POST KENTUCKY DERBY PICKS HERE

[The WindfallAngler]

$2 super-hi-5, cold ($2)
10
16
2
20
19


$1 superfecta ($24)
10
2 6 19
20
2 5 6 7 8 9 16 13 19


$1 trifecta ($24)
10
2 16 19 20
2 6 7 8 9 16 19


2$ trifecta ( $18 )
10
20
2 5 6 7 8 9 16 13 19


$3 exacta ($12)
10
2 16 19 20


$1 trifecta/"saver" ...in the event BB's speed stays a sloppy trip ($24)
20
2 10 16 19
2 6 7 8 9 16 19
_____

That is all. Happy Derby Day, and
Be Well!

[DrunkenHorseplayer]

$60 EX 6-2
$30 TRI 6-2-20
$10 SUPE 6-2-20-10

[Indulto]

Kentucky Derby 05/03/2008

$1 Tri: 19 // 4,6,9,10,13,20 // 4,6,9,10,13,20 (1*6*5) [30.00]
$1 Tri: 4,6,9,10,13,20 // 19 // 4,6,9,10,13,20 [60.00]
$1 Tri: 4,6,9,10,13,20 // 4,6,9,10,13,20 // 19 [90.00]
$1 Sup: 20 // 9,10 // 4,6,13 // 19 [96.00]
$1 Sup: 20 // 6,13 // 10 // 19 [98.00]
$1 Sup: 20 // 4 // 9,10 // 19 [100.00]

[Sundown]

$5 Exacta box 5,8,9,10,12 ($100)

good luck

[sam i am]

$1 Tri
12,19/2,4,8,9,12,13,19/2,4,5,8,9,12,13,17,19,20 $96

$1 exb
19/12,13

[OTM Al]

$20 Exacta 10/9+12+19
$2 Tri Key 10/6+8+9+12+19

[BIG RED]

$20 ex...9,10/9,10,20

$5 tri...9,10/9,10,20/9,10,20

[canleakid]

#5.00 ex. box 5-6-9-19-20=$100.00

[GaryG]

$12 win #14
$1 trifecta: 20 / 9-10-14-19 / 2-4-5-6-8-9-10-13-14-15-16-19 = $44
$1 trifecta: 10 / 9-14-19-20 / 2-4-5-6-8-9-13-14-15-16-19-20 = $44

[mrhorseplayer]

$1 ex 4,5,13/6,9,16,18 $12
$1 ex 1,9,10,14,1618/1,4,5,9,13,16,18,20 $52

$10 w,p,s 18 $30

$1 ex boxl 1,5,9 $6



totals $100

[dylbert]

$1 Super Hi 5: 6,9,10 // 6,9,10 // 6,9,10 // 8,11,14,19 // 8,11,14,19 = 72

$1 Tri: 6,9,10 // 6,9,10 // 8,11,14,19 = 24

$1 Exacta Box: 6,11

$1 Exacta Box: 15,17

Good Luck to All Today... headed to Evangeline Downs for great afternoon of racing & beyond!

[eclecticapper]

$10 exacta 17 / 9-18-19-20 = $40

$3 exacta 9-18-19-20 / 17 = $12

$2 exacta 17 / 1-2-3-4-5-6-7-8-10-11-12-13-14-15-16 = $30

$1 exacta 1-2-3-4-5-6-7-8-10-11-12-13-14-15-16 / 17 = $15

$3 win #17 Cowboy Cal

[peteymyboy]

8 tri box 8-10-20

2 ex box 8-20

[michiken]

I really have no clue this year as I do not see a standout:

$2 exactas:

$2 Exacta: 1,5,16 / 6,8,11,12,18,20 = 36

$2 Exacta: 6,8,11,12,18,20, / 1,5,16 = 36

$1 tri:

10,20 / 1,6,9,15 / 1,6,8,16 = $28

[Gordon Pine]

Usually the key to the Derby has been:

1. Pick a horse who has recent speed figures that are in the ballpark of the best of the competition.
2. Insist on value.

I use my standard mechanical contender-selection method in the Derby. I take the highest two of each horse’s last three speed figures and average them. That gives me a contender figure for each horse. (If there are only two races available in the pps, I average them. If there is only one race available, I use that as the number.) I then take the top five horses as my contenders. If anybody is tied for fifth, I include them. This is a bold contender-screening process that sometimes jumps up and bites me in a particular race. But in the long run it's worked.

I’m using Jim Cramer speed figures rather than Beyer speed figures. (Comparing my contender figures with previous years, it looks like we have a relatively weak field here.) So, in this year’s Derby, here are my five contenders:

Big Truck: 92.5 contender rating
Pyro: 89.5 contender rating
Smooth Air: 93.5 contender rating
Cowboy Cal: 89.5 contender rating
Big Brown: 97 contender rating

Here's my betting line:

Horse---------Fair Odds--------Bet Odds------ML Odds
Big Brow---------9/5-------------7/2----------3/1
Cowboy Cal-------4/1-------------8/1---------20/1
Smooth Air------ 7/1------------14/1---------20/1
Pyro-------------8/1------------17/1---------20/1
Big Truck -------8/1------------17/1---------50/1

Big Brown looks dominant by his pps and his contender rating, but it's unlikely I'll have him to win because he'll be bet down too low in the win pool. If you're only looking for bragging rights, he's got to be the horse. My sentimental favorite is Big Truck -- 50/1 odds always make me sentimental. I stuck Big Truck in there because I like his second and third races back. Looking at the video of his last race, the Blue Grass, it looks like the jock was water-skiing around the far turn in traffic, which eliminates a horse's chances in a tough prep race like that. Throw that race out, and he's definitely worth a shot at 50/1.

I’ll bet the overlays to win, box them in the exacta, and wheel them in the exacta top and bottom to the top two favorites. So, if the morning line odds are similar to the track odds, I’m likely to have my typical multiple longshot win bet on four horses: Cowboy Cal, Smooth Air, Pyro and Big Truck. Then I'll have what amounts to a five-horse exacta box on all five contenders, including Big Brown. (Not my typical betting strategy, but it's worked for me in the Derby.) Good luck.