"Fed Up With the CAWs..."

[Robert Fischer]

Originally Posted by Dave Schwartz

How do you have selectivity when the whales bet AFTER your bets are in?

What are you selecting from?
The tote without their money and yours?

that's a good question Dave.

I certainly can't 'finesse' the whales and CAWs and syndicates.

They bet after us.

Everyone has a different style, but for this question;
fundamental stuff where a 'ballpark' estimate of the final tote, works fine

Talking about where the whole thing comes down to an insight which differs in opinion with a reasonable projection of the wagering.

a model or a 'thing' ... maybe you see a flawed favorite, or a dark horse longshot, or some significant race related model.

Whatever it is, you have to have a true understanding of it.

Not a hunch.


Not 'pareidolia' =

Twitter

just knowing the horses, and understanding what's going on, and a race comes up where something is mispriced.

Then a ballpark estimate, and sometimes just the general order of 'Favorite/co-favs/3rd-choice-or-so' etc... will suffice.

'THEY' are wrong or don't understand, and fortunately this is a rare opportunity where I happen to fully understand.

That is difficult and there are Saturdays where you see ZERO none nada mispriced horses. There are days when you see only one.

Everyone has different styles of play. No one method is the 'correct' way, and obviously this is a hard game with the odds and circumstances stacked against us.

__________________
Preparation. Discipline. Patience. Decisiveness.

[thaskalos]

I can't argue with those who see this game as a form of entertainment, and are primarily interested in the comaraderie or the majesty of going to the track. But as a profit-making endeavor, this game no longer fits the bill...IMO. The return for the time invested simply isn't there.

[Dave Schwartz]

Everyone has a different style, but for this question;
fundamental stuff where a 'ballpark' estimate of the final tote, works fine

If you believe a "ballpark estimate" works fine, then you're watching a different channel than I am.

I find the tote board to be absolutely worthless to bet into.

So much so that I have not used it since 2017 - after the whales began betting when the horses entered the gate. (They used to feed the money in beginning at about 5 minutes, with bets getting larger nearing post.)
_________
Almost 75% of the winners go down for odds and the other 25% stay the same or go up.

Using that logic...
Imagine that you are betting 2 horses in every race.

You decide to use Howard Sartin's approach - betting 60% on the low odds horse and 40% on the high odds horse.

Following the logic... 75% of the time, you will be going up on the wrong horse.

Therefore, reverse the betting strategy and bet 60% on the HIGHER ODDS horse.

Shocking how much that can improve one's results.

[Robert Fischer]

Originally Posted by Dave Schwartz

If you believe a "ballpark estimate" works fine, then you're watching a different channel than I am.

I find the tote board to be absolutely worthless to bet into.

So much so that I have not used it since 2017 - after the whales began betting when the horses entered the gate. (They used to feed the money in beginning at about 5 minutes, with bets getting larger nearing post.)
_________
Almost 75% of the winners go down for odds and the other 25% stay the same or go up.
...

:ThfmbUp: Thanks Dave. And some of that Sartin stuff was interesting but blew my mind a little bit.
Would love to read more about that.

♘ 🍏🍯👁️*🗨️🦉☠️🏇


My style is based on the rare occasions when there is a horse entered who I feel is significantly mispriced.

That's a price from the morning line basically.
m
but then; I look at the will-pay pools.

If the flawed horse isn't favored in these will-pay pools, it's no longer a bet.

If the darkened longshot is taking money in the will pay pools it's no longer a bet...

At the bell?? When they are 'wrong'; I hope they hammer that flawed horse.
I'm not really worried that they will suddenly contrast the will-pays with a reversal of what the will-pays and morning line suggest. That is rare.

I just wish they were wrong more often. Like I said it can be as rare as once or zero per day.
Sure you hope you have two or three races where they are wrong and the races are part of the same horizontal multi-race sequence, but that is even more rare.

I do not bet where I'm trying to 'finesse' my 'odds line' vs. whatever the tote is moving with... I do not have competence there.
Some of these races... the big stakes, or a big full field are enticing. Sometimes I may form an opinion with an odds line or even simply by handicapping opinion, - and try to bet a little to win a lot in one of those, but that's not my bread and butter.

I'm looking for rare cases where I fully understand the situation, and the money on a horse is going to be significantly mispriced (or 'wrong').
In such cases, it doesn't matter if an 8/5 shot gets hammered to 6/5, or drifts up to 2/1. -Yes it's true; Probably more than 50% of the time, even the cases of 'wrong' mispriced horses move slightly in a way that hurts the payout should I happen to cash. I can't let that stress me. If the horse is at least favored, or the dark horse is at least a mid-range price, I'll take it!

♘ 🍏🍯👁️*🗨️🦉☠️🏇

[Sheffwed]

Originally Posted by Robert Fischer

:ThfmbUp: Thanks Dave. And some of that Sartin stuff was interesting but blew my mind a little bit.
Would love to read more about that.

♘ 🍏🍯👁️*🗨️🦉☠️🏇


My style is based on the rare occasions when there is a horse entered who I feel is significantly mispriced.

That's a price from the morning line basically.
m
but then; I look at the will-pay pools.

If the flawed horse isn't favored in these will-pay pools, it's no longer a bet.

If the darkened longshot is taking money in the will pay pools it's no longer a bet...

At the bell?? When they are 'wrong'; I hope they hammer that flawed horse.
I'm not really worried that they will suddenly contrast the will-pays with a reversal of what the will-pays and morning line suggest. That is rare.

I just wish they were wrong more often. Like I said it can be as rare as once or zero per day.
Sure you hope you have two or three races where they are wrong and the races are part of the same horizontal multi-race sequence, but that is even more rare.

I do not bet where I'm trying to 'finesse' my 'odds line' vs. whatever the tote is moving with... I do not have competence there.
Some of these races... the big stakes, or a big full field are enticing. Sometimes I may form an opinion with an odds line or even simply by handicapping opinion, - and try to bet a little to win a lot in one of those, but that's not my bread and butter.

I'm looking for rare cases where I fully understand the situation, and the money on a horse is going to be significantly mispriced (or 'wrong').
In such cases, it doesn't matter if an 8/5 shot gets hammered to 6/5, or drifts up to 2/1. -Yes it's true; Probably more than 50% of the time, even the cases of 'wrong' mispriced horses move slightly in a way that hurts the payout should I happen to cash. I can't let that stress me. If the horse is at least favored, or the dark horse is at least a mid-range price, I'll take it!

♘ 🍏🍯👁️*🗨️🦉☠️🏇

What we have here is

1) Hedge Fund types who have found algorithmically that if you bet enough on overpriced horses at the last minute, you will profit

2) Similar Wall Street types who have long used High Frequency Trading also applying their skills here, figuring out how to time investments optimally

3) Add to that any further "inside information" they might gather, ethically or not, especially if they operate outside the US and their laws

What you have is a formula where a small number of investors profit, and they only do so if there is adequate "sucker liquidity" - kind of like those who listen to Jim Cramer on CNBC

It is a formula for a sport that got a boost during COVID, but is now in continuous decline

The only way forward really is to pick your spots carefully - or find something else to do with the rest of your life

[paulbenny]

I would like to confirm the exchanges here and data that I have been gathering through people or places like the Oregon Wagering site for ADWs. I want to be reasonable here.

12 Billion is wagered annually on thoroughbreds

well over half is on line, maybe 7 Billion

of those dollars bet on line, 1/2 is bet by whales (defined a little loosely here but not retail players, people who bet 100 -500 million are probably half of the total of whale wagering in those key corporation type groups)

the average retail player loses 30 percent with rebates give or take

the takeouts vary and are public if you have solid relationships with ADW providers or people in the business but lets say a mix rate of upward of 20 percent on all wagers


If this is way off, please weigh in.

If anyone is winning betting regularly without rebates, over a long period, that would be a person I want to meet. The whales are definitely losing 3.5 or slightly more than that and get great rebates compared to retail players. They are going directly to the tote sometimes and are counted in track handle but might be going through and ADW also so this area needs more information if anyone can clarify this.

Thanks.

[formula_2002]

I need to be thankful to the "Late Money Bettors" for my biggest win of the day (09-20-2023).
Pen race 2 which was rated as my segment 3 class.
the significant late money went this way:
#7, probability increased by 141%
#9, probability increased by 181 %
#10, probability increased by 106%

they all lost
my winner, #5 probability decreased by 18%

[paulbenny]

I received confirmation that the direct to tote wagering is all ADW. It could be for any track not just the host track who has an ADW but the deal struck between the betting group and the operator. If someone knows other than that let me know.

I just started looking into these details a few weeks ago for the first time.

[castaway01]

Originally Posted by formula_2002

I need to be thankful to the "Late Money Bettors" for my biggest win of the day (09-20-2023).
Pen race 2 which was rated as my segment 3 class.
the significant late money went this way:
#7, probability increased by 141%
#9, probability increased by 181 %
#10, probability increased by 106%

they all lost
my winner, #5 probability decreased by 18%

You're hilarious because you don't bet, so you don't have any "big wins". More to the point, a single race means absolutely nothing. You've made tens of thousands of posts about "statistics" and you don't even understand that much? Keep your garbage posts to your 10 other "selections" threads.

[formula_2002]

Originally Posted by castaway01

You're hilarious because you don't bet, so you don't have any "big wins". More to the point, a single race means absolutely nothing. You've made tens of thousands of posts about "statistics" and you don't even understand that much? Keep your garbage posts to your 10 other "selections" threads.

Good luck to you in all your endeavors as I am in mine

[formula_2002]

Originally Posted by paulbenny

I received confirmation that the direct to tote wagering is all ADW. It could be for any track not just the host track who has an ADW but the deal struck between the betting group and the operator. If someone knows other than that let me know.

I just started looking into these details a few weeks ago for the first time.

Please explain a bit further. Also, " betting group"? "operator"?
Thanks

[green80]

Seems like at some tracks they don't make as much of an impact as others. I play tracks that the late money doesn't seem to show up on the horses that I bet on.

[paulbenny]

From what I was told, anyone who wagers "directly to the tote" is considered to be wagering through an on-line ADW and clearly it is not considered on the on-track handle. I was trying to separate that handle from on-track. Further to the point:

I was told that the entities that have direct to the tote access could be wagering on other affiliated tracks in their direct to the tote via host circuit (lets say for sake of discussion Del Mar Thoroughbred Club). For example, they could be wagering on Los Alamitos Race Course.

The word entity is what I will use. I consider an entity to be one person or group of people who bet extremely large sums of money comprising the one third of overall handle on thoroughbred tracks. I am trying to table this out like a business case.

For example, if there are six big entities that comprise 100-500 million each then the average guessing is 300 million times six or approaching two billion and then there is well over another two billion sprinkled across all these other entities. No one has all of the information but I am trying to back into some real substantive numbers.

[castaway01]

Originally Posted by paulbenny

From what I was told, anyone who wagers "directly to the tote" is considered to be wagering through an on-line ADW and clearly it is not considered on the on-track handle. I was trying to separate that handle from on-track. Further to the point:

I was told that the entities that have direct to the tote access could be wagering on other affiliated tracks in their direct to the tote via host circuit (lets say for sake of discussion Del Mar Thoroughbred Club). For example, they could be wagering on Los Alamitos Race Course.

The word entity is what I will use. I consider an entity to be one person or group of people who bet extremely large sums of money comprising the one third of overall handle on thoroughbred tracks. I am trying to table this out like a business case.

For example, if there are six big entities that comprise 100-500 million each then the average guessing is 300 million times six or approaching two billion and then there is well over another two billion sprinkled across all these other entities. No one has all of the information but I am trying to back into some real substantive numbers.

There are articles in this thread and elsewhere that break down all of those numbers, at least as much as the people involved are going to reveal them.

[turfeyejoe]

Please tell us which tracks DON'T attract CAW play because I've yet to find one.