Derby Trail 2017 Blown Up!

[f2tornado]

23.28 47.08 110.75 147.47.

That's a sub 37 final 3/8th in the FL Derby on a RAN with a rider who's held the roses. Reminds me a bit of AP two years ago. Ran slow then took off. I'm gonna have to use this one. Already played some Future exactas.

[PowerUpPaynter]

Gulfstream was a drag strip yesterday and on top of that there was timing issues. Can the times and 97 beyer ran by Always Dreaming be trusted? Based on the visual impressiveness and the times I will likely be forced use him in exotic tickets but i will do so with caution.

[f2tornado]

The Equibase figure was 100 which is par this decade. Orb had a 98. Even if the time was off by a second it was still fast. RAN horses with fast fractions have a massive impact value in the Derby. Throw in a winning pilot and a trainer who can help dictate the pace by virtue of controlling a quarter of the gates makes it a logical choice. We still have some big preps coming up and I'm anxious to see how a few run but until then I locked in a bunch of Future exacta wagers with this Pletcher. Gunnevera ran the Orb style race and might be this year's Exagerator. I don't think an extra panel would have got him the win yesterday.

[Robert Fischer]

If we get another moderate-paced Derby, Always Dreaming has a real shot at winning.
He can break forward, rate, and shows a good response/kick in the lane.

The problem is that we've never seen him face adversity.
In the Florida Derby his job was basically "don't get run over by Saez, be yourself, and out-kick future Queen's Plate bet-against State of Honor.

Always Dreaming's 3 route races have all been dream trips.

This is also exactly the same horse as he was on Saturday morning, but now he's top-5 in everyone's derby dozen. We got odds of 5-2 yesterday, vs an even-money shot who had less chance of winning than he did. Moving forward, the value is flip-flopped.

Negatives aside, he has to be respected.

[Mc990]

Originally Posted by f2tornado

The Equibase figure was 100 which is par this decade. Orb had a 98. Even if the time was off by a second it was still fast. RAN horses with fast fractions have a massive impact value in the Derby. Throw in a winning pilot and a trainer who can help dictate the pace by virtue of controlling a quarter of the gates makes it a logical choice. We still have some big preps coming up and I'm anxious to see how a few run but until then I locked in a bunch of Future exacta wagers with this Pletcher. Gunnevera ran the Orb style race and might be this year's Exagerator. I don't think an extra panel would have got him the win yesterday.

I personally think Gunnevera is cooked. The FOY was a huge new top to a monster figure and he predictably bounced from it. The problem is, the FOY is his only race that makes him a player in the derby.... Where does he go from here? I think he's probably more likely to not make the gate than he is to win.

Always Dreaming will be the quintessential bet against derby day. Again, this one race makes him fast enough but it was a huge top... He also figures to take money from the "once a year" crowd (for whatever that's worth). I don't see how he can be value... 7-1 currently in the future pool. Ridiculous

[f2tornado]

Originally Posted by Robert Fischer

Always Dreaming's 3 route races have all been dream trips.

I agree, but said same thing about AP two years ago. I also mocked AP's slow pace in the Rebel... but he closed so nice. I basically talked myself out of making a nice future wager bet on AP when the odds were generous. This charge also has similar top side breeding to AP. I'll leave the comparisons there for now. Always Dreaming is now the 6-1 favorite in the final Future wager. Fair, but not great. Perhaps 4-1 Derby day and less if McCraken fails this week. There's still some nice value in the exacta pool with the shortest straight bet over McCraken currently offering 65-1. I expect those to drift a little lower before the pool closes.

[PowerUpPaynter]

Originally Posted by Robert Fischer

If we get another moderate-paced Derby, Always Dreaming has a real shot at winning.
He can break forward, rate, and shows a good response/kick in the lane.

The problem is that we've never seen him face adversity.
In the Florida Derby his job was basically "don't get run over by Saez, be yourself, and out-kick future Queen's Plate bet-against State of Honor.

Always Dreaming's 3 route races have all been dream trips.

This is also exactly the same horse as he was on Saturday morning, but now he's top-5 in everyone's derby dozen. We got odds of 5-2 yesterday, vs an even-money shot who had less chance of winning than he did. Moving forward, the value is flip-flopped.

Negatives aside, he has to be respected.

American Pharoah never saw adversity either. I think thats over rated

[Robert Fischer]

Originally Posted by PowerUpPaynter

American Pharoah never saw adversity either. I think thats over rated

maybe so.

These posts were from 4-11-15, and 4-13-15:

Originally Posted by Robert Fischer

He looks better than Bernardini.

This could be a triple crown, with good health, and some racing luck.

Originally Posted by Robert Fischer

I agree, this is a strong crop.

In a normal year, a horse like Carpe Diem, or Dortmund, would be a worthy favorite.

If any horse wins the triple crown again, it will be very special because of the difficulty and rarity alone. If American Pharoah wins the triple crown this year, it will really stamp him among the modern greats.

Don't have that feeling about Always Dreaming, but I'm wrong a lot of the time.

Don't let me talk you off a future-wager. I'm just giving my opinion on the horse. He has a shot.

[Sinner369]

"The problem is that we've never seen him face adversity.
In the Florida Derby his job was basically "don't get run over by Saez, be yourself, and out-kick future Queen's Plate bet-against State of Honor.

Always Dreaming's 3 route races have all been dream trips. "

Isn't that what you want in a race horse?.............AD has enough tactical early speed to get into position and enough stamina to have a late kick to win the race.

[f2tornado]

Originally Posted by Mc990

...Always Dreaming will be the quintessential bet against derby day. Again, this one race makes him fast enough but it was a huge top... He also figures to take money from the "once a year" crowd (for whatever that's worth). I don't see how he can be value... 7-1 currently in the future pool. Ridiculous

Agree 7-1 (and now 6-1) is not value at this time given there are four big preps to go and a few potential monsters in them. I already have McCraken covered to some extent in previous Future wagers so played the Florida Derby winner in the exacta this time. Florida Derby winners and even board hitters have done very well in Triple Crown races. Recent FL Derby winners to KY Derby winners include Nyquist, Orb, Big Brown, Barbaro, and Monarchos. That's about one in three Derby winners in the last decade and a half. Further, a couple other solid contenders had to drop out (Constitution, Dialed In and Quality Road). Throw in the Raise A Native sire line angle which have won twice as many as statistical chance, then add in a fast final 3/8th angle which win close to 80% along with a Derby winning rider and you see a solid chance. Some will knock Pletcher but he's had few that looked this good after a 9F prep and a few of his better ones were lame before getting to Kentucky.

[Robert Fischer]

If you happen to be picking Irish War Cry to win the Wood, then he's a juicy price @ 22-1

[PowerUpPaynter]

Originally Posted by Robert Fischer

If you happen to be picking Irish War Cry to win the Wood, then he's a juicy price @ 22-1

I love Cloud Computing in the Wood. Hoping to get 15-1 on him next week.

[SoCalCircuit]

Originally Posted by PowerUpPaynter

I love Cloud Computing in the Wood. Hoping to get 15-1 on him next week.

Lol what? You're not even gonna get anything close to that.

[PowerUpPaynter]

Originally Posted by SoCalCircuit

Lol what? You're not even gonna get anything close to that.

yeah your right, that blows. was hoping he was flying under the radar and Irish War Cry being from Jersey will take local fan money, Batttalion Runner I feel has more hype than CC and Mo Town maybe some people would write off the last tank. But based on CC futures ending odds. hes no secret...

[f2tornado]

Originally Posted by PowerUpPaynter

But based on CC futures ending odds. hes no secret...

Correct. He got a big TFUS figure in the Gotham and has a decent pedigree. I love the MrP's at 9F... but what I expect will be his two biggest competitors have the same. It's not a gimme. I did put him underneath AD for $3 in the future wager exacta @ 435-1.