Odds changes during races WHAT A JOKE

[PaceAdvantage]

Originally Posted by green80

Looks like they are right a lot.

Yeah, because they're good.

[Pensacola Pete]

Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage

Yeah, because they're good.

They have crystal balls.

It happens race after race, day after day, and they're greedy about it. Somebody somewhere has a "Bet at the quarter pole pole" privilege. In the two races just run, I watched the winner at Evangeline drop from 5.9-1 to 3.2-1 at the eighth pole. I then watched the winner at Charles Town drop from 3.6-1 to 2.0-1 about halfway around the far turn (about 3/16ths out). Both were poised to make big moves at the time. But I don't ever see the logical horses, the horses who look strong at the quarter pole and then fold up their tent, or the nags that surprise everybody by passing six horses in the last eighth of a mile get that late dough.

When they fix the cheating, I'll start playing North American pools again. Until then, I'll stay with the betting exchanges, where I know what price I'm getting.

[green80]

Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage

Yeah, because they're good.

I think they are a little more than good. If not past posting maybe somebody's hacking into the system somewhere.

[PaceAdvantage]

Human beings are interesting creatures. That's one thing I've learned from being here 19 years.

I am profoundly shocked there are so many people in this thread who believe that the racing industry is allowing a small group to blatantly past-post SIGNIFICANT wagers at races and tracks all around the country every single day. Surely they see this as well as you do. The odds drops after the bell. The odds drops on winners.

And yet, nobody investigates? Not one person in the media is jonesing to blow the lid of what would surely be a big story even at non-racing news outlets? Not one racetrack or tote executive has ever looked into it? Or if they have, and have found evidence of what many of you claim, they just don't do anything about it?

Really?

[Track Phantom]

Here is the problem I have with the "computer batch betting" accounting for the odds changing: If this was true, common sense would say that we would see A LOT more (in the neighborhood of 50% or more) horses winning at significantly increased odds from the time the gates opened. If these batch bettors are dropping anchor on one horse (because they're so good), then most other runners should move drift up significantly. Unless they are hitting in the 90% range (and even the "why is it so hard to believe" group can't think that is true), then we should actually love this money in the pool because the 50% of the time they are wrong, we'd get overpaid.

See all of this just defies common sense. You'd have to believe these algorithms MIT'ers are so good that that they can identify the "winner" nearly all the time. However, the purpose of these outfits isn't to find the winner but find the betting inefficiencies (i.e. overlays). They, over time, will show profit (combined with rebate) by betting horses who are underplayed by the public. This practice should have almost no correlation to win percentage. Win percentage should remain in the 25% to 35% range.

I can buy algorithms that show inefficiencies in betting. Seeing a horse with characteristics that indicate he should be at 3-1 on the board and is sitting at 5-1 on the board, thus constituting a bet. I do not believe (not for a single solitary second) that these outfits have "handicapping software" or whatever you want to call it, that puts them on winners at a significantly higher rate than the public. That, my friends, is kool-aid drinking at its finest.

[PaceAdvantage]

Who says they are dropping anchor on just one horse?

Frankly, I haven't seen anything from the "past posting" clan except isolated races cherry picked.

Gulfstream is said to have the biggest proportion of CRW money in their pools...which is the main reason for their handle increase in recent times.

It should be quite easy to chart their races for a few days and prove that these extreme odds moves win 90% of the time.

And what constitutes an extreme odds move? I saw somebody post some supposed examples today, and the odds moves they highlighted didn't look all that extreme to me.

But even if what you write above is 100% true and factual, it would serve even further to bolster MY response above.

You think ALL of that is happening and nobody has noticed? And if they have, they haven't done a thing about it?

They want another scandal? They want the Feds involved? And for many of them in the INDUSTRY...they want to go to JAIL for doing nothing about it, or worse, colluding with the past-posters to allow it to continue unabated and in everyone's faces every single day?

[jay68802]

Originally Posted by Track Phantom

Here is the problem I have with the "computer batch betting" accounting for the odds changing: If this was true, common sense would say that we would see A LOT more (in the neighborhood of 50% or more) horses winning at significantly increased odds from the time the gates opened.

The win pool is not the only pool they are in, the are in the exacta and tri pools also. They are basing their wagers on the win pool, looking at all the horses for overlays. The reason you are not seeing a lot of odds movement on all the horses is that the public gets it right a lot of the times. So the horse might get a large amount bet on it but the odds do not change because the odds are already where they should be. It is when the public is drastically wrong and usually it is on only one horse in a race, is when you see the odds dip on the overlay and the odds rise on the favorites.

Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage

Who says they are dropping anchor on just one horse?



It should be quite easy to chart their races for a few days and prove that these extreme odds moves win 90% of the time.

I charted GP for a while, not long but enough to get a understanding. Depends on field size but they are usually on two horses that are winning around the 70% range. What do the top two horses in a 6 horse field win at. I think it is around 63%, but I might be wrong on that.

[TonyK@HSH]

One of the tracks I play regularly is Penn National. Late odds swings are commonplace at Penn as nearly 50% of the win pool posts while the race is running. I've found that in most races, these late changes are predictable.

After each race, take a moment to review DD and P3 will pays for the upcoming race. Final odds for the upcoming race most often mirror the will pays, especially with low priced favs. If you see a horse sitting a 5-2 at post time and the P3 and DD will pays project odds of let's say 1-1, the odds on this horse will very often float down to the 1-1 range.
Likewise horses not bet in the will pays will usually float upward when late money arrives.

I do not believe past posting is occurring.

Tony

[Track Phantom]

Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage

Who says they are dropping anchor on just one horse?

Frankly, I haven't seen anything from the "past posting" clan except isolated races cherry picked.

Gulfstream is said to have the biggest proportion of CRW money in their pools...which is the main reason for their handle increase in recent times.

It should be quite easy to chart their races for a few days and prove that these extreme odds moves win 90% of the time.

And what constitutes an extreme odds move? I saw somebody post some supposed examples today, and the odds moves they highlighted didn't look all that extreme to me.

But even if what you write above is 100% true and factual, it would serve even further to bolster MY response above.

You think ALL of that is happening and nobody has noticed? And if they have, they haven't done a thing about it?

They want another scandal? They want the Feds involved? And for many of them in the INDUSTRY...they want to go to JAIL for doing nothing about it, or worse, colluding with the past-posters to allow it to continue unabated and in everyone's faces every single day?

Stop clumping me in with the past posting crowd. I'll say this again, as it relates to odds dropping during the running of the race, I do NOT believe that it is people betting during the race. It can't be. By the time anyone see's an advantage during the race (speedball stumbling from the gate), if they bet it immediately (or canceled immediately), it wouldn't show up in the pools, and then on the board, until very late in the race. Am I saying past posting does not occur? No. I wouldn't claim to know and my instinct says that their Commodore 54 security system probably isn't good enough to keep out everyone. I don't know if it's happening but the signs are there.

I've said, many times, that I believe the betting is inside betting by connections based on knowing more about that horse than the public does. If you want assign it illegal stuff or not, I don't care. I know it isn't Wally sitting at the bar with a program and a pencil and noticing, at the last minute, that a horse has blinkers today and runs up to dump a mortgage.

I have ZERO doubt. ZERO. That Runaway Ghost was inside information and probably laced with something that turned him into a Maserati. It was too convenient that he was bet late, then HAMMERED late down to favoritism, into a race where you had Asmussen, Pletcher, Romans and every other name. Then the rider takes him (purposely) 6 wide and he closes and wins despite it by daylight. That combined with the betting was so obvious that it makes my eyes water.

[PaceAdvantage]

Originally Posted by Track Phantom

I've said, many times, that I believe the betting is inside betting by connections based on knowing more about that horse than the public does. If you want assign it illegal stuff or not, I don't care. I know it isn't Wally sitting at the bar with a program and a pencil and noticing, at the last minute, that a horse has blinkers today and runs up to dump a mortgage.

I have ZERO doubt. ZERO. That Runaway Ghost was inside information and probably laced with something that turned him into a Maserati. It was too convenient that he was bet late, then HAMMERED late down to favoritism, into a race where you had Asmussen, Pletcher, Romans and every other name. Then the rider takes him (purposely) 6 wide and he closes and wins despite it by daylight. That combined with the betting was so obvious that it makes my eyes water.

What I see is happening far too often and on far too many races every day to be inside betting by connections. It has to be, at least the vast majority, these CRW teams.

As for Runaway Ghost, I've seen some incredible odds drops at Sunland, so it wouldn't surprise me in the least that some CRW team was behind that one as well. Like I said in another thread, Runaway Ghost wasn't some impossible to find horse based on PPs alone. Well, in my opinion anyway.

And sorry for clumping you in...my bad.

[Poindexter]

Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage

Human beings are interesting creatures. That's one thing I've learned from being here 19 years.

I am profoundly shocked there are so many people in this thread who believe that the racing industry is allowing a small group to blatantly past-post SIGNIFICANT wagers at races and tracks all around the country every single day. Surely they see this as well as you do. The odds drops after the bell. The odds drops on winners.

And yet, nobody investigates? Not one person in the media is jonesing to blow the lid of what would surely be a big story even at non-racing news outlets? Not one racetrack or tote executive has ever looked into it? Or if they have, and have found evidence of what many of you claim, they just don't do anything about it?

Really?

PA, you have read posts by Todd and AE. I am sure most of the people that can actually order an investigation, are in the same boat. They believe that past posting is not possible, and they believe that the accuracy of the late money is a reflection of the talents of the Whales and nothing else. If that is your belief why would you wast the time and spend the money to investigate something you are 100% sure is not happening. In fact they were actually reading these threads they would likely be laughing out loud about how stupid they think some us are. Couple that with the fact that this type of cheating doesn't affect racing's bottom line one dollar and I really do not see a lot of motivation for anyone in the racing industry to go out of their way to really investigate if this type of cheating is going on. You can argue that any kind of cheating will cause a financial strain to their core customer base, but so do rebates, crw and whales in general and racing certainly has no problem with them.

So for this reason I am not persuaded at all by your argument. However, as I think about it, the argument I would make for no past posting is that there are reportedly 25 or more groups out there betting huge amounts of money and using rebates to profit. If a couple of groups were past posting and the rest weren't, it seems to me over time that the groups that were past posting would swallow up all the profits and the other groups would have a hard time surviving even with their skill set and rebates. For this reason I will side with past posting being more of a minor issue or non issue than a major issue.

So if past posting is not the problem, why the large odds swings? Why are horses that the rest of the public is dismissing at 9-1, being pounded down to 9/2 by the whales (I had a horse I bet at Gulfstream at 54-1 as they loaded the gate and won at 28-1 I believe another horse-Lambo mentioned in one of these threads I bet was 17-1 loading and won at 8-1(after the race I checked and he was 8.3-1 in the double) The public is not going to be that far off. It has to be pool manipulation. Bet some of their money early on other horse(s), make the public think certain horse(s) are more dead on the board than they actually are or have less chance than they actually do. By the same token they make some horses look more live than they are and have a better chance than they do. A horse that they like that they feel is off the radar of the public they can make look like a hopeless longshot or just make look like a non factor and then on the final flash, bang. In the final seconds they make their balancing wagers, cancellations and they get exactly what they want while the public is confusing itself with why is horse x so live and why horse Y so dead and ignoring horse z because he is 50-1. Meanwhile that was just a mirage to throw off the public.

Obviously if there are 25 or 30 groups or even more groups out there they probably are not all using this approach, but the more I think about it, the more I realize that some of the groups are. At this point I personally am concluding that pool manipulation on top of the the rest of the things I have mentioned is the explanation for these huge odds swings.

[biggestal99]

Originally Posted by Poindexter

PA, you have read posts by Todd and AE. I am sure most of the people that can actually order an investigation, are in the same boat. They believe that past posting is not possible, and they believe that the accuracy of the late money is a reflection of the talents of the Whales and nothing else. If that is your belief why would you wast the time and spend the money to investigate something you are 100% sure is not happening. In fact they were actually reading these threads they would likely be laughing out loud about how stupid they think some us are. Couple that with the fact that this type of cheating doesn't affect racing's bottom line one dollar and I really do not see a lot of motivation for anyone in the racing industry to go out of their way to really investigate if this type of cheating is going on. You can argue that any kind of cheating will cause a financial strain to their core customer base, but so do rebates, crw and whales in general and racing certainly has no problem with them.

So for this reason I am not persuaded at all by your argument. However, as I think about it, the argument I would make for no past posting is that there are reportedly 25 or more groups out there betting huge amounts of money and using rebates to profit. If a couple of groups were past posting and the rest weren't, it seems to me over time that the groups that were past posting would swallow up all the profits and the other groups would have a hard time surviving even with their skill set and rebates. For this reason I will side with past posting being more of a minor issue or non issue than a major issue.

So if past posting is not the problem, why the large odds swings? Why are horses that the rest of the public is dismissing at 9-1, being pounded down to 9/2 by the whales (I had a horse I bet at Gulfstream at 54-1 as they loaded the gate and won at 28-1 I believe another horse-Lambo mentioned in one of these threads I bet was 17-1 loading and won at 8-1(after the race I checked and he was 8.3-1 in the double) The public is not going to be that far off. It has to be pool manipulation. Bet some of their money early on other horse(s), make the public think certain horse(s) are more dead on the board than they actually are or have less chance than they actually do. By the same token they make some horses look more live than they are and have a better chance than they do. A horse that they like that they feel is off the radar of the public they can make look like a hopeless longshot or just make look like a non factor and then on the final flash, bang. In the final seconds they make their balancing wagers, cancellations and they get exactly what they want while the public is confusing itself with why is horse x so live and why horse Y so dead and ignoring horse z because he is 50-1. Meanwhile that was just a mirage to throw off the public.

Obviously if there are 25 or 30 groups or even more groups out there they probably are not all using this approach, but the more I think about it, the more I realize that some of the groups are. At this point I personally am concluding that pool manipulation on top of the the rest of the things I have mentioned is the explanation for these huge odds swings.

Now this makes sense. Countless times on betfair, a 8-1 on betfair is 3,4 - 1 on the tote. It is a sure loser. I am betting this type on betfair. The early tote have it as 25% winner and in reality it’s 7%. Pool manipulation is a huge problem at smaller tracks. I totally ignore the tote prices. I don’t care what their odds are.

Allan

[lamboguy]

The world is full of naive believers. Listen to these self proclaimed ecperts and dream on8

[lamboguy]

I am glad that at the very least we have a few people here that are not blind and foolish. I would not pay attention to the inside racing people telling how fair the bell is. Nothing could be further from the truth

[PaceAdvantage]

Originally Posted by lamboguy

I am glad that at the very least we have a few people here that are not blind and foolish. I would not pay attention to the inside racing people telling how fair the bell is. Nothing could be further from the truth

Can't wait to see your video.