3rd time starters by trainer

[Valuist]

I started tracking these awhile back and I still haven't seen any published stats on them. I'll throw out one bone: there is NOBODY better with third timers than Ken McPeek. He's around 25% w/second timers but even better third time out. If you see a McPeek runner who's still a maiden in their 4th start, chances are good they won't be winning.

[lamboguy]

this is a great stat. i think alot of times 3rd out means 2nd time lasix. i know it takes some horses 3 times before they figure it out. its a good stat valueman

[BIG HIT]

I have a olmsted's book which show him good frist off 30 day lay off.Note book is dated 1996-1997 and show trainer that good off lay's of least 30 day frist or second start.But not as detailed as what your doing.But his best angle then was above healso good with debut.The book has nothing on anybody thrid off lay.Don't know any value to you but thought interesting seeing how old book is.

[Valuist]

One thing with McPeek is he took about a year off and that messed up the DRF stats because they drop off after a certain time period (not sure if its 1 or 2 years) but he's been back awhile. Granted, he's high percentage in general but here's the numbers I had on him w/3rd timers:
33 starters
14 winners
$4.21 ROI

I stopped tracking a few months ago but its still working. He won w/a 3rd timer recently at TP and again had another 3rd timer win last weekend at Gulfstream.

I think there often is a blinkers on or off with him in the 3rd start. He's pretty good with second timers as well. I would look for one of his runners to run a dull debut, then switch surfaces and run a vastly improved race. On (or off) come the blinkers and he's ready to fire.

[keilan]

Originally Posted by Valuist

I started tracking these awhile back and I still haven't seen any published stats on them. I'll throw out one bone: there is NOBODY better with third timers than Ken McPeek. He's around 25% w/second timers but even better third time out. If you see a McPeek runner who's still a maiden in their 4th start, chances are good they won't be winning.

Geez thanx for the bone Value Guy, but tell us again about the "Hals Hope"

* Delightful Kiss 7-2----are they serious?
* Anak Nakal----6-1---as much as I thought the price on Delightful Kiss was bad, this is downright delusional.

They only ran 1st and 4th in a 14 horse field. Guys like you make me laugh.

Maybe you're delusional

[Valuist]

Originally Posted by keilan

Geez thanx for the bone Value Guy, but tell us again about the "Hals Hope"

* Delightful Kiss 7-2----are they serious?
* Anak Nakal----6-1---as much as I thought the price on Delightful Kiss was bad, this is downright delusional.

They only ran 1st and 4th in a 14 horse field. Guys like you make me laugh.

Maybe you're delusional

Anyone who thought Anak Nakal ran a big race is delusional. You also conveniently left out my saying that Bribon didn't like the GP track, and as the betting favorite he came in 10th. But over the years, we can expect crap like that from you. Once an a$$hole, always an a$$hole.

[keilan]

Originally Posted by Valuist

Anyone who thought Anak Nakal ran a big race is delusional. You also conveniently left out my saying that Bribon didn't like the GP track, and as the betting favorite he came in 10th. But over the years, we can expect crap like that from you. Once an a$$hole, always an a$$hole.

You're a $2 bettor so you're opinion about anything track related means nothing to me. You come on like you know something but you're small in every way. I'd bet you drive a big truck

[Valuist]

McPeek did it again twice today. Granted the first one was a small price but nothing wrong with a $15 winner in Theregoesjojo, who took down two horses coming off triple digit Beyers in recent maiden wins.

[tribecaagent]

I've been taught several sharp angles by $2 bettors. I've also been taught money management & bet structure by $2,000 bettors. Dollar amount has zero to do with information.

The mind is like a parachute, if it's not open, it will not function.

[Bruinswin]

How about McPeek and his fourth time starters?

[Valuist]

Originally Posted by tribecaagent

I've been taught several sharp angles by $2 bettors. I've also been taught money management & bet structure by $2,000 bettors. Dollar amount has zero to do with information.

The mind is like a parachute, if it's not open, it will not function.

If there's any $2 bettors on here, its the moron who was attacking me earlier in the thread. The more he talks, the more foolish he looks.

[turfnsport]

Hey took off from June of '05 until April of '06

Since he came back to training he seems to have more "win early" type maidens. His win % is a good 5-6% or higher in almost all catagories going back over the past year. I guess he brushed up on a few trainng techniques.

Firsters over past 5 yrs: 11%
Just last year: 17%

Second tiimers over past 5 yrs: 26%
Second time starters the past year 32%

Overall last five years: 18%
Past year: 23%

[NY BRED]

One thing I've learned from years of handicapping is
listen to others even if I disagree or favor other modes
in "turf speculation".

Ken Mcpeek's third start of Theregoesjojo in yesterday's 10th race at GP
fit the pattern described by Valuelist, and blew apart a field at 5-1 in which the fav was 1-1 .

While I used the Mcpeek colt in the tri's , I missed the big picture on the win bet.


Thanks for the insight Mr. V