Your Derby Pick & Why

[DirtTrack]

CURLIN!!!
Because he will win

[bellsbendboy]

J Pin Md If a horse is in front how does he run into traffic?

Greyfox 'Quay has been undergoing therapy twice a week for sore shins. The poly is much more forgiving than the CD surface.

Cratos I am told the fractions (late) Arkansas derby day were all quick.

By ANY 'capping measure 'Sense beats this bunch a pole. BBB

[delayjf]

Given that High pace figure and his Pedigree, I'm going with Any Given Saturday. His 2nd race back showed me he can rate. He got some good conditioning in that last race and should move forward.

Curlin looks for real off that last race. He's shown the most to date. But none have really shown the ability that one would expect from a Derby winner yet. Any one could improve to win.

[Wickel]

Any Given Saturday in a shocker. With Stormello inside of him-who will zip for the lead--then a couple of deep closers, AGS figures on moving in significantly before the first turn. If Gomez plays his cards right, he'll be sitting in the garden spot, clear on the outside when the real running begins. I expect Curlin to get swallowed up on the first turn. No Biz and Street could find some traffic early, too, if several figure to shoot for the front. AGS will sit chilly and let loose on the turn. His two stablemates--Scat Daddy and Circular Quay--worry me most. Toss them, along with Great Hunter and Tiago into the exotics.

[sam i am]

I like STREET SENSE I just think he is the best horse in the race.
Will use with NOBIZ again has good foundation and in great hands.
STORMELLO is the fastest horse in the race for a mile and an eighth I really think if he stayed in Cal instead of flying another 3000 miles for the Fla Derby he would be less then 10-1, I total forgive the Fla Derby, I expected a reaction after the gut wrenching FOY coming after a 3 mo layoff.

Of the last 50 derby winners 43 of them have been within 1 lng of the lead at the 8th pole. Stormello will be on most of my tix.

[NYPlayer]

I bet Street Sense in the Derby futures, so there's no sense in turning back now. It's kind-of-a one way street with those future bets. I was impressed with his devolopment as a 2yo, although his performance in the Bluegrass was a bit disappointing.

I also would love to bet Any Given Saturday. I hate his post position though, and this horse was ridden needlessly wide in Tampa and Aqueduct. Even if he runs a great number, the logistics of the racetrack and human stupidity may conspire against him.

Scat daddy is my third choice, but I just might use him as much as I do AGS.

Great Hunter is very intriguing, but again the post is a real negative. I'll use him in the triple though.

Hard Spun, Cowtown Cat, and a few others will round out the triple. I'll let the tote board guide me.

Good luck to everyone...this race is tough!

[Bignick63]

I respect Dominican but feel he has to get better off his last to win and I am not sure he will at thi point. His last 2 races came from nowhere and I am not sure if that was his ceiling right now. What do you think?

[Bignick63]

I agree with Street Sense. I got him on top. He could be a special horse.

[michiken]

Something bothers me about Street Sense.

Early in his career, he was running on the lead and then converted over to a closing style (S) horse. In the breeders cup, he definitely had the ability time advantage but the energy distribution of this was totally wrong. I am factoring in the rail bias and looking elsewhere.

From my figs, it looks like Hard Spun, Scat Daddy, Stormello could be on the lead followed by Imawildandcrazyguy and Sedgefield. I am hoping that all of these horses melt down and fall off the board.

Curlin appears to have beaten modest fractions but was convincing in the wins. It is hard to gage the pace scenario so I will use only in the exotics.

Storm in May, Liquidity, Bwana Bull, Sam P, Tuefelsberg, Hard Spun and No Biz Like show Biz are also my throwouts.

My top picks left with:

Circular Quay
Tiago
Cowtown Cat
Any Given Saturday
Zanjero
Dominican
Scat Daddy

I see AGS, Cowtown and Scat on the lead with the others closing. I give the closing nod to

Circular Quay - Dominican - Cowtown Cat - Tiago in any order.

[Loserdave]

Great Hunter. I liked how easily he moved in the Bob Lewis and the Bluegrass did not turn me off of him and at the end of Oaks day he is 26-1.

[headhawg]

Given that there is no superstar in here, I like Any Given Saturday especially on an off track. He's bred to go long and for the mud, and is one of the few in here with two triple digit CJs.

My other win contenders are Street Sense and Nobiz, and I will be using Circular Quay and Zanjero underneath in some ex/tri part wheel combos.

[Kelso]

Exacta Box: Hard Spun, Scat Daddy, Nobiz Like Shobiz, Any Given Saturday, Circular Quay

Wish I could afford: Cowtown Cat

Wish I knew why I'm not betting him: Curlin

Don't understand all the fuss: Street Sense (struggled in both Tampa and Keenland)

(Value Buy in Futures Pool: Teuflesberg at 53-1. Wouldn't that be somethin'!?! )


Many thanks to all the PA posters who have helped me arrive at my current state of hopeful confusion, blissful delusion ... and the ever-popular irrational exuberance.

Good luck to all.

[JPinMaryland]

Originally Posted by michiken

From my figs, it looks like Hard Spun, Scat Daddy, Stormello could be on the lead followed by Imawildandcrazyguy and Sedgefield. I am hoping that all of these horses melt down and fall off the board....

I see AGS, Cowtown and Scat on the lead with the others closing. I give the closing nod to

This is a very interesting post but you left out one important question: How fast will they go the first 3/4?

Help me with that..

[Greyfox]

Originally Posted by bellsbendboy

J
Greyfox 'Quay has been undergoing therapy twice a week for sore shins. The poly is much more forgiving than the CD surface.

Quay has been off two months.
D.W. Lukas was asked if he'd send a horse with that inadequate preparation.
He replied something to the effect.
"No. Neither would Todd unless something or someone told him to.."

There is "hype" both ways.
Those who brag a horse up. Those who brag a horse down.
Neither can be believed.
The bottom line is : The best horse in the Derby is C.Q.
But maybe not today!
This might be a prep or a test for the Preakness or Belmont.
The word is that this colt is sore. "A friend of a friend of a vet said so"
is the rumor. It's all over the net.
That may well be.
The problem, running wise , is that Quay, is a deep closer.
Traffic and whatever could be a problem even on a fair surface.
The track may determine whether or not it has any chance at all,
even if it isn't sore. In the meanwhile, I will play this one...but cautiously.

[JPinMaryland]

thanks for the tip, I am off to hammer Sedgfield now.