Odds Line

[Running Amok]

I'm new here and I just wanted to say hello and tell y'all a little about myself.

I'm in my sixties and have lived in the Detroit area all my life. I had a good friend that used to go to DRC in Livonia, and he got me interested in betting on horses. We used to go to DRC on Saturdays in time to bet on the first race (1:00 PM post).

Saturdays usually had 11 or 12 races on the card and most of the time we stayed for all of them. Then afterwards, we'd grab a bite to eat then we went off to Hazel Park to play the buggies.

I really enjoyed going to DRC but after it closed for good in 1998, I kind of lost interest in horse racing.

Fast forward to the present: It's now simple to open an ADW account and play just about any track in the country. So last year that's what I did. I opened an account with Twin Spires and have a renewed interest in horse racing.

I made some nice scores back in the day when we went to DRC, but things are different today somehow. The game seems much tougher. smaller fields, low payoffs, a lot of chalk.

So, the other day I decided to get out my old handicapping books and specifically wanted to re-read Money Secrets At The Race Track by Barry Meadow. I wanted to start making my own betting line and try to learn to bet only when there's perceived value and pass if it seems there's none.

I have several books on handicapping, and I thought why not look them up online and read the reviews. Some I have are not exactly popular titles. But one title I have turns out to be a real gem.

I was surprised to find that the book I have entitled "The Odds On Your Side" by Mark Cramer was held in such high regard. For some reason I barely read the Intro before. So, I started reading it and it really opened my mind. The book is a pleasure to read and I'm hoping it helps me in my endeavor.

The other thing that surprised me is how rare this book is and how much it goes for if you can find it. Mines in perfect condition and so I'm treating it gently as I turn the pages.

I've also been messing around with using Excel to create an odds line and it works quite well. But like anything there are times when it’s not very accurate and doesn't work well at all with maiden races. So, it's kind of a situation where I need to only use it in certain types of races. Like a few weeks ago I hit some nice exactas at Ellis Park and had a 38-1 shot winner that was 6-1 on my line.

So, I just wanted to say hello to everyone and if anyone is interested in having a conversation about making an odds line and learning more about value betting, I'd be happy to hear from you.

Thanks, and good luck to everyone!

[Dave Schwartz]

Welcome.

Please tell us more about what you felt was so impactful in those books.

[romankoz]

When I price my A selection I try to imagine how comfortable I would be offering a certain price if I were a bookmaker.
I also think "is this horse 50/50 to place" (In Australia that's 1st 2nd or 3rd) which makes it 4/1 for the win. If I think it should place but only just it is 7/2. That could be my 2nd pick or top pick in a slightly harder race at those odds. If I think it is just going to miss 3rd it is 9/2.
I also look at others selections on the day priced around the 7/2 to 9/2 price range and compare them against one another. Quite often I will realise I am being too conservative and I ease my price or prices.
It's all a juggling act but it helps me get that gut feel/intuition I need.

Years ago we had each way bookmakers so 4/1 the win got you 1/1 for the place thus a quarter of the win odds. I thought I had better mention that for those who did not know.

[Partsnut]

Mark Cramer was in my opinion, was the consumate expert on "Value".
I have his very rare book on "Value Handicapping" as well as both Barry Meadows books (one autographed copy)3 books in all which I would be willing to sell as a package for the right price.

I have no more need for these books. I am an EquinEdge user and believe that it's odds line and other metrics are the best I've seen to date.
From what I've been told by others, JCapper also has a very formidable odds line which some may want to consider.

With tools like these, why would I even bother wasting the time and effort formulating my own line?
Time is money.




partsnut@yahoo.com

[Running Amok]

Originally Posted by Dave Schwartz

Welcome.

Please tell us more about what you felt was so impactful in those books.

Hello Dave and thank you for the welcome.

I wanted to re-read Money Secrets by Barry Meadow to reacquaint myself with the math and his concepts. Like I said I've been working on creating an odds line in Excel and so I wanted to dig out my old books to make sure the formulas I was writing were correct.

It's quite simple math. But in his book, Barry explains the difference between having an edge and an overlay. I was using a small perceived edge as an overlay which resulted in several horses showing as overlays. Hence, I had to choose which horses I liked better as it wasn't unfeasible to bet them all.

Now that I've made some adjustments, I get less overlays but there are still times when more than one horse in a race appears to be an overlay. Barry's book states there's nothing wrong with betting more than one horse to win if you deduct the guaranteed losing bet and the odds on each horse are high enough to still qualify as an overlay.

I used to never consider betting on two horses to win in a race but that's how I hit that 38-1 shot. I had two horses in the race that were going off way above what my odds line had them at. At first, I thought my line must be out of whack and wrong. But the race was exactly the type of race my line had performed well on before. So, I held my nose and bet $20 on each of them to win and was glad I did!

Barry's book mentions The Odds On Your Side, by Mark Cramer. That's probably the reason I bought it, decades ago. I just never got into it back then and just started reading it. I'm only20 or so pages in but it’s really an interesting read. The entire book is dedicated to making an odds line without the aid of a computer. So, it’s quite a different approach to my attempt at creating an odds line in Excel.

I’m an open-minded person so I welcome his thoughts and knowledge. I know that a mechanical approach is never going to be able to work for all races and I don’t expect my Excel spreadsheet to be applicable in all situations. But I did put some time and effort into it, and I think it has it’s place in certain types of races.

So, perhaps reading Cramer’s book will reveal some modifications that I could incorporate into my spreadsheet. Or just maybe I will have an entirely new way of making an odds line and abandon my Excel program all together.

This is a great forum and I've been a lurker for a while. I haven't seen a lot of discussion here regarding making an odds line, so I thought I'd introduce myself and see if anyone here is interested in sharing their thoughts on the subject.

[Running Amok]

Originally Posted by Partsnut

I am an EquinEdge user and believe that it's odds line and other metrics are the best I've seen to date.
From what I've been told by others, JCapper also has a very formidable odds line which some may want to consider.

With tools like these, why would I even bother wasting the time and effort formulating my own line?
Time is money.

Nothing wrong with using other tools but one thing I would say is that those tools you mentioned are not the result of your opinion. Making your own odds line represents what YOU think their fair odds should be.

Personally, I don't want to trust some algorithm designed by someone else to represent my opinion. Doing it the easy way is not always the best way and I know there's a learning curve to creating my own line. It's going to take some time and effort. But once I learn the skill and feel confident, I can't imagine it would take me more than 5 minutes or so to handicap and rate the horses in a race that I'm interested in.

To me that's priceless because if using tools publicly available were the way to profits everyone would be using them which would in-turn destroy their value.

[Dave Schwartz]

Nothing wrong with using other tools but one thing I would say is that those tools you mentioned are not the result of your opinion. Making your own odds line represents what YOU think their fair odds should be.

Melding your opinion with a very consistent 2nd opinion - such as an algorithm - can be very powerful.

A few years ago I did a podcast calling this Hybrid Handicapping.

[Running Amok]

Dave, I listened to your podcast. Thanks for the link.

The part that says "when do I listen to the 3rd party stuff and when do I listen to myself" gave me pause. That question poses another question; which 3rd party should one listen to?

There are a slew of services offering picks and they don't all agree. So, who's right? Who's the man? Who's the handicapping guru one should listen to this week?

We all have access to PPs by DRF, Brisnet and Equibase, among others. They all have their own version of speed ratings and/or pace ratings, and some have their "proprietary" figs. But to my knowledge no PP program has been shown to have superior ratings.

There are plenty of software programs – some are drastically more expensive than others. But as anyone who's been around this game long enough knows, high cost does not necessarily equate to superior results.

So, which speed ratings should I go with? Who’s got the gold?
Which software program should I rely on for that very consistent 2nd opinion? Yours?

I understand some folks don’t want to put in the time and effort to attempt to get better. And I’m sure there are software programs that pick plenty of winners. Input data – output winners. However, as we all know any publicly offered system or program that makes money would eventually become unprofitable. It’s just the nature of the pari-mutual system.

I firmly believe there’s more than one way to be successful. What works for someone may not work for someone else. Maybe they can’t stay with it. Maybe it’s not their betting style. I believe the trick is to find what works for you that you have confidence in. If it’s a hybrid method where you combine your opinion with a 2nd opinion - such as an algorithm, then fantastic. Good your you.

All that said, I just can’t rely on anyone else’s picks. That doesn’t work for me. I can’t have confidence in melding my opinion with an algorithm or some expert’s opinion.

I’m not saying one should not work smarter and obtain information that would save them time. Some services that can provide reliably good data is worth paying for. But the final decision to bet on a race and why I’m betting on a particular horse or horses – that has to be my opinion only.

Don’t be afraid to think for yourself. Don’t be afraid to work at getting better. Don’t be afraid to trust your opinion. You may not always be right, and that’s okay. But betting on someone else’s opinion and being wrong, that’s not okay. Take responsibility for the bets you make. That’s the only way to learn and get better, IMHO.

"Courage begets strength, fear begets weakness. And so courage begets success, fear begets failure."
By Rick Baker

[Dave Schwartz]

Long reply.
Made a lot of sense.


Software is a tool.
It is not a black box that says, "Bet this horse."

The purpose of horse handicapping software is to do one or all of several things better than the user can do without the software.

Data Collection and Analysis
Predictive Modelling
Streamlines the Process
Bet Management
Betting Strategy
Ticket Development
Maintaining History/Notes

The result with the software should be an improvement upon what the user is doing without the software.

There are players who lose massively and others who lose only marginally. My opinion is that "marginally" is preferable to "massively."

But this was the biggest, most important question you asked:

There are a slew of services offering picks and they don't all agree. So, who's right? Who's the man? Who's the handicapping guru one should listen to this week?

The answer is the same as the one you face right now:
YOU figure it out.


At the end of the day, a selector's picks are just another factor like speed rating in the last race or Quirin ES Points.

They still have to be integrated into YOUR FINAL ANSWER.

The difference between a human selector's picks and the output of a computer algorithm is that the human's output may vary considerably, while the computer output doesn't change.

The long-term winning players that I know would generally agree that consistency of data is essential to winning.

Ironically, the artful player has a problem with that because, based upon state of mind, bankroll, recent results, etc., it can be difficult to achieve that consistency.

[edit]

We all have access to PPs by DRF, Brisnet and Equibase, among others. They all have their own version of speed ratings and/or pace ratings, and some have their "proprietary" figs. But to my knowledge no PP program has been shown to have superior ratings.

And to my knowledge and experience (and data) that would be very incorrect.

[thaskalos]

I have been in this game for a long time...and have also been quite active on this board for a long time. During all those years, I have seen many discussions where people argue about which speed and pace figures are the "most accurate"...and I have also seen debates where the merits and shortcomings of certain commercially available handicapping software were being discussed. But, try as I might...I can't remember a conclusion having been reached whereby a certain set of speed/pace figures, or a certain handicapping software, has proven itself to be conclusively better than the rest. Have I missed something?

[ranchwest]

Last year I learned from Dave Schwartz what my problem was. My PROCESS was inadequate. I would begin in one handicapping area one day and then another the next day. A process needs to be consistent. That's why it is important to have software that you can work with. The software will always make the same information available and in the same format. If you use that information in a consistent way, you can (and likely will) learn to improve your abilities. In large part, it is a matter of learning to consistently use the information you have.

[Dave Schwartz]

Originally Posted by thaskalos

I have been in this game for a long time...and have also been quite active on this board for a long time. During all those years, I have seen many discussions where people argue about which speed and pace figures are the "most accurate"...and I have also seen debates where the merits and shortcomings of certain commercially available handicapping software were being discussed. But, try as I might...I can't remember a conclusion having been reached whereby a certain set of speed/pace figures, or a certain handicapping software, has proven itself to be conclusively better than the rest. Have I missed something?

Yes.
The success of individual players.

As an example, I believe PA did either 2 or 3 public 500-race tests using HSH where he was flat bet profitable.

But this proves nothing except that PA figured out how to leverage the tool.

Just like "Rook" back in the early 2000s announcing his consecutive winning years with HSH. As I recall, his biggest year was over $400,000.

Proves that the user figured out the puzzle.

Just like you, Thask - without HSH, of course.
You were (and possibly still are) a winning player.

That proves that the game can be beaten, but if you are averaged in with all the other players the outcome looks bleak.
_______
My estimate is that 4 people out of 1000 win consistently.

20% of my users have historically been winning players.

That's a 50x improvement, and still proves nothing.
_______
THE PLAYER matters more than the software or the data.

[ranchwest]

Originally Posted by thaskalos

I have been in this game for a long time...and have also been quite active on this board for a long time. During all those years, I have seen many discussions where people argue about which speed and pace figures are the "most accurate"...and I have also seen debates where the merits and shortcomings of certain commercially available handicapping software were being discussed. But, try as I might...I can't remember a conclusion having been reached whereby a certain set of speed/pace figures, or a certain handicapping software, has proven itself to be conclusively better than the rest. Have I missed something?

You haven't missed a thing. I get a lot of feedback on what users want from my software. Everyone is different. So, what they perceive is based on their own preferences. Some people like concise, some consider more information to be more robust. Some like pace handicapping, some don't. People have various levels of visual preferences. Some people are always searching for what they haven't found and are always wanting something new while some are completely immersed in what they have experience with from the past and are not looking for much new. Some want a magic number while others are heavy into research. Some want to play only a few races, some want to play nearly every race.

So, I suspect you will never find much agreement on the best numbers or the best software. I just keep a never ending list of requests and I get them done as quickly as I can.

[Dave Schwartz]

Great post, Ranch.


Sums it up nicely.

[thaskalos]

Originally Posted by Dave Schwartz

Yes.
The success of individual players.

As an example, I believe PA did either 2 or 3 public 500-race tests using HSH where he was flat bet profitable.

But this proves nothing except that PA figured out how to leverage the tool.

Just like "Rook" back in the early 2000s announcing his consecutive winning years with HSH. As I recall, his biggest year was over $400,000.

Proves that the user figured out the puzzle.

Just like you, Thask - without HSH, of course.
You were (and possibly still are) a winning player.

That proves that the game can be beaten, but if you are averaged in with all the other players the outcome looks bleak.
_______
My estimate is that 4 people out of 1000 win consistently.

20% of my users have historically been winning players.

That's a 50x improvement, and still proves nothing.
_______
THE PLAYER matters more than the software or the data.

I don't think anyone really "figures out the puzzle" of this game...I honestly feel that we all get "fooled by randomness". The winners aren't as sharp as they think they are...nor are the losers as dumb as they may seem. And in the end, if given enough time, we will all end up as losers, IMO. It doesn't matter what we may have done in the past..this game is dynamic, not static...and things continually change. The fact that I have been a winning player up until now means little, because it's the FUTURE that's of utmost importance...and I don't like what I see when I look into my "crystal ball".

I used to think that I had a sizable edge in this game...and there were even times when I arrogantly challenged several of the members here to handicapping contests when arguments arose between them and me. But as I watch and study this game on a daily basis, I see that my "edge" isn't nearly as significant as I once thought, and it seems to be continually diminishing...because the "competition" seems to be improving more rapidly than I can, and I don't see how I can keep pace. Just when I foolishly thought that I had attained a level of "expertise" that I felt could carry me triumphantly into the future...I can now feel the ground crumbling underneath my feet.