Your Derby Pick & Why

[cj's dad]

I like Dominican off of his Blue Grass effort. Similar to Lil E Tee, Dominican closed well and has some back turf breeding.I Would like to hear others comments.

[douglasw32]

SCAT DADDY

Because...http://spreadsheets.google.com:80/pu...4SPw3AHy0i6IXA
and http://kennedyscorridor.blogspot.com...on-part-1.html

Besides my home brewed DISTANCE FIGURE program ranks him as the imroving horse that can top the rest of them.

[46zilzal]

Originally Posted by cj's dad

I like Dominican off of his Blue Grass effort. Similar to Lil E Tee, Dominican closed well and has some back turf breeding.I Would like to hear others comments.

He's a polytrack specialist.

[Hajck Hillstrom]

Originally Posted by 46zilzal

He's a polytrack specialist.

These are words that Matt Carothers tosses about easily. A Polytrack Specialist will be defined as only running well on the artificial surface. I might call Dominican a Polytrack Specialist if he runs poorly in the Triple Crown, and then returns to the AWT with a winning effort.

I think it might be a little early to tag him with this distinction. Granted, all 3 of his wins are on the AWT, and if he never wins on the dirt, I will bow to your astute assessment.

I just think it is a little soon this early in his career..........

Carry on, Carry on,

Hajck Hillstrom

[Hajck Hillstrom]

Originally Posted by douglasw32

SCAT DADDY

Because...http://spreadsheets.google.com:80/pu...4SPw3AHy0i6IXA
and http://kennedyscorridor.blogspot.com...on-part-1.html

Besides my home brewed DISTANCE FIGURE program ranks him as the imroving horse that can top the rest of them.

Thank you for the links. It is always good to have assessments confirmed.

Three horse box SCATDADDY, STREET SENSE, COWTOWN CAT with ALL in the Superfecta. 6,7,14 with 6,7,14, with 6,7,14,16,19,20 with ALL.

Carry on, Carry on,

Hajck Hillstrom

[douglasw32]

I should mention I have no connection with the blog I linked to I found it on a google search, then it was on equidaily.com, the dude has alot of stats and that is some darn good results.

[ponyplayerdotca]

This is my one and only post on who I think will win this year's Derby.

Heading into the Kentucky Derby.....

STREET SENSE

Third off the layoff (third of his current cycle)
Hard run on tricky dirt at Tampa (wins by a snoot)
Hard run on fake dirt at Keeneland (loses by a snoot in a weird race)
Win over the Churchill Downs dirt (BC Juvenile)
Faced top competition thoughout his last 3 races

Synthetic-to-dirt angle: horses running over Polytrack seem to comeback and race stronger over conventional dirt in their next race (similar to the turf-to-dirt angle)

And if you buy into the "maybe he didn't like the PolyTrack" argument, not a bad race for a compromised race, is it?

Adversity builds character, and his two close finishes may provide him with the needed "battle tested" ingredient that benefits him in the long stretch on Saturday. Nafzger has him ready I believe.

First BC Juvenile Champion to actually comeback and win the Kentucky Derby? I think this is the year it happens. He's my win pick. Looking for 6-1 or so on the odds board.

[Bubbles]

I like Scat Daddy by a slim margin over Street Sense. The horse just keeps on winning. In the 14 hole, he'll have as good a chance of a clean break as possible, and should settle in off the leaders nicely. In regards to Street Sense, I draw a line through his BC win. There is NO way that scenario will play Saturday. He has looked very sharp this year, and merits placing near the top.

Meanwhile, the main question is: What horses do you plug in BEHIND those two?

[depalma13]

After today's draw, I see this as Curlin's race to lose. Taking Stormello off of the pace and gift wrapping an inside post position to a horse who they could have completely screwed up by forcing him outside, makes this race far easier to handicap than it could have been.

We now have two horses who will go for the lead, Hard Spun and Cowtown Cat. Tueflesberg will secure third, leaving fourth for Curlin. The half will go in nearly :48. He is not going to have to worry about Derby traffic. Midway on teh far turn Cowtown Cat will check out of it and Curlin will find himself looming large on a tiring Hard Spun at the top of the stretch. The closers have no shot and the stalkers will try to catch him. Unfortunately for the rest of the field, this is where he is at his best. The horse will cruise home by 3 1/2 lengths.

Nobiz Like Showbiz fills out the exacta, with Hard Spun holding on for third.

Of course a hundred other things could happen that could cost him the race, but I'll go with my scenerio.

[Jinxed]

Because he is owned by good friends of mine that have loads of faith in him..I'm going with "Hard Spun"..great odds right now of 15/1. He has a rookie trainer and a rookier jocky in Mario Pino, but his chances are good from the 8 hole. I'm putting $100.00 across the board on him.

Good luck to all of you with your Derby picks.
Jinxed

[JPinMaryland]

Originally Posted by depalma13

We now have two horses who will go for the lead, Hard Spun and Cowtown Cat. Tueflesberg will secure third, leaving fourth for Curlin.
.

How is Tuefl. going to secure third when he breaks poorly in every single race he's been in ? NOt that the rest of the post doesnt make sense, it could happen, I just think Teuf. has a real problem in a 20 horse field.

[gIracing]

break poorly or not, there is not THAT much speed in the derby, and if he breaks poorly he will just exert that much more entergy to get TO the lead..in 10-15 races, it's what he does. he's been doing it since he was 2 and he won't stop now. and in all honesty it's his best chance to win, if he has one at all. His only wish to win is to get the lead and take them in about another :50 half, which isn't going ot happen, but that's his only chance.

[cj's dad]

Meanwhile, the main question is: What horses do you plug in BEHIND those two? [/QUOTE]

As I told your father at Saratoga, "that's why God made the all button"

Good Luck Bubbles

[GaryG]

CURLIN....He has shown brilliance and is steadily improving. He looks to me like he will go 10f. The nature of racing is changing. Barbaro showed you could win it off a layoff. Cold deck exacta with Street Sense with a smaller reverse.

[pressman]

#14 with the #18,#19 And #20 underneath