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Old 09-10-2023, 12:08 PM   #31
BELMONT 6-6-09
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Yeah that Jeff nothing but the facts kudos to you.
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Old 09-10-2023, 12:13 PM   #32
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Originally Posted by Running Amok View Post
Yesterday (9/7) in the last race at Kentucky Downs, I had two longshots I liked and bet them both to win. The 4 and the 12 were my longshot plays at odds of 37-1 and 67-1,respectively.

I also used both of them in my exactas with the horse I figured to be the key in hitting the board (and likely involved in the exacta), the 1 horse.

The exacta came in 1 - 4. I used the 1 as my key with 3 horses (4,10,12) in a $2 key box, and also had a $2 3-horse box (1,4,12). So it was a nice hit and I was pretty happy. But it would have paid a lot better if the 4 horse won and my win bet would have made it an amazing day.

But after the race I was I was looking at my wagers and asked myself why I never bet to place? I shun show betting but maybe betting to place needs to be considered because the 4 horse paid $22.38 to place and I only bet her to win.

So I just wanted to ask if anyone here bets to win AND place and what your thoughts are on if it's worth making place bets.
I will offer this, the 1/4 exacta paid $88.07 while the fair return (based on the win odds) was $151.38
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Old 09-13-2023, 02:49 PM   #33
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Originally Posted by BELMONT 6-6-09 View Post
This topic has been discussed in the past and the bottom line win only wagering will out perform win/place wagering over the long term based on numerous studies.

As a matter of fact the higher you go in odds the least profitable the win/place wagering becomes.
THIS!!!

I've bet 50%/50% W/P on odds of 5/1>= and 65%/35% W/P on odds of 6/1<= for DECADES, until about 18 months ago, as the comfort of the place bet in comparison to what I was leaving on the table was no longer very comforting. And like the poster above said, the higher the odds, well, it became down right uncomfortable.

You'll leave place rewards on the table, but the win rewards will dwarf them.
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Old 09-13-2023, 03:02 PM   #34
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Originally Posted by BELMONT 6-6-09 View Post
The win place bet is a matter of reinforcement as consistently backing up a horse at odds greater then even money never produces a profit in the long term. When you bet a horse to win and then make a place bet as "insurance", you are not insuring anything! You are betting in an effort not to lose.

Most recreational bettors wager win/place to feel less of a sting when their horse runs second. At odds below 3/2 a place only bet can be a choice as the payouts are not significantly different from the win price. This is not for me, however, this technique has been used by some very selective players to gain a percentage advantage and a measure of safety.

The longer losing runs associated with the win only bet does test the fortitude of most players and that is the reason for the hedging. This is a fact!
THIS TOO!!!

I've actually lived this for a great majority of my handicapping life.

Bet it to win.
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Old 09-13-2023, 03:12 PM   #35
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Originally Posted by thaskalos View Post
Yes...to feel good about cashing a ticket when your longshot finishes second in the race. "Feeling good" is important to our psychological makeup...and psychology plays a huge role in gambling. Some people need added enhancements in order to keep them psychologically strong...and this doesn't necessarily make them "long term losers". I know a horseplayer for many years, and he bets only to place...and he wins! I have suggested to him that he might make more money overall if he bet only to win...but he tells me that he sleeps better this way. Sound sleep is also very important in this game...
Yes, yes, yes. There might come a time though, after seeing rewards left behind, when the hide must get toughened, and the confidence be tested.
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Old 09-13-2023, 03:59 PM   #36
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Originally Posted by ultracapper View Post
THIS!!!

I've bet 50%/50% W/P on odds of 5/1>= and 65%/35% W/P on odds of 6/1<= for DECADES, until about 18 months ago, as the comfort of the place bet in comparison to what I was leaving on the table was no longer very comforting. And like the poster above said, the higher the odds, well, it became down right uncomfortable.

You'll leave place rewards on the table, but the win rewards will dwarf them.

I agree!!!
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Old 09-19-2023, 09:47 AM   #37
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In Australia betting for the place is for 1st 2nd and 3rd in fields of 8 or more.

Numerous figures I have kept over the years clearly shows win only stands out. Betting 1 win 4 place or any other variations is the same as two seperate bets at flat stakes of 1 unit and 4 units.

I know your place is for 2nd only and the dividends will be proportionally different compared to OZ but anyone here who can win on place betting would star on win bets long term.

Just passing: good luck to you all
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Old 09-19-2023, 12:13 PM   #38
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Originally Posted by romankoz View Post
In Australia betting for the place is for 1st 2nd and 3rd in fields of 8 or more.

Numerous figures I have kept over the years clearly shows win only stands out. Betting 1 win 4 place or any other variations is the same as two seperate bets at flat stakes of 1 unit and 4 units.

I know your place is for 2nd only and the dividends will be proportionally different compared to OZ but anyone here who can win on place betting would star on win bets long term.

Just passing: good luck to you all
There are exceptions to every rule as Tom (the top poster on this forum) makes more profit bet Win/Place in a 1-3 ratio at odds of 9/2 and higher and has done this for years.
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Old 09-20-2023, 10:32 AM   #39
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There are exceptions to every rule as Tom (the top poster on this forum) makes more profit bet Win/Place in a 1-3 ratio at odds of 9/2 and higher and has done this for years.

RKOZ replies: Most def would be the exception but for the majority who do not have his skills win only would be better.
I suspect Tom would be extremely disciplined with the races he bets in and the betting structure of the odds in a race. Perhaps, and I am only surmising, he does best in races where the chalk horse might be a fair bit unders as well as suspect to win. A sort of double barelled poor fav on two factors rather than just one. Then he also has to receive overs on his price assessment for the place as well.
It's a fascinating game of percentages.
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Old 09-20-2023, 10:53 AM   #40
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Originally Posted by romankoz View Post
There are exceptions to every rule as Tom (the top poster on this forum) makes more profit bet Win/Place in a 1-3 ratio at odds of 9/2 and higher and has done this for years.

RKOZ replies: Most def would be the exception but for the majority who do not have his skills win only would be better.
I suspect Tom would be extremely disciplined with the races he bets in and the betting structure of the odds in a race. Perhaps, and I am only surmising, he does best in races where the chalk horse might be a fair bit unders as well as suspect to win. A sort of double barelled poor fav on two factors rather than just one. Then he also has to receive overs on his price assessment for the place as well.
It's a fascinating game of percentages.
Players who beat the game for significant money are a class unto themselves. One of the best players I ever knew bet place parlays and made many win/place bets because he knew his horses would run, based on trips and just a feel for the game that the average does not have. He was able to tell when cold trainers were turning the corner, which enabled to get in at the start of streaks, not after the trainer had gone 8-10 and everyone was on the band wagon. Great players have a certain feel. I can't explain it, but I have seen it in real time.
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