Aqu Inner -- Early Speed is now a Liability

[Track Collector]

After many years of favoring early speed the Aqu Inner track, early speed appears to not only not be an advantage, but a serious liability. Any ideas why this is so? Has there been a different track maintenance program or track composition change? Is is that drug enforcement is much tigher and horses which used to benefit from certain types of drugs are not able to excel without them?

[fiveouttasix]

Races 2 thru 5 today were won wire to wire.

[Bobzilla]

I definitely would not consider early prominence a liability on this year's Inner; however, the type of speed that is more commonly referred to as "cheap" would not appear to be holding on as long this year as it has in more recent years, particularly going two turns. There were at least ten gtw wins over this past week and a good number of winners who were within a length at the pace calls. GTW wins are still occuring but relative ability and conditioning is now a minumum requirement to see the trip through.

I've also noticed the final times becoming faster in recent weeks; many days in December the final times were slower than par. New Years Day the track had especially slow times.

My own interpretation from what I've observed this year is that the track has been, on most days, more even across. I've seen moves from off the pace where the momentum was gained in paths other than just the rail path. Indeed quality rail time, though still an obvious advantage as it is on most track configurations for obvious reasons, would not appear to be of the same urgency as in some of the more recent years. To what we attribute this change I'm not sure. There has been a change with the track superintendent and there are also new restrictions on certain types of shoes such as mud caulks that had been allowed before. Whatever the reason one thing is for sure, there have been fewer free rides for those who can successfully guess which cheap speed animal will get to the clubhouse turn first and then ride the conveyor belt to the winners circle. All in all I believe the track has been quite fair this meet and I think the crew has been doing a great job. Is it different from years past, sure, but trying to read it correctly and adjusting accordingly is fun. And most importantly the racing is on the safest main track surface of all, DIRT!!

On a somewhat seperate topic, anyone want to guess what BSF the Beyer people might assign to Taqarub in today's Jimmy Winkfield? Even with the somewhat lower variant I was working with today I still think his 1:09:26 will get him something well into the 90s. I love that part of the game.

[Tuffmug]

Steroids banned effective Jan 1

[samyn on the green]

Yeah I enjoy this meet as well. This year is different than past years especially in the two turn races. The long races have turned into a real stamina test, look for horses that have won at 9F in the mile and 70 yard races, they have been running better than expected. in the past the stretchout inside speed going two turns was a bread and butter play now it is a major liability. The stretchout types have been dead meat at the top of the lane. A few examples of stamina trumping all else is express to the west who had a 9F win in his form cycle and paid a $78 mutuel and the Pletcher filly Awesome Ashley the only 9F winner in a field of sprinters who paid $24. The turn two wire2wire winners have been few and far between.

Originally Posted by Bobzilla

I definitely would not consider early prominence a liability on this year's Inner; however, the type of speed that is more commonly referred to as "cheap" would not appear to be holding on as long this year as it has in more recent years, particularly going two turns. There were at least ten gtw wins over this past week and a good number of winners who were within a length at the pace calls. GTW wins are still occuring but relative ability and conditioning is now a minumum requirement to see the trip through.

[the little guy]

It's been a combination of more competitive racing than previous years and an even racetrack ( as opposed to the heavily biased surfaces of the past two winters ). The inner wasn't always the perceived inherently biased surface that many people seem to believe. The new super has done a great job of keeping the inner fair. We also have a more competitive jockey colony than the previous couple of years, with hungrier riders, who are riding very aggressively. Take a look at the paces in many two turn races. They certainly haven't been condusive, overall, to wire to wire winners.

We'll be on the inner for more than two more months. It will be interesting to see if the the racing can stay as competitive. Here's hoping.

[classhandicapper]

Generally, the surface has been unbiased, but IMO there was a short stretch of a few days recently where speed was not the typical advantage you would expect on any dirt surface, let alone the ID.

[JustRalph]

Originally Posted by classhandicapper

Generally, the surface has been unbiased, .

not according to my database, we can argue about what constitutes a bias.......but I show late runners way ahead on this course. Especially in Routes.

[the little guy]

Originally Posted by JustRalph

not according to my database, we can argue about what constitutes a bias.......but I show late runners way ahead on this course. Especially in Routes.

In my opinion, this is why it's most important to watch races. Plus, it isn't as though there have been an abundance of inexplicable results ( either speed or closer types ). The results have been fairly logical ( or explainable ) especially considering race dynamics.

The inner is especially interesting in NY as it is really the only surface that regularly has two turn dirt races at NYRA. If these races are contested fairly ( at least an honest pace ), on an even racetrack, there should be no advantage to speed horses. Only inherent speed favoring biases often found in dirt courses would produce different results. The results we have seen are races more fair for closers, and perhaps even unfair to speed because of dynamics, and without disecting the races this may make the track look to be favoring closers.

Look at the close third finisher in Sunday's 2nd race ( I forget his name ). He lost his two prior races going long by almost 100 combined lengths when embroiled in suicidal paces. Sunday he was pretty much the lone speed, set a moderate pace, and nearly won the race. Circumstance led to all the finishes.....not a bias of any kind. Intayaco in the 4th on Saturday was another modest example. Or look at wire to wire winner Jessica is Back earlier in the week. Compare her performance to other race shapes on the card. Dynamics....not bias.

[Tom]

I think there is far less bias than is assumed. Race bias, maybe, but track bias is over-hyped. That is good.

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by JustRalph

not according to my database, we can argue about what constitutes a bias.......but I show late runners way ahead on this course. Especially in Routes.

Try breaking it up a little. Look at the period from 1/8/2009 - 1/18/2009. IMO, the track played a little differenty in that period than it did before. I know that a few speed horses I liked underperformed during that time, but before that I wasn't having any problem.

[OTM Al]

I was of the opinion that the bias used to occur usually when the weather got below freezing for a couple days. Warm days and especially wet days generally played fair as I could see it. As last year was realatively warm, I pretty much threw it out. However, for this weekend those conditions had been met and yet it still wasn't happening. There are 3 possible reasons why the old bias isn't there anymore

1) New track maintenance techniques
2) Better horses on average
3) I was dead wrong on my initial assessment and something other than weather was the result.

Egotistically I would like to think some combination of 1 and 2. This meet is my favorite of the whole year (money wise) and it really feels something has changed and not so coincidently my picks have generally stunk. I know I'm working on readjusting how I play this track.

[JustRalph]

Good Stuff, I will break my database down by week and see what I get.........

TLG, good stuff,,,,,,,,, too!

I will look into some of those race shapes you mentioned

[aaron]

The inner this year has been an honest track. In my opinion the reason for this is the new track superintendent and the banning of mud caulks. The last 2 years, I felt the inner played to an inside bias, and eliminated all horses that were forced to run wide. I felt in the last 2 years you could close if you stayed inside. This year if you had the proper race dynamics it is possible to close going wide. I have seen a few days when I thought there might have been a speed bias or an inside bias,but this year these days are the exception,while the last 2 years they were the rule.

[jeebus1083]

The banning of mud caulks is a big factor, as they used to provide an additional edge in traction, much like adding snow tires to your car during winter. The car's handling and performance improve tenfold over conventional tires. A horse is no exception. Add a shoe that improves traction, and a horse's track handling and race performance will also improve. Horsemen in NY knew this, and guys like Contessa and Levine swore by it.

cees_with_dees was, and still is a big believer in "4-wheel drive" (caulks and bends), and made money with that angle for several years.