Beyer Bashers Unite!

[PaceAdvantage]

Here are my Beyer picks for the Preakness card at Pimlico using CJ rules posted in the Mechancial Beyer System thread:

Race 1:
Race 2:
Race 3:
Race 4:
Race 5:
Race 6:
Race 7:
Race 8:
Race 9:
Race 10:
Race 11:
Race 12:
Race 13: PASS

Any Beyer bashers care to join in the fun with their anti-Beyer picks?

[rastajenk]

I lost track of the MBS thread about halfway thru, so I gotta ask: how did you land on the 3 in the Preakness? That would take some strange mechanics, seems to me.

[nobeyerspls]

Now you have me worried - my Preakness picks are 9-3-7 so I came up with two of yours. Never have done well with this race but two of my best scores were in the Belmont.
Didn't do the entire Pimlico card but I did construct a late pick3 with the Preakness in the middle. The numbers are - 1,4/3,7,9/2,4 for $12 bucks.
How will you compute your ROI? $2win on all 3? Just curious.
I wasn't sure if your challenge was pace figures versus the bsf's or no figures versus them. Probably aren't too many like me who never look at the bsf's and have never seen a pace figure.
Good luck and thanks for taking the time to do this.

[Tom]

For all the chest pounding and big talk, I see no action here.
Must be talk is cheap.

[McSock]

I stopped reading the original post on this subject when it became another no "correct" answer Zenyatta thread.
May I ask what rules you used for the beyers selections?

[Tom]

I think it is Beyer from last race on this surface, within a half furlong and 90 days.

[WinterTriangle]

Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage

Here are my Beyer picks for the Preakness card at Pimlico using CJ rules posted in the Mechancial Beyer System thread:

Race 1:
Race 2:
Race 3:
Race 4:
Race 5:
Race 6:
Race 7:
Race 8:
Race 9:
Race 10:
Race 11:
Race 12:
Race 13: PASS

Any Beyer bashers care to join in the fun with their anti-Beyer picks?

Just found some time to calculate the results.

I based it on a typical way people might play them:
*any* of the numers coming in for a $2 win bet
Boxing 3 numbers for a $2 exacta ($12)
Boxing 3 numbers for a $2 trifecta ($12)


Results:
1) Lost $2, lost $12, and lost $12
2) Lost $2, lost $12, and lost $12
3) $6.20 win, lost $12, and lost $12
4) Lost $2, lost $12, and lost $12
5) $9.40 win, $73.40 win, and lost $12
6) $3.40 win, lost $12, and lost $12
7) $6.80 win, $29.40 win, and lost $12
8) Lost $2, lost $12, and lost $12
9) $3.80 win, lost 12, and lost $12
0) Lost $2, lost $12, and lost $12
1) Lost $2, lost $12, and lost $12
2) $6.80 win, lost $12 and lost $12


total wagered:
$2 win bet on each 3 horses = 36 win bets x $2 = $72.00
$12 ($2 exacta wager) = 12 bets x $12.00 = $144.00
$12 ($2 trifecta wager) = 12 bets x $12.00 = $144.00

Total wagered: $360.00
Total won: $139.20
Total profit: $0
Total loss for wagering 12 races: -229.80


I realize of course, that these numbers are only supposed to provide "guidelines" for the bettor, and they are supposed to play them along with their own numbers.

It wasn't profitable today, although I admit nobody can judge by one day.

Still, -$229.80 is a huge loss based on wagering $360.00. It would be for me.

[Light]

Originally Posted by WinterTriangle

Total loss for wagering 12 races: -229.80

Worse than TLG and CWD's combined. Beyer sucks.

[Tom]

Betting the top horse only - Bet $24, Return $6.40

Flat bet profit for the BC, the Derby card and the Preakness card.
Using no real handicapping - just a mechanical Beyer approach!
No wonder the detractors are busy asking for NDAs and avoiding the real world!

[Tom]

Originally Posted by Light

Worse than TLG and CWD's combined. Beyer sucks.

But where was your courage BEFORE the races?
To scared to go up against the mechanical approach?

Flat bet profit using the top fig.
No one said anything about exacta or anything else.
You had your change light, and you failed to step up to the plate.
You are forever banished to the "all talkie no walkie" crowd.

[WinterTriangle]

Light, why are you bringing in other handicappers in this topic?

Originally Posted by Tom

Flat bet profit using the top fig.
No one said anything about exacta or anything else.

Tom, then what are the other numbers even there for? All I could think of was either for possible win wagers, or for exotics? If they aren't for use as win bets or for use in exotics, then what are they for?

So----- a flat bet profit using just the top figure---profit is $6.40 for the day (actually, I think I added wrong, I got alittle higher number?).

Since I handicap myself, so that would not even begin to cover the value of my time----but I do see your point if a punter wanted to just punch in those first numbers and show a $7.20 profit for the day for basically doing *nothing*.....he's ahead.

But this also assumes they did not have to pay for the information? and then they have to have internet access to log in and play them, which are also expenses, right?





I just calcualted the results. I know Pace has broad shoulders or he wouldn't even put stuff out for comment (thanks Pace). it's a one day experimet, dunno how light can draw the vast conclusions he did about people sucking, although TODAY did suck using this model.



As for playing along, most people were in the other topics for pimlico, the preakness and triple crown topics, etc. posting their tickets.

[Light]

I actually used a totally mechanical system with the Bris figs today at GG. I generally played the top bris fig in the place pick all. 10 races using only 1 horse a race. I got 9 out of 10 in the place pick all with Bris figs on a $1 investment.

This is how Bris did compared with Beyer.

ToP Beyer horse Pim
W P
1) - -
2) - -
3) 6.20 3.80
4) - -
5) - 5.20
6) 3.40 2.60
7) - -
8) - -
9) 3.80 2.80
10) - -
11) - -
12) - -
Win return $13.40 -44% ROI
Place Return $14.40 -40% ROI

Top Bris horse GG
W P
1) - -
2) - 2.40
3) - 3.00
4)7.60 3.60
5)- 6.40
6)4.80 3.20
7)- 4.60
8)4.20 3.40
9) 10.20 4.00
10) - -

Win return $26.80 +34% ROI
Place return $30.60 +53% ROI

So yeah,Beyers suck and you pay more for them.

[Tom]

Originally Posted by WinterTriangle

Light, why are you bringing in other handicappers in this topic?




Tom, then what are the other numbers even there for? All I could think of was either for possible win wagers, or for exotics? If they aren't for use as win bets or for use in exotics, then what are they for?

So----- a flat bet profit using just the top figure---profit is $6.40 for the day (actually, I think I added wrong, I got alittle higher number?).

Typo - they returned 36.40. ROI of about 1.5 for the day.

Sorry about that.

[Tom]

Originally Posted by Light

So yeah,Beyers suck and you pay more for them.

After the fact. All talkie no walkie. No ballsies.

Where you BEFORE THE RACES?
Where did GG come from - you found a track - AFTER THE FACT - to throw out there? Pathetic! You are PATHETIC!

You failed to step up - now you live with it. Bwaaaaack! Bwaaaack!

[lamboguy]

i promise, those numbers will be better next year.