Mechanical Beyer System

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by cj

I thought the point was to see how she stacked up against males. Even her Classic is a bit slower than the previous year on the same surface, figure wise.

As to fillies in the BC, Miss Alleged won with a 111. Goldikova had a 107 and 109, Six Perfections a 105, Ridgewood Pearl a 114, and Miesque had 117 and 119. Even there, only one female BC winner ran slower.

The point was never to ask how she stacked up against males. That's been the new tactic used by her detractors ever since Rachel lost twice.

I don't think anyone ever compared her to the greatest males. We've been saying she compares well with the greatest fillies of all time.

By the way, you can throw in Raven's Pass as a 110 on synthetic and no one considered him a bum of a male on turf. Perhaps they were more depressed than turf figures to start and that's why even with his adjustment they are still running slow.

If I have a chance on the weekend, I'll post all the synthetic Breeder's Cup figures.

[Fastracehorse]

Originally Posted by Cratos

That wouldn’t be a Beyer system; if adjustments are made, it would be a “Fastracehorse@DRF System” that is Beyer-based.

.........but I am adjusting the Beyer; and that is the key point 4 me: That the Beyer is an accurate tool that measures fairly the ability of a horse. It is a very objective # - it's up to the player to put a subjective spin on it.

fffastt

[Fastracehorse]

[QUOTE=nobeyerspls]

Originally Posted by Tom

What early shortcomings?
You were there in 1975?
He had a big red Flare pen.[/QUOTE

By early I meant after they first appeared in the racing form. When horses shipped-in to a major track from a minor one, an equal bsf didn't matter. Weren't track pars developed because of this? I note the same issue on a gender basis, particularly at the claiming level. I suppose that those relying on the figures adjust for this.

......adjustments can lead to large overlays. Why would U suggest that a player relies on Beyers? They are a potent tool that have their moments.

fffastt

[classhandicapper]

Here are all the BC Beyer figures for Synthetic Races. Relative to the dirt PARs, they are very slow and still look more like turf race PARs even with the new adjustment for 2010 that tweaked them higher by varying amounts.

2009 2008

Classic - Zenyatta 112 Ravens Pass - 110

Ladies Classic - Life is Sweet 107 Zenyatta - 103

Juvenile - Vale of York 91 Midshipman - 91

Juvenile Fillies - She Be Wild 88 Stardom Bound - 94

Sprint - Dancing in Silks 106 Midnight Lute - 112

Dirt Mile - Furthest Land 106 Albertus Maximus - 102

Maraton - Man of Iron 98 Muhannak - 100

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by classhandicapper

Here are all the BC Beyer figures for Synthetic Races. Relative to the dirt PARs, they are very slow and still look more like turf race PARs even with the new adjustment for 2010 that tweaked them higher by varying amounts.

2009 2008

Classic - Zenyatta 112 Ravens Pass - 110

Ladies Classic - Life is Sweet 107 Zenyatta - 103

Juvenile - Vale of York 91 Midshipman - 91

Juvenile Fillies - She Be Wild 88 Stardom Bound - 94

Sprint - Dancing in Silks 106 Midnight Lute - 112

Dirt Mile - Furthest Land 106 Albertus Maximus - 102

Maraton - Man of Iron 98 Muhannak - 100

I should add that if someone is willing to concede based on this data that Beyer figures for high level synthetic races are still slower than dirt on average despite the new adjustment, Zenyatta's 112 was very impressive for a mare.

The trick will eventually be to figure how much slower they are at varying levels and then get into a detailed pace analysis, running style analysis etc... over and above that to refine it further. I have much more data to work with for turf.

Here's some historical BC dirt and turf figures:

http://farewelltokings.com/2009/11/h...rs-cup-beyers/

[PaceAdvantage]

Originally Posted by classhandicapper

The point was never to ask how she stacked up against males. That's been the new tactic used by her detractors ever since Rachel lost twice.

The fact remains that Rachel beat Grade 1 older males as a 3yo filly on dirt. Zenyatta has yet to do the same despite being much older and more mature (and supposedly better).

So yes, the point is to ask how she stacks up against males (on dirt), since females are obviously not a problem for her. When females cease being competition (as they did for Rachel last year), the next step is obvious.

Unless you're Peppers Pride...not that there is anything wrong with that....

And if you're NOT going to switch to dirt permanently this year (which is something you would think they would do, considering they are on record saying Zenyatta is a better dirt horse + the BCC is on dirt this year), at least run against males in California. I mean, come on now...

[nobeyerspls]

Originally Posted by Fastracehorse@DRF

.........but I am adjusting the Beyer; and that is the key point 4 me: That the Beyer is an accurate tool that measures fairly the ability of a horse. It is a very objective # - it's up to the player to put a subjective spin on it.

fffastt

Hiya Fast

Two comments. The bsf's are "accurate" within 10% and they are subjective, not objective. Look at some of the recent posts wherein guys are debating a 107 versus a 112.
I found a nice play at Woodbine today involving an entrant who's bsf's don't stack up. Will be a nice price. That's the true value of the bsf's - they draw my wagering opponents toward false favorites and away from otherwise logical contenders.

[cj]

Originally Posted by nobeyerspls

Hiya Fast

Two comments. The bsf's are "accurate" within 10% and they are subjective, not objective. Look at some of the recent posts wherein guys are debating a 107 versus a 112.
I found a nice play at Woodbine today involving an entrant who's bsf's don't stack up. Will be a nice price. That's the true value of the bsf's - they draw my wagering opponents toward false favorites and away from otherwise logical contenders.

A 107 vs a 112 is 2.5 lengths at a mile...that decides most races.

We'd love to hear about the Woodbine horse before the race.

[46zilzal]

All of this is mute when you realize that a SINGLE race, means little in the evaluation of how a horse will run today.

[cj]

Originally Posted by 46zilzal

All of this is mute when you realize that a SINGLE race, means little in the evaluation of how a horse will run today.

Moot, not mute.

[Greyfox]

Originally Posted by 46zilzal

All of this is mute when you realize that a SINGLE race, means little in the evaluation of how a horse will run today.

Agreed 46zilzal. So who will win The Preakness today?
(My Pick involves the late James Joyce in a round about way. )

[Tom]

Originally Posted by cj

Moot, not mute.

But it would be better mute!

[Cratos]

Originally Posted by Fastracehorse@DRF

.........but I am adjusting the Beyer; and that is the key point 4 me: That the Beyer is an accurate tool that measures fairly the ability of a horse. It is a very objective # - it's up to the player to put a subjective spin on it.

fffastt

Beyers are not ACCURATE and definitely by definition are not OBJECTIVE. BSFs are based on pars which are an average or a standard and correctly should have a variance which is plus/minus; but they do not. This in itself debunks the accuracy of BSFs.

[Cratos]

How did this thread go from "Mechanical Beyers" to whether or not Zenyatta is one of the greatest mares/horses ever?

That question might need to be answered, but it will never be answered by her BSFs because the BSFs have never determined the "greatness" of any other racehorse.

[cj]

Originally Posted by Cratos

Beyers are not ACCURATE and definitely by definition are not OBJECTIVE. BSFs are based on pars which are an average or a standard and correctly should have a variance which is plus/minus; but they do not. This in itself debunks the accuracy of BSFs.

In a game where even the timers are often proven to be inaccurate and in fact the whole race is not timed (the run up), they are as accurate as anything else out there.

Of course the pars have a variance.