BLUE GRASS-ARKANSAS BEYERS

[horseplayer7776]

93 for Blue Grass and 103 for Ark Derby.

[sjk]

Doesn't anyone else care about Kee 5?

[chickenhead]

Pure Star?

[sjk]

That's us.

Thanks R

[chickenhead]

Nice debut

[sjk]

Thanks for the good words.

[john del riccio]

Originally Posted by horseplayer7776

93 for Blue Grass and 103 for Ark Derby.

There is no way the Blue Grass figure of 93 is right, it won't matter much in the next big race at CD because it should only be used for comparison when races are being run on Polytrack. Think about what this figure represents in absolute terms.... This becomes another GREAT betting opportunity at some point in the future for those coming out of this race because they will be left alone at the
windows.

John

[LemonSoupKid]

The whole issue with Beyers is that they are normalized for that surface and that day. Also, the race's 1/2 was in 51+change so it's not like it was a tough race, all the jocks were holding the horses back, so the race ultimately wasn't that fast although they all closed well. That's why this race is untelling ... it won't be like that in the Derby at all. Read Beyer's article, it's interesting.

LSK

[john del riccio]

Originally Posted by LemonSoupKid

The whole issue with Beyers is that they are normalized for that surface and that day. Also, the race's 1/2 was in 51+change so it's not like it was a tough race, all the jocks were holding the horses back, so the race ultimately wasn't that fast although they all closed well. That's why this race is untelling ... it won't be like that in the Derby at all. Read Beyer's article, it's interesting.

LSK

LSK,

Speed figures are not, and have never been, simply about raw time.
If they were, they would have disappeared long ago. There is no doubt in my mind that the figure is way too low and the pace of the race being slow doesn't mean that the overall race should be viewed as slow.

Thoroughbreds can only run so fast, and final times are affected significantly when the pace of the race is abnornmally slow. That is what happened in this case. The last 2 races on the card were (should have been for Beyer as well) broken out on my ratings. The Blue Grass was NOT an inferior race as the Beyer would lead you to beleive. Going into the derby, it makes no sense to make DIRECT comparisons using any Polytrack figure when the Derby is being run on the real stuff but the Blue Grass can certainly be used to detect improvments in form.

John

[kenwoodallpromos]

Let's see- was the old saying Beyers Speed figures makes the race, or "PACE makes the race"?

[46zilzal]

Let's say you are evaluating a team for the NCAA basketball March madness and they played their last game in someone's back yard on grass. That is how close the Blue Grass race would be to comparing to the Derby this year.

[chickenhead]

Originally Posted by john del riccio

Speed figures are not, and have never been, simply about raw time.

But they are exclusively about final time, which in this case was very slow.

Originally Posted by john del riccio

There is no doubt in my mind that the figure is way too low and the pace of the race being slow doesn't mean that the overall race should be viewed as slow.

The race was slow due to the slow pace, rather than the track speed. The Speed Figure should be low.

[john del riccio]

Originally Posted by chickenhead

But they are exclusively about final time, which in this case was very slow.




The race was slow due to the slow pace, rather than the track speed. The Speed Figure should be low.

CH,

Some speed figures are exclusively about final time, others are not, the ones that are not are by far more accurate and accuracy is what speed figures are all about.

I am sure that anyone who is has ever seriously undertaken making variants would strongly disagree with "The race was slow due to the slow pace, rather than the track speed. The Speed Figure should be low". The reason is because when these horses run back vs. other competition, you will need to appraise their ability accurately. If they are running on POLY, you should be able to DIRECTLY compare figures (pace and variant) to assess the talent
of each as well as how the pace scenario will play out. If you can't do that, the figures are of no use. This discussion will play out when these horses
eventually run back on Polytrack at some point in time but to say that this race was as slow as Beyer has it, is just not accurate. The public will look at that figure at some point and bet accordingly, I will take advantage of that when the opportunity is presented to me.

John

[chickenhead]

WRONG WRONG WRONG. At least from my POV. You are making the case exactly as to why speed figures in a vacuum are of marginal utility, but speed figures coupled with pace figures are worth so much.

I really couldn't disagree with you more as to what a Beyer type speed figure is meant to measure. It most definitely should not be your guess as to how fast they could have ran under a different pace scenario, it should be how fast they ran under this one.

Again, that is just what I want in a figure, what works for me.

[chickenhead]

Originally Posted by john del riccio

The reason is because when these horses run back vs. other competition, you will need to appraise their ability accurately.

Just to make sure you understand what I'm saying, this is where the pace fig comes in. A seperate pace fig gives the all important context to the speed fig. You are advocating basically mashing them both together, which is fine, but imo that is not a beyer type speed fig, that is a performance or power rating.