Can you quickly describe how you handicap?

[PaceAdvantage]

Originally Posted by Inner Dirt

I mentioned mine.

that's what I get for trying to be a smart-ass

[Tor Ekman]

I'd like to hear from Horsery on this topic.

[BELMONT 6-6-09]

The first thing i do is look for what the public bets heavily on
* Fast numbers
* Early speed
* A classy horse
* A horse with a good finish last race
* A high profile or percentage trainer/jockey

Then i determine through my handicapping process whether these potential underlays are good or vulnerable and then the real handicapping procedure begins

[classhandicapper]

I make most of my trip, race flow, bias, and other notes soon after the races are run. I also have an automated pace projection method. So as soon as I open the PPs I have a list of horses I think might be advantaged or disadvantaged by the setup today if it looks extreme and any horses that are better or worse than they look in the PPs based off their recent races. Those are the horses I am going to focus my attention on to see if I can structure any bets that make sense based on how those horses fit into the races they entered and the prices.

[wiretowire68]

1. Size of the Field
2. Racetype-Conditions
3. Is the race worth the bet
4. Past Performance Cycle and how the horse has run in the cycle
5. Record at the Distance
6. Odds Last Out
7. Speed Figures
8. Pace Figures.
9... Mainly guestimate if there will be a regression in the cycle or the horse is capable hitting the par of fig or exceeding
10. Post Position vs Speed to the Variant'
11. 5-6 Furlongs. E vs EP
12. Turf. who stalks, who leads, who is a dead closer vs the distance.

Finally a huge scan..........to see who I think is due to run, who is ready to run to the conditions. ...

[dnlgfnk]

1. Make horse-to-horse comparisons, beginning with projected favorite & second favorite, demanding evidence for the higher odds horse's superiority (my version of incorporating public odds).

2. Using an objective factor that the public weights heavily, view a horse's trip (effect of pace, position on straights/turns) as easy or difficult. An easy trip is discounted, or in the case of the higher odds horse, used as evidence of his inferiority, however slight. A tough trip for a favored horse verifies his superiority and potentially more favorable running style/trip today. A tough trip for the higher odds horse opens up his eligibility as an overlay.

3.The goal is to produce a subjective visual impression of objective data, without need of chart or replay. I don't consult them often. I can visualize an easy trip horse sitting on the rail behind two duelers, credited with a high figure and a seemingly impressive finish in terms of beaten lengths. And the countless other impressions of trips that the data suggests. Conversely, I can visualize a horse rushing up the rail after the start of a backstretch sprint, or the obvious wide turn trips yet decent stretch performances, producing dull figures and nondescript beaten lengths.

4. Over the years, this has produced strong, subjective explanatory power for race outcomes. The difficult aspect for me, has always been to be forgiving over this or that frequent loss. Many races are a roulette-on-horseback spin among the top 3 or 4 contenders.

[Dan H]

Pencil-and-paper handicapping process:

1. Run a checklist against all races to find Good and False ML Favorites.

2. Ignore races with Good Favorites (until scratches or weather known)

3. Handicap only races with False Favorites:
3a. Run a longshot checklist against remaining races/conditions (Pandy)
3b. Run a Mdn checklist against Mdn Races (i.e. pace, pos, BL's, J/T, etc.)
3c. Run a Clm checklist against Clm Races
3d. Run a ALW checklist against Alw Races
3e. Run a STK checklist against Stk Races

4. Note contenders from all races - good or false favorites (pencil in bets)

5. After scratches, sort contenders into A, B, C, D (ink in bets)

6a. Assess value with bets in mind.
6b. Draft bets around races with good favorites.
6c. Draft bets around races with false favorites.

Because I am pencil-and-paper handicapper (looking to save time), I trust my Good Favorite deductions and waste little effort on races with little value (unless a DD, Pk3, etc.)

I derived most of my checklists from lurking on Pace Advantage.

[Inner Dirt]

Please explain why a lot of people on this very board complain about inaccurate morning lines? Of course my clown act coworker playing the 1st and 3rd ML choices in an exacta box isn't a good example. I know plenty of people with some handicapping knowledge that most of the time cannot leave the morning line favorite out of their vertical and horizontal wagers. That being known if the person setting the morning lines is inept, that should be a good thing, as if the ML favorite finishes up the track that is a big boast to the horizontal wager payouts.

[thaskalos]

Originally Posted by Inner Dirt

Please explain why a lot of people on this very board complain about inaccurate morning lines? Of course my clown act coworker playing the 1st and 3rd ML choices in an exacta box isn't a good example. I know plenty of people with some handicapping knowledge that most of the time cannot leave the morning line favorite out of their vertical and horizontal wagers. That being known if the person setting the morning lines is inept, that should be a good thing, as if the ML favorite finishes up the track that is a big boast to the horizontal wager payouts.

A little knowledge is a dangerous thing.

[formula_2002]

Originally Posted by thaskalos

A little knowledge is a dangerous thing.

I handicap the handicappers using the wps and exacta totes. Having a ton of fun doing so.

[P.Rosa]

I don't make my own line so, I need an accurate ML.
Woodbine is not on my list of tracks, because its ML is made by monkeys rolling pooped dice on a Ouija board.

After the ML, I look at days off.
The amount of days off that I look for depend on the type of race that I'm handicapping.
I don't handicap or bet maiden races.

The rest is a secret.

[Inner Dirt]

Originally Posted by P.Rosa

I don't make my own line so, I need an accurate ML.
Woodbine is not on my list of tracks, because its ML is made by monkeys rolling pooped dice on a Ouija board.

After the ML, I look at days off.
The amount of days off that I look for depend on the type of race that I'm handicapping.
I don't handicap or bet maiden races.

The rest is a secret.

I would look to take advantage of that, and say thanks for the information
except *homie don't play artificial tracks.


*Credit Homie the Clown.

[Inner Dirt]

Originally Posted by P.Rosa

I don't make my own line so, I need an accurate ML.
Woodbine is not on my list of tracks, because its ML is made by monkeys rolling pooped dice on a Ouija board.

After the ML, I look at days off.
The amount of days off that I look for depend on the type of race that I'm handicapping.
I don't handicap or bet maiden races.

The rest is a secret.

Thanks for the replay, so I am assuming you are looking for horses that provide value, as in overlays and using the ML to estimate how the public will bet.

[Inner Dirt]

Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage

that's what I get for trying to be a smart-ass

Better than trying to be a dumbass.

[eldee wins]

I use Trackmaster flashnet sheets. For me, it’s all the information I need to zero in on my key contenders,these sheets are a valuable tool. 80% of my bets are pick fours. I can narrow down the race in three minutes. The sheets contain power ratings, average speed ratings for the distance,average class rating for the distance. they have pace running style for each horse, so you can easily see a race shape. They have jockey, trainer combo stats. I like the horizontal last three races, that include,days last raced, class ratings,speed ratings and finish position for those 3 races. And a number of other factors. Then I will look at Brisnet pace figures for those horses i narrowed down to see where the advantages are. i also look at track bias for those tracks and that’s about it. The only other thing, races with first time starters and some turf races, I may have to focus more on the brisnet sheets for that.