Suppose we have a Triple Crown winner

[ryesteve]

Let me toss some numbers into the mix. First, let me point out these are TSN figs, not Beyers, but I don't think that should make a huge difference.

Anyway, so far in 2008, 193 3yos have run in Graded races with a purse of $250k or higher. The average best-of-last-3 fig for these horses was 92.2. In 2007, 165 3yos ran in similar races thru April; their average best-of-last-3-fig was 93.5. Yep, that's a pretty decent difference; however, with around 15% fewer horses under consideration, the difference could be attributed to fewer weaker horses dragging down the average. Going back to 2006, which I think we'd agree was a pretty good crop, there were 180 3yos who ran in such races through April and their average best-of-last-3-fig was 92.3, which is basically the same as this crop. So based on this, I wouldn't be able to call this bunch inferior.

[Bruddah]

Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage

Nowhere in this thread have I stated that I disagree with your opinion. I only requested to see how you arrived at such.

You have presented your data, and I have thanked you for that already, sir.

I could have done without my math abilities being called into question, and being labeled a potential dyslexic, but I digress.....

It's interesting to note that the toughest year out of the last five, according to the data posted, is the Smarty Jones year....

Also in my opinion, the toughest Ky Derby field and track surface to win over those same years. I look forward to seeing if any of his progeny make it to the Derby and TC.

[Bruddah]

2007...Street Sense...odds 4.90 (fav)

Highest Beyer 108...3rd race back...B.C. Juvenile
Last race back 93...Blue Grass

Horse(s) with Best Beyer(s) coming into the Derby...Liquidity 102 Sham...Circular Quay 102...Any Given Saturday Tampa Bay Dby...

2006...Barbaro...odds 6.10

Highest Beyer 103...Fla. Derby
Last race back 103..Fla. Derby

Horse(s) with Best Beyer(s) coming into the Derby...Keyed Entry 110 Hutcheson...Sinister Minister 116 Blue Grass...Sweetnorthernsaint 109 IlL. Derby...Brother Derek 108 SA Derby...Lawyer Ron 106 Risen Star

2005...Giacomo...odds 50.30]

Highest Beyer 98...3rd race back Sham
Last race back 95...S.A Derby

Horse(s) with Best Beyer(s) coming into the Derby...Bellamy Road 120 Wood Mem...Afleet Alex 108 Ark. Derby...High Limit 104 Blue Grass

2004...Smarty Jones... 4.10 (fav)
Highest Beyer 108...Rebel
Last race back 107...Ark. Derby

Horse(s) with Best Beyer(s) coming into the Derby...Lion Heart 110 Blue Grass...The Cliff's Edge 111 Blue Grass...Pollards Vision 107 Ill. Derby

2003...Funny Cide...odds 12.80
Highest Beyer...110...Blue Grass
Last race back..110..Blue Grass

Horse(s) with Best Beyer(s) coming into the Derby...Empire Maker 111 Wood mem...Ten Most Wanted 110 Ill. Derby

[rastajenk]

I think Funny Cide prepped with Empire Maker in the Wood, not the Bleu Grasse.

[Bruddah]

My bad in typing....Thanks for the catch.

[Semipro]

Am I missing something here I thought this was the place where the fallacies of the Beyers are known but now are vital in comparing 3yr old crops.There are those who have 40 years of experience and those that have one year of experience 40 times.

[joanied]

I just read this entire thread I have a few things to add, although I am not a handicapper, so will probably catch hell from Bruddah for it... did you get up on the wrong side of the bed when you posted... I don't know why anyone has to start name calling other members, regardless of what the topic is. Nice is always, well....nice
Everyone has their own way of doing things, and I don't think it matters much wether you've been handicapping for 40 years, or 40 days... no reason to blast someone else for their opinions or way of handicapping.

This crop of colts may not have those few stellar standouts, but they are a good bunch of consistant 3 yr. olds, many of which will improove as they mature...I don't think we need to knock any of them for any reason...especailly this early in the season.

I mentioned in another post that I beleive we'll see a different horse win each leg of the TC...but as everyone here wishes...I wish we would have that TC winner...for all the obvious reasons. The close calls we've had over the last several years have been heartbreakers...maybe it's time for the racing gods to give us all a wonderful gift...be it by a very talented horse, or through pure racing luck...it sure would be so outstanding!!

And that...is all she wrote!!

[Bruddah]

you must have skipped over the first post. My original post was very innocuous. It wasn't until PA challenged me to prove personal opinions, using his criteria of how I should formulate my response, that I responded. I told him in another post my opinions were based on Beyers and pedigrees.

He continued to "egg me on" with a challenge, and I gave him my facts. If you can't see how I proved my personal opinions, using his criteria, so be it.

[Pell Mell]

Having been handicapping for 60 yrs and being a young Airman 58 yrs ago, I think the Beyers are a factor that is best ignored. On another website I touted Smarty months before the derby and did the same with Barbaro and did call Barbaros winning margin.
I think there is a reason or two for the way this years race is shaping up. One is the switching back and forth between dirt and artificial tracks. The other is the ever changing methods being employed by trainers. If it wern't for the money requirements we would probably see first time starters entered.
And speaking of trainers, I think Pletcher will win it this year because he has his horses peaking at the right time.

[joanied]

Originally Posted by Bruddah

you must have skipped over the first post. My original post was very innocuous. It wasn't until PA challenged me to prove personal opinions, using his criteria of how I should formulate my response, that I responded. I told him in another post my opinions were based on Beyers and pedigrees.

He continued to "egg me on" with a challenge, and I gave him my facts. If you can't see how I proved my personal opinions, using his criteria, so be it.

Nope...I read that too...
... and the bottom line has to be in the way each person interprets a post.
I don't think PA CHALLENGED you, he was just asking you to provide more information....that's what I got out of it....and in my eyes, it was kinda a compliment that he asked you to explain how you arrived at your conclusions.
Simple, eh!!

BUT...regardless of anything, I just don't see the need for anyone to call someone else names...or belittle a person in any way at all...
I'm sure everyone in this thread has seen how you proved your personal opinions, Bruddah, using PA's criteria... and I beleive PA said so:

Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage
Nowhere in this thread have I stated that I disagree with your opinion. I only requested to see how you arrived at such.

You have presented your data, and I have thanked you for that already, sir.

I could have done without my math abilities being called into question, and being labeled a potential dyslexic, but I digress.....


the last sentence in the above quote...that's what I am talking about.
I'd bet that you are a really nice guy, Bruddah....so, come on, don't you feel just a little bit sorry you questioned someone's math skills and called them dyslexic...and see how PA tries to make light of it...
so I think everyone needs to lighten up, and have fun, learn, opine, hash out this and that, but refrain from name calling...
"sticks and stones may break my bones"... is true....but "words will never harm me" is as true as the sky is falling.

OK?

[Bruddah]

When it comes to buttin' heads with PA...Not at All.

[joanied]

Originally Posted by Bruddah

When it comes to buttin' heads with PA...Not at All.

Bruddah.... HUH? I don't understand "Not at all"

[MutuelClerk]

I'm more of a harness fan, and I like reading all the input here. Thanks for the info. I also wanted to make a post without emoticons. Just to see if it could be done. Ty.

[DirtTrack]

Every year brings the same thing "This is the worst crop of 3 YO's in XX years"
Then years later the same horses are mentioned as great when compared to the current 3 YO crop

So let me see if I got this straight?
Last years crop was terrible but Curlin was Horse of the Year and beat older horses with ease in the worlds 2 largest dirt races while at the same time not winning 2 of the 3 TC races to the so called terrible 3 YO crop (including Belmont loss to the filly)

Of my 20+ years in following the TC the only year I remember not hearing how soft, weak or all out terrible the 3YO crop is was 1989 when Easy Goer was hyped so heavily but even then we still heard that the rest of the crop was weak - maybe someone should have told Sunday Silence he was not worthy

Some mentioned earlier that it is too early in the year to write any of this crop off and I agree.
Big Brown may not win the derby but will be a monster horse once developed and I am sure once several others have passed the prep race game will show their true colors (good or bad)

[Semipro]

Originally Posted by DirtTrack

Every year brings the same thing "This is the worst crop of 3 YO's in XX years"
Then years later the same horses are mentioned as great when compared to the current 3 YO crop

So let me see if I got this straight?
Last years crop was terrible but Curlin was Horse of the Year and beat older horses with ease in the worlds 2 largest dirt races while at the same time not winning 2 of the 3 TC races to the so called terrible 3 YO crop (including Belmont loss to the filly)

Of my 20+ years in following the TC the only year I remember not hearing how soft, weak or all out terrible the 3YO crop is was 1989 when Easy Goer was hyped so heavily but even then we still heard that the rest of the crop was weak - maybe someone should have told Sunday Silence he was not worthy

Some mentioned earlier that it is too early in the year to write any of this crop off and I agree.
Big Brown may not win the derby but will be a monster horse once developed and I am sure once several others have passed the prep race game will show their true colors (good or bad)

I agree 100%