Gunnevera and love Patch to clunk up at a price.

[señorclipclop]

Originally Posted by sbcaris

Biscuit: The qualifiers on my final fraction indicator this year are as follows:

Classic Empire
Always Dreaming
Patch
Girvin
Gunnevera
Practical Joke
Sonneteer
Lookin at Lee

The reason why State of Honor does not qualify is because he lost 2 and a half lengths from the six furlong call to the finish of the Florida Derby.

The reason why Hence does not qualify is because the Sunland Derby is not a big 6 prep race.

Thunder Snow does not qualify because the UAE Derby is not a big 6 prep race.

The big 6 preps are the SA Derby, Bluegrass, Wood Memorial, Ark Derby, Florida Derby and Louisiana Derby.

My view, middle four aren't good enough/don't have the stamina, second one is set up for a bounce and BMS is weak, and the bottom two will have too much to do in the stretch.

[Robert Fischer]

Patch is interesting. He kind of shadowed Girven in the LaD.

In order to like him, you have to be in the camp that predicts improvement.
Derby is a tough race to improve in.

[sbcaris]

Many Derby winners improved their Beyer speed figs from their last race. Here is a list of those that improved:

Orb had a 97 in his last start and got a 104 in the Ky Derby
Ill Have Another had a 95 in his last start and got a 101 in the Ky Derby
Animal Kingdom had a 94 in his last start and a 103 in the Derby.
Super Saver had a 98 in his last start and a 104 in the Derby.
Mine that Bird went from an 80 in his last start to a 105 in the Derby

So in retrospect 5 of the last 8 Derby winners improved their Beyer speed figure from their last prep race to the Ky Derby (at least by a minimum of 6 Beyer points)

[Sinner369]

Originally Posted by sbcaris

Many Derby winners improved their Beyer speed figs from their last race. Here is a list of those that improved:

Orb had a 97 in his last start and got a 104 in the Ky Derby
Ill Have Another had a 95 in his last start and got a 101 in the Ky Derby
Animal Kingdom had a 94 in his last start and a 103 in the Derby.
Super Saver had a 98 in his last start and a 104 in the Derby.
Mine that Bird went from an 80 in his last start to a 105 in the Derby

So in retrospect 5 of the last 8 Derby winners improved their Beyer speed figure from their last prep race to the Ky Derby (at least by a minimum of 6 Beyer points)

That's fine but more interested in WHY?..............cause they are relatively young horses and the idea is to fine who will improve the most on the first Saturday in May!

[PowerUpPaynter]

Originally Posted by sbcaris

Many Derby winners improved their Beyer speed figs from their last race. Here is a list of those that improved:

Orb had a 97 in his last start and got a 104 in the Ky Derby
Ill Have Another had a 95 in his last start and got a 101 in the Ky Derby
Animal Kingdom had a 94 in his last start and a 103 in the Derby.
Super Saver had a 98 in his last start and a 104 in the Derby.
Mine that Bird went from an 80 in his last start to a 105 in the Derby

So in retrospect 5 of the last 8 Derby winners improved their Beyer speed figure from their last prep race to the Ky Derby (at least by a minimum of 6 Beyer points)

Stan will you follow your Buckpasser X & fast closinf fractions theory in your pick again this year? If so is it fair to say its down to Gunnevera, Patch, and Classic Empire then?

[f2tornado]

Originally Posted by PowerUpPaynter

Stan will you follow your Buckpasser X & fast closinf fractions theory in your pick again this year? If so is it fair to say its down to Gunnevera, Patch, and Classic Empire then?

Remember the Raise A Native sire line rules. Those with fast fractions get 4 more points per the extremely strong impact value. Always Dreaming, Classic Empire, (and Lookin at Lee if he gets a gate). I'm not fighting those stats. The chalk pair will be on top all my wagers and I will sprinkle in some Hence. I'm guessing Classic Empire will top the checklist. I'll probably buy the TC checklist this year. The Derby winner usually one of the top two on the sheet.

[dballard125]

Originally Posted by f2tornado

Remember the Raise A Native sire line rules. Those with fast fractions get 4 more points per the extremely strong impact value. Always Dreaming, Classic Empire, (and Lookin at Lee if he gets a gate). I'm not fighting those stats. The chalk pair will be on top all my wagers and I will sprinkle in some Hence. I'm guessing Classic Empire will top the checklist. I'll probably buy the TC checklist this year. The Derby winner usually one of the top two on the sheet.

Where is Gunny on your list right now? Like you, I don't plan to try and buck the odds. To me, four stand out based on the buckpasser, RAN, final 3/8 angles. That's CE, AD, Hence, and Gunny. The next tier for me is Patch, IWC, and State of Honor.

[f2tornado]

Originally Posted by dballard125

Where is Gunny on your list right now?

I have him 4th on my very tentative list behind Dreaming, Empire, and Hence. I suspect the pace will be moderately hot and hold up too well for him to get up front. This is a rare year I like several horses on top so I'm dumping this deep closer from the win. He remains a logical exotics play. But if one plays him underneath then should also consider in tandem with Lookin at Lee who might just be the better closer and certainly at longer odds.

[dballard125]

Originally Posted by f2tornado

I have him 4th on my very tentative list behind Dreaming, Empire, and Hence. I suspect the pace will be moderately hot and hold up too well for him to get up front. This is a rare year I like several horses on top so I'm dumping this deep closer from the win. He remains a logical exotics play. But if one plays him underneath then should also consider in tandem with Lookin at Lee who might just be the better closer and certainly at longer odds.

Looking At Lee is becoming more intriguing to me as well. He got the most drunken clown show ride of all-time in the Arkansas and still finished a good 3rd. RAN sire line and fast final times. I'll be including him in my exotic plays.

[Secondbest]

Unless I read wrong Isn't Classic Empire the only qualifier with both Buck X and RAN bloodline.

[PowerUpPaynter]

Originally Posted by Secondbest

Unless I read wrong Isn't Classic Empire the only qualifier with both Buck X and RAN bloodline.

Hence has both as well