Gotham

[zico20]

Good God, what a horrible race! I wouldn't beat this with your money. The is scratched. I just want to be on record in case my dart throwing number wins. It landed on the Okay, I looked at the race briefly and that is who I came up with, but I am not betting this garbage.

[PalaceOfFortLarned]

Well, it may not be as sexy as the Fountain of Youth or the San Felipe with Baffert star Nysos running, but this is a deep field with a lot of talented and expensive horses looking to make their mark.

Throw in an expected sloppy track, and this is easily the best wagering race of the Triple Crown preps this weekend.

With this being the 1 turn mile at Aqueduct, we have a bunch of sprinters stretching out in this elongated sprint. That likely means a lively pace and likely means chaos. And I love chaos races.

From a pace standpoint, the Maximus Meridius is going to be full send, the local hero El Grande O will need to be forwardly placed, and the Cox trainee Just a Touch should all be in the mix early. And I have to believe one of the other supposed no-chancers is going to be rip roaring up front as well.

Looking at the Deterministic, Bergen, Lightline, or Capital Idea to be mowing 'em down late.

Leaning towards the right now. Has ran nothing but this 1 mile track in his first 2 career starts, and gets a wet track again like he did while romping by 8+ lengths in his last. Thankfully we'll get a bunch of races to watch before this one to see how this particular wet track may be playing.

[PalaceOfFortLarned]

Another note on this race.

Just about every horse in the remaining field is working well, or even in solid work patterns. This one could be a dandy.

[CheckMark]

Gotham Picks

EL GRANDE 8-1
This horse LOVES this track. 5-2-2-0 record with 2 strong efforts in his L2 here, even those were not wins (2 2nd place finishes). Trainer Linda Rice does well with horses 3rd off the layoff (18%/46%). Carmouche stays on this one, and will try his best to take this one gate-to-wire in this wide open event.

LIGHTLINE 8-1
He had a trip from hell, with his last start at Aqueduct. He got bumped at the start, raced into the 2-path into the first turn, then raced 4-wide into the final stretch run to fight his way to a 3rd place finish as the favourite that day. Cox does well with horses that were Beaten Favourites LR (31%/65%), 3rd off the layoff (24%/58%) and of course Graded Stakes (25%/57%). Ramon Vasquez gets the mount today and will be just off the pace here, hopefully with a better trip.

DETERMINISTIC 9/2
Graduated from the maiden ranks his first time asking LR, under a good ride under Rosario who stays on again today. The layoff could help as he has not raced since August of last year, with trainer Clement 18%/48% with horses 90+ days away. Has been working well in the morning, with 4 bullet works in the L6 workouts, with all being a 5F. Rosario will be hoping for a speed battle up front to let this one take charge turning for home.

DEPOSITION 50-1
Huge bomb to put underneath in all exotics and for specific reasons. Sure this one doesn't look the best in terms of his current form. But, if you look at his trainer Uriah St. Lewis, he is 6% in Graded Stakes with a HUGE ROI of 5.34! And in the L90 days, he is only winning at a 5%, but again his ROI is another massive return of 4.15! This one has been working well in the morning with some sharp times in the mix of works his L6. Off the pace for this one today, and could potentially surprise underneath in the exotics.

Best of luck to all!

[Sparky13]

Deterministic, Just A Touch, Bergen.

[PalaceOfFortLarned]

Looks to be a deep and tiring track early, and the rail is a grave.

Granted, we are talking about Maidens and lower level horses, but nobody is skipping along on this surface so far today.

[Ahorsewithnoname]

# Bergen
Franco / Cox

[Ahorsewithnoname]

Honey Fox Stakes Gulfstream Race 13
# For The Flag
Saez / Toner

[lamboguy]

one thing for sure today, The Gotham was a much better race with better horses that ran than The Fountain of Youth.

[PalaceOfFortLarned]

Originally Posted by lamboguy

one thing for sure today, The Gotham was a much better race with better horses that ran than The Fountain of Youth.

This is why I so much enjoy the Triple Crown trail.

SO many lightly raced horses that nobody really knows what they can really do but yet we have hard opinions about horses that simply can't be beat.

It is a lovely time of year to bet against ridiculously overrated favorites off a single race or two.

[rastajenk]

Totally agree.

I would like to have had another line of information on those FOY scratches (that would have made it a deeper field than the Gotham, for what it's worth) going forward, but that's still just part of the calculus ahead of us.

And don't forget about Encino winning from the 12-hole on the 'poly' last night. That unsung race has sent some good ones on to better things recently.

[PalaceOfFortLarned]

Originally Posted by rastajenk

Totally agree.

I would like to have had another line of information on those FOY scratches (that would have made it a deeper field than the Gotham, for what it's worth) going forward, but that's still just part of the calculus ahead of us.

And don't forget about Encino winning from the 12-hole on the 'poly' last night. That unsung race has sent some good ones on to better things recently.

Can't agree more. Also like that last year's bug jock of the year in Alex Concepcion is the rider.

The Turfway trail to the Derby is an up and coming route dating back to Animal Kingdom. Was a big fan when they had Tiz The Bomb, Tawny Port, and Rich Strike running 1,2,3 in the Jeff Ruby Steaks. Unfortunately, I liked Tawny Port the best that year as he was trained by Brad Cox. Rich Strike then blew out the toteboard.

Gotta keep an eye on this Cox trainee. And Epic Ride is no slouch either.

[Fightingirish51195]

I was able to get down on deterministic to win the derby at 150-1 in the morning yesterday.

Couldn’t be more happy with that performance. He seems to have the mind to go along with the ability.

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by Fightingirish51195

I was able to get down on deterministic to win the derby at 150-1 in the morning yesterday.

Couldn’t be more happy with that performance. He seems to have the mind to go along with the ability.

Nice.

His debut was impressive and he moved forward yesterday. He has a long way to go to become a Derby winner, but he hasn't done anything wrong yet.