Betting on Superfectas in the KD

[wallstplyr]

Well, a friend and I are seriously considering betting $2,000 on strictly $1 superfectas on the KD boxing up a whole bunch of numbers (approx. 83 boxes on this bankroll). We would do our top 10 selections and mix them up along with series of boxes with some far fetched selections since anything can happen in the Derby.

Are we crazy to do so? We normally bet anywhere between $200-$700 on the KD, but this year we want to swing for the fences by focusing only on the superfectas with a $2k bankroll.

Thanks for your thoughts!

[uncbossfan]

If that was me I would go

6 x 8 x 9 x 10 = $2,058

[boomman]

Originally Posted by wallstplyr

Well, a friend and I are seriously considering betting $2,000 on strictly $1 superfectas on the KD boxing up a whole bunch of numbers (approx. 83 boxes on this bankroll). We would do our top 10 selections and mix them up along with series of boxes with some far fetched selections since anything can happen in the Derby.

Are we crazy to do so? We normally bet anywhere between $200-$700 on the KD, but this year we want to swing for the fences by focusing only on the superfectas with a $2k bankroll.

Thanks for your thoughts!

I agree with the poster who suggested the part wheel approach, as in this case that gives you the "best bang for your buck". Of course, in their infinite wisdom, Churchill announced that dime supers will be available AFTER the Derby, which is their vain attempt to put more $ in the superfecta pools by hanging on to the $1 minimum! WRONG Steve Sexton!! Let me say it again for you guys, but more slowly this time: T-h-e l-o-w-e-r t-h-e d-e-n-o-m-i-n-a-t-i-o-n, t-h-e- m-o-r-e- t-h-a-t- i-s w-a-g-e-r-e-d!! And if they don't believe me, ask 'em to explain what happened when Santa Anita went from the dinosaur $5 exacta miminum down to the $1 minimum several years ago! DUH! LOL

Boomer

[Ron]

There's 3 scenarios.


You don't hit.
You hit and it doesn't even pay $2000.
You hit and it pays big.

[DirtTrack]

Originally Posted by boomman

Churchill announced that dime supers will be available AFTER the Derby, which is their vain attempt to put more $ in the superfecta pools by hanging on to the $1 minimum! WRONG Steve Sexton!! Let me say it again for you guys, but more slowly this time: T-h-e l-o-w-e-r t-h-e d-e-n-o-m-i-n-a-t-i-o-n, t-h-e- m-o-r-e- t-h-a-t- i-s w-a-g-e-r-e-d!! And if they don't believe me, ask 'em to explain what happened when Santa Anita went from the dinosaur $5 exacta miminum down to the $1 minimum several years ago! DUH! LOL
Boomer

Boomer nailed this one

Betting from the poor mans angle for years and betting at smaller tracks I can fully attest to this theory:
Normally under the $1 min a better would bet 2 over 2 for a $4 bet or 1 over 3 for a $6 bet
Under the dime min same better is likely to bet 1 over 5 for $12 - better value for the buck

[wallstplyr]

Originally Posted by uncbossfan

If that was me I would go

6 x 8 x 9 x 10 = $2,058

too much of a risk to do that... there are like 10 (or even more) horses who are very capable of getting first. can't limit such a deep talent pool of horses to only 6 to get the win...

what do most experienced bettors do on big races like this? like what's the average bankroll, etc.

thanks again!

[chickenhead]

you are talking about playing "quick picks" essentially. Lottery tickets. Which is fine, but not to be confused with handicapping and wagering for a long term profit.

Good luck

[Ron]

Originally Posted by wallstplyr

too much of a risk to do that... there are like 10 (or even more) horses who are very capable of getting first. can't limit such a deep talent pool of horses to only 6 to get the win...

what do most experienced bettors do on big races like this? like what's the average bankroll, etc.

thanks again!

I think the most experienced players can pick the winner to be one of 6 horses.

[uncbossfan]

Originally Posted by wallstplyr

too much of a risk to do that... there are like 10 (or even more) horses who are very capable of getting first. can't limit such a deep talent pool of horses to only 6 to get the win...

what do most experienced bettors do on big races like this? like what's the average bankroll, etc.

thanks again!

Interesting - I guess that just goes to show how many differing opinions there are in the handicapping game...I thought I was going to get bashed for buying 30% of the field on top.

[JPinMaryland]

errh: 6 x 8 x 9 x 10= $4320 doesnt it?

[uncbossfan]

Originally Posted by JPinMaryland

errh: 6 x 8 x 9 x 10= $4320 doesnt it?

It does but if you use the same horses all the way through, you calculate it
6 x 7 x 7 x 7 = $2,058

[how cliche]

Exotics Calculator: http://www.horseracinggold.com/ewc.exe

[gIracing]

I have 1 superfecta in my head that I am going to play, because it has been in my head for the last 2 weeks, it's like the race just unfolds in my head.

Other than that I am playing the race just like i would play any other race.

[Edward DeVere]

Originally Posted by Ron

There's 3 scenarios.


You don't hit.
You hit and it doesn't even pay $2000.
You hit and it pays big.

And as Woody Hayes would say: "Two of 'em are bad."

[Edward DeVere]

Two thoughts immediately spring to mind:

1.) I can't see putting $2000 into the superfecta trying to hit it once.
2.) You have to hate the chances of the two favorites - Curlin and Street Sense - in order to put $2000 into the super.