Paddock hosts fan duel /nyra pre race--judgements

[big frank]

I don't know how to say it----but i actually like it when they talk up a horse i am totally against or when they don't like a horse i am on....today was a great example--in the 4th at Gulf i totally threw out the fave - Lieutenant Sam , mainly because everything seemed like he didn't want any part of a route race--late pace figs-pedigree -- running style- it all seemed like a bet against , yet the fanduel reporter said how the horse was built for the distance.. body was lanky and should be able to run all day.... and the horse didn't run past 6f and tired badly , on top of that the firster i bet was never mentioned....i bet him because Tyler G was up and pedigree was pretty good , he got up late at 10-1 . this happens every day . i know we all make mistakes , and believe me i make many , but i see no value in having someone tell the public that a 4/5 shot '' is walking around like he is ready to explode or she is walking around like she owns the place "" Do people actually bet their money on horses because of what they heard from a paddock reporter ??? just curious

[dnlgfnk]

Originally Posted by big frank

I don't know how to say it----but i actually like it when they talk up a horse i am totally against or when they don't like a horse i am on....today was a great example--in the 4th at Gulf i totally threw out the fave - Lieutenant Sam , mainly because everything seemed like he didn't want any part of a route race--late pace figs-pedigree -- running style- it all seemed like a bet against , yet the fanduel reporter said how the horse was built for the distance.. body was lanky and should be able to run all day.... and the horse didn't run past 6f and tired badly , on top of that the firster i bet was never mentioned....i bet him because Tyler G was up and pedigree was pretty good , he got up late at 10-1 . this happens every day . i know we all make mistakes , and believe me i make many , but i see no value in having someone tell the public that a 4/5 shot '' is walking around like he is ready to explode or she is walking around like she owns the place "" Do people actually bet their money on horses because of what they heard from a paddock reporter ??? just curious

You may be told that even whale teams give a number to physical appearance, but that doesn't remove the subjective nature of the observations. Crunching data from subjective inputs produces subjective output. Two people don't perceive subjective, qualitative experiences (appearance, degree of nervousness, color, smell, pain, etc.) exactly the same.

This has led "qualia" (subjective experiences) to be controversial in the scientific world because it cannot be measured, with many scientists denying its existence in the objective external world- merely a projection of the subjective mind.

[jay68802]

I have never bet a horse on looks, but will cancel a bet on looks.

[ranchwest]

Originally Posted by jay68802

I have never bet a horse on looks, but will cancel a bet on looks.

The biggest dime super I ever hit was on a maiden race where there were 2 2TS and the rest were 1TS. It was solely on physicality. I did have to put in a second ticket after the post parade based on the appearance of the 17/1 winner.

[Michael]

Originally Posted by big frank

"" Do people actually bet their money on horses because of what they heard from a paddock reporter ??? just curious

I'm no fool... that said, I have bet more on a horse that I liked bc Maggie gave the ok in her paddock review. Have also called off bets bc of her stating the horse looks washed out. I value her opinion. Fairly highly if we're being honest.

She's earned my respect... I didn't just give it to her. There's countless talking heads around the country that I just leave on mute.

[big frank]

I tip my hat to Maggie .. i thought the speed would quit so i dutched 2 closers -the 6 and 8 .... she was high on the 8 First Deputy and he got up late at 14-1 ..... i have been critical of the paddock judgements---but she was right on in that race

[Nitro]

Originally Posted by big frank

I don't know how to say it----but i actually like it when they talk up a horse i am totally against or when they don't like a horse i am on....today was a great example--in the 4th at Gulf i totally threw out the fave - Lieutenant Sam , mainly because everything seemed like he didn't want any part of a route race--late pace figs-pedigree -- running style- it all seemed like a bet against , yet the fanduel reporter said how the horse was built for the distance.. body was lanky and should be able to run all day.... and the horse didn't run past 6f and tired badly ,
Do people actually bet their money on horses because of what they heard from a paddock reporter ??? just curious

I believe many of us have experienced the things that you’ve described in one way or another. However, in the case you mentioned the Fanduel reporter was not explaining anything related to the actual current physicality of the horse. My opinion is that anyone who listens to paddock reporters in general should first be aware of their qualifications for providing that type of information. Because many of us play in remote locations away from the track the information itself as related to current physicality can at times be very relevant when presented properly. Unfortunately, that’s not the norm. In fact, I’ve found that its lacking in many respects when being delivered from track reporters all over the country. But I have to admit, I've been spoiled by a superior product.

Originally Posted by dnlgfnk

You may be told that even whale teams give a number to physical appearance, but that doesn't remove the subjective nature of the observations. Crunching data from subjective inputs produces subjective output. Two people don't perceive subjective, qualitative experiences (appearance, degree of nervousness, color, smell, pain, etc.) exactly the same.

This explanation is very well put even when considering the supposedly better paddock reporting that’s available locally. As a result, it’s also one of the major reasons why I prefer to play the racing that’s available in Hong Kong. If anyone is interested in seeing how this type of reporting should be done in a professional manner just watch some of the live racing from HK. https://www.thoroughbrednews.com.au/...=livestreaming

There’s a woman named Jenny who provides this information for each horse in the race while they're parading in the walking ring. It doesn’t matter if there’s 12 or 14 entries. They all receive commentary and it’s related to their O.A. current physicality. But even more than that (and as related to potential questions raised about subjective observations) she not only provides the current physicality, but also compares that information with previous appearances since she maintains an ongoing journal of each animal. This is all part of their typical half hour routine between race info format which never varies. Now when you consider that you’re playing in earnest halfway around the world this type of Up To Date information can be invaluable. BTW aside from just the O.A. horse’s appearance and composure, things like weight changes, gait mannerisms, and even the number of handlers involved are also part of the discussion.
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[ScottJ]

Originally Posted by Nitro

There’s a woman named Jenny who provides this information for each horse in the race while they're parading in the walking ring. It doesn’t matter if there’s 12 or 14 entries. They all receive commentary and it’s related to their O.A. current physicality. But even more than that (and as related to potential questions raised about subjective observations) she not only provides the current physicality, but also compares that information with previous appearances since she maintains an ongoing journal of each animal. This is all part of their typical half hour routine between race info format which never varies.

Jenny Chapman (@jftpaddock) walks the ring with each horse as she provides the commentary. Given that Hong Kong racing is composed of mature geldings under handicap weights, Jenny's most important observations involve horses that washout in the hot and very humid Hong Kong weather. Jenny also does an excellent job analyzing the prerace stride of these older geldings. If you watch the HKJC live stream as opposed to the snapshots over TVG, you will see a full thirty minutes of analysis on each an every race.

My personal take is that the best paddock analyst in the game bar-none is Maggie Wolfendale (and I know I am not breaking new ground here). While her observations as to whether 2yo/3yo maidens are built to sprint or route are useful, her observations on prerace horse behaviors are invaluable. If she identifies kidney sweat or a skin condition on a horse you were considering for a big bet, time to rethink your wager size. Rather than putting me "on" horses, Maggie helps conserve the bankroll in those betting situations.

Her thoughts just flow which is a sign that you are watching a true expert in her craft. (And the fact that she knows so many horses by their barn names is a pretty good sign that she is in the stalls with many of these horses.)

[biggestal99]

considering the exacta paid an amazing 65-1 with a 9-1 beating a 5-2 second choice. the whales took a bath on this one.

Allan

[steveb]

Originally Posted by Nitro

I believe many of us have experienced the things that you’ve described in one way or another. However, in the case you mentioned the Fanduel reporter was not explaining anything related to the actual current physicality of the horse. My opinion is that anyone who listens to paddock reporters in general should first be aware of their qualifications for providing that type of information. Because many of us play in remote locations away from the track the information itself as related to current physicality can at times be very relevant when presented properly. Unfortunately, that’s not the norm. In fact, I’ve found that its lacking in many respects when being delivered from track reporters all over the country. But I have to admit, I've been spoiled by a superior product.
This explanation is very well put even when considering the supposedly better paddock reporting that’s available locally. As a result, it’s also one of the major reasons why I prefer to play the racing that’s available in Hong Kong. If anyone is interested in seeing how this type of reporting should be done in a professional manner just watch some of the live racing from HK. https://www.thoroughbrednews.com.au/...=livestreaming

There’s a woman named Jenny who provides this information for each horse in the race while they're parading in the walking ring. It doesn’t matter if there’s 12 or 14 entries. They all receive commentary and it’s related to their O.A. current physicality. But even more than that (and as related to potential questions raised about subjective observations) she not only provides the current physicality, but also compares that information with previous appearances since she maintains an ongoing journal of each animal. This is all part of their typical half hour routine between race info format which never varies. Now when you consider that you’re playing in earnest halfway around the world this type of Up To Date information can be invaluable. BTW aside from just the O.A. horse’s appearance and composure, things like weight changes, gait mannerisms, and even the number of handlers involved are also part of the discussion.
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Jenny Chapman's father was a very good trainer in Melbourne Australia way back when.
Won a few G1's from memory.
She would have grown up amongst the horses..

[BarchCapper]

Originally Posted by steveb

Jenny Chapman's father was a very good trainer in Melbourne Australia way back when.
Won a few G1's from memory.
She would have grown up amongst the horses..

Jenny Chapman bio blurb from HKJC website:

Jenny Chapman, twice champion Lady Jockey in Victoria, has a wealth of experience in racing broadcasts. She has worked for Channel 7 and Network 10 for well over a decade as a paddock and form analyst, including the live international telecast of the Melbourne Cup. Jenny began working on Hong Kong racing for Cable TV in 1995. Jenny is well respected in her role as Paddock Analyst on the "Trackside" programme, a position she assumed in 2007.

[rastajenk]

Now do Libby Hopwood

[BarchCapper]

Originally Posted by rastajenk

Now do Libby Hopwood

The Google images accompanying my search of that former jockey prompted by your comment were definitely somewhat different than Jenny Chapman's!

[classhandicapper]

I suspect there is a LOT of value pre race notes, but it's hard to implement because you have to develop the knowledge to take informed notes and then do it for every horse every day. Then you still learn have to learn how to use it all properly. In most races there's probably not anything significant enough to provide a positive expectation.

[Tom]

Ihave three people doing all that work for me.

Richie, Ocasia, and Maggie.