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07-18-2011, 08:45 PM
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#16
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clean money
Join Date: Sep 2006
Location: Maryland
Posts: 23,559
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in general
i like big-time connections with horses 1ST OUT or OFFLAYOFF when you see a solid worktab and you can clearly see the horse was pointed here. I like these types particularly over "solid" "consistent" returners from belmont.
also try to think a little more in terms of post position, early speed, paying attention to the TRACKBIAS both TODAY + LAST OUT (for returning groups from BEL)
__________________
Preparation. Discipline. Patience. Decisiveness.
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07-18-2011, 09:06 PM
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#17
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Refugee from Bowie
Join Date: Nov 2007
Posts: 1,598
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Nick Zito was 2-31 at the recently concluded Belmont meet, both Spa shippers.
He's locked and loaded for bear upstate.
You can thank me later.
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07-18-2011, 09:20 PM
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#18
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2011
Posts: 52
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Shemp Howard
Nick Zito was 2-31 at the recently concluded Belmont meet, both Spa shippers.
He's locked and loaded for bear upstate.
You can thank me later.
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If Zito has some live ones they will show up in the 2 turn dirt races.
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07-18-2011, 09:50 PM
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#19
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The Voice of Reason!
Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: Canandaigua, New york
Posts: 112,887
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Listen to TLG in the morning handicapping sessions. You will get some nice winners and learn a few things as well.
__________________
Who does the Racing Form Detective like in this one?
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07-18-2011, 10:14 PM
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#20
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Registered User
Join Date: Sep 2010
Posts: 461
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Shemp Howard
Nick Zito was 2-31 at the recently concluded Belmont meet, both Spa shippers.
He's locked and loaded for bear upstate.
You can thank me later.
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Zito had 16 wins in 93 starts at GP - 17% and he has 33 wins in 233 starts total.
That's 17 wins in 140 starts. 12% outside of GP
I could be wrong but does he have the horse power to be locked and loaded for Saratoga?
He had 7 wins in 60 starts in 2009 at Saratoga and 2 wins in 43 starts in 2010 plus he only had 1 win in 43 starts last fall at Belmont.
I just don't see the stable turning it around so quickly after a very average to below average past 18 months.
Without this winter at GP his stats would be brutal.
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07-18-2011, 10:31 PM
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#21
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Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2007
Posts: 1,133
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ernie simons
Nicely put HandyKapper. And those that do share info surely must know that it's greatly appreciated.
And obviously it MUST be a personality thing. But it's a pretty good thing.
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Yo, ernie simons.
Welcome back! I have learned so much from you about "early money." I won't repeat my redboards but: <ML at 10MTP >ML at PT .....I luv! Still learning!
Thank you,
Tape Reader
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07-18-2011, 11:06 PM
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#22
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DimeSupers Really Are!
Join Date: Sep 2007
Location: Massachusetts
Posts: 2,095
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Tom
Listen to TLG in the morning handicapping sessions.
You will get some nice winners and learn a few things as well.
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Right On, Right On, Right On!
when Andy did Siros Seminars with Harvey Pack, when i'd
come up for a Sun/Mon stay, i'd leave Mass. by 6AM so i could
get to the Malta Diner by 9AM for classic Diner Breakfast,
Top Hill Motel Check-in by 10AM, & pull into Siros parking lot
by 10:15AM, giving me 15min.to find a good seat.
i first heard about "Formulator PP's" at Siros seminars!
Don't Miss "Talking Horses" for weak faves & live longshots!
__________________
[/url]
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07-19-2011, 07:26 AM
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#23
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The Voice of Reason!
Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: Canandaigua, New york
Posts: 112,887
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The highlight of Toga used to be getting there early for the Siro's banter with an ice cold beer or two or three.
__________________
Who does the Racing Form Detective like in this one?
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07-19-2011, 08:15 AM
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#24
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Registered User
Join Date: Nov 2001
Location: new york
Posts: 160
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Tape Reader
Yo, ernie simons.
Welcome back! I have learned so much from you about "early money." I won't repeat my redboards but: <ML at 10MTP >ML at PT .....I luv! Still learning!
Thank you,
Tape Reader
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Thanks Tape Reader. I guess we're all still learning.
__________________
"A gambler with a system must be, to a greater or lesser extent, insane."
-George Augustus Sala (1828-95) English writer and journalist
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07-19-2011, 08:15 AM
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#25
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Registered User
Join Date: Sep 2005
Posts: 1,827
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Watch for a trainer to get hot with two year olds firsters. I've seen all of the list put them over in bunches, before the crowd starts to catch on. Previous year stats don't mean much.
Mott is my guess, he had 2 winners at Belmont, which surprised me. He was zero for 20 last year.
Could be any of the the following.
1. Pletcher
2. Brown
3. Zito
4. Mott
5. Hough
6. Assmusen
__________________
Every time you are tempted to react in the same old way, ask if you want to be a prisoner of the past or a pioneer of the future.
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07-19-2011, 08:46 AM
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#26
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Registered User
Join Date: Aug 2001
Location: Lehigh Valley, PA.
Posts: 7,464
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Bias
As someone mentioned, the track favored closers last year. Years ago it was one of the most inside speed favoring tracks in the sport but since Hayward took over as CEO and hired a different track maintenance man the inner track speed bias and Saratoga speed bias are gone. I think that trend will continue at Saratoga this year. This was a smart move by NYRA and Hayward because it makes for better racing and purer handicapping. Instead of trying to figure out whos going to get the lead, you have to find the best horse. Stalkers that can finish should win most of the races.
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07-19-2011, 11:11 AM
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#27
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Sunny Daytona Beach
Join Date: Mar 2008
Location: Daytona Beach
Posts: 2,302
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Linda Rice, I have been watching her train all spring at Oklahoma Track, my Lord that lady has some stock this year, and some of them looked fantastic, and with her bright lime green shirts she is easily spotted on the track in the morning. I know these may not all be big prices, but winners are winners, and some make great keys...
I miss that there are not any more seminars like there use to be, what a shame, it would be fun to go and enjoy a breakfast or so and get some great handicapping lessons to boot, and The Malta Diner is great place for it, as would be Siro's, but to my knowledge nothing is planned this year.
Patrick
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07-19-2011, 11:13 AM
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#28
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Registered User
Join Date: May 2010
Posts: 2,021
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Tape Reader
Yo, ernie simons.
Welcome back! I have learned so much from you about "early money." I won't repeat my redboards but: <ML at 10MTP >ML at PT .....I luv! Still learning!
Thank you,
Tape Reader
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I must say that I've been incorporating early money and watching the board more often when I'm physically at the track and this does play well at times. Not a bad angle for the tote watchers.
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07-19-2011, 11:18 AM
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#29
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2 outta 3 aint bad
Join Date: Sep 2003
Location: Lehigh Valley,PA.
Posts: 2,217
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Quote:
Originally Posted by pandy
As someone mentioned, the track favored closers last year. Years ago it was one of the most inside speed favoring tracks in the sport but since Hayward took over as CEO and hired a different track maintenance man the inner track speed bias and Saratoga speed bias are gone. I think that trend will continue at Saratoga this year. This was a smart move by NYRA and Hayward because it makes for better racing and purer handicapping. Instead of trying to figure out whos going to get the lead, you have to find the best horse. Stalkers that can finish should win most of the races.
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Last years exception to this being, 1 & 1/8 on the dirt.
32 races won by...19 on the frontend...7pressers...6closers
Post positions of winners at 1&1/8 on the dirt at the Spa 2010.
1...8
2...6
3...5
4...2
5...7
6...2
8...2
Last edited by KingChas; 07-19-2011 at 11:20 AM.
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07-19-2011, 12:24 PM
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#30
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2 outta 3 aint bad
Join Date: Sep 2003
Location: Lehigh Valley,PA.
Posts: 2,217
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Quote:
Originally Posted by KingChas
Last years exception to this being.
Post positions of winners at 1&1/8 on the dirt at the Spa 2010.
1...8
2...6
3...5
4...2
5...7
6...2
8...2
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Field sizes for 1 &1/8 on the dirt at the Spa 2010 = avg 6.5 horse field per race.
3...1
4...1
5...6
6...12
7...4
8...3
9...3
10..1
12..1
That skewers the pp winners somewhat.
But my point speed at 1 & 1/8 on the dirt did very well in 2010.
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