BLUE GRASS-ARKANSAS BEYERS

[46zilzal]

Originally Posted by Tom

An early bias doesn't neccessarily mean fast times, and fast times don't always mean early energy distribution.

mutally exclusive to one another...

[DirtTrack]

Since the last 1/8 was under 12 by 4 runners you can hardly blame the slow times and ratings on track conditions unless they had paved the home stretch

Obvious jocks and trainers were all trying to play the track bias for closers and no one wanted to make an early charge or take a big lead (not that anyone blames them - probably would have done the same)
Result was slow pace, times and ratings (even for polytrack)

Probably good idea to review this groups other races before the derby since it will actually have a pace and run nothing like the BG

[cj]

Originally Posted by DirtTrack

Since the last 1/8 was under 12 by 4 runners you can hardly blame the slow times and ratings on track conditions unless they had paved the home stretch

Actually, that is a very real possibility. It has to do with the sales and where the 2yos strut there stuff.

[DirtTrack]

Was at Oaklawn on the same day
If wanting to gripe on Beyers it seems Curlin supporters would have more of a stance than the BG group
Track was listed as Fast but after 2 days of heavy rain, completely overcast day with storms and more rain coming and going it was no where near a Fast Track Not to mention 40 degree weather and ever shifting 20+mph winds...

Seen Curlin live twice for the Rebel and Arkansas Derby - he is the real deal
While Derby History may not be in his favor for not running as a 2yo and only having 3 races under his belt he appears every bit as good if not better than both Smarty and Alex
Please remember that a good part of the Derby jinxes of the 20th Century have been overcome in the 21st (Barbaro not running 5 weeks before Derby last year is a good example)

Will state here what I told one friend about Florida for March Madness and another about Curlin for Arkansas Derby:
DON'T THROW OUT THE WINNER BECAUSE YOU DON'T LIKE THE ODDS

[cj]

I knew Pulpit. Curlin is no Pulpit. We know how things turned out for him. It could be a lot uglier for Curlin.

Official track condition has zero to do with the Beyer figures.

[DirtTrack]

Originally Posted by cj

I knew Pulpit. Curlin is no Pulpit. We know how things turned out for him. It could be a lot uglier for Curlin.

Other than not running as 2yo's not really an even close comparison:
Pulpit got ran to death the month before the Derby and was challenged and even lost in Florida
Curlin won Maiden by 12 in early February
Purchased for 3.5 mil
Won Rebel around a 6 weeks later without being asked to run
Hand rode win in Arkansas Derby by 10 lengths

Bet what you want - I would gladly take your $$$ at the ticket window just like from my other friends in March Madness and @ Oaklawn

Do need 2nd, 3rd and 4th for the exotics though - any ideas???

[DirtTrack]

Originally Posted by cj

Official track condition has zero to do with the Beyer figures.

Sounds like you are just wanting to debate today

Beyer's do take track conditions in as a factor (Official, actual, whatever...) but think what you want

DRF, Brisnet and whoever else you get your form from will have the Ark.Derby listed as fast and a 103 Beyer.
Giving some inside info here that the track was soft, weather was terrible and the horse won a million $ race by 10 lengths without breaking a sweat.

Best Wishes and Good Luck

[Tom]

Theses are all the major preps, by 2 furlong increments and final fraction, adjsuted by Beyer variant. Gues which one is the Bluegrass!

[JPinMaryland]

wow that is hurting my eyes.