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Old 08-17-2023, 10:38 AM   #76
HorsemenHeist
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It's a false narrative on Twitter. The Takeout was lowered on non-carryover days. I guess we should have left it higher all the time. Or maybe we should go back to having a Jackpot.

It's truly amazing.
Yup, higher takeout all the time or a jackpot are the only other options that can be done for the bettors
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Old 08-17-2023, 11:12 AM   #77
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Yup, higher takeout all the time or a jackpot are the only other options that can be done for the bettors
That's a Non sequitur. But, since you asked, I'm comfortable that I have done a lot for bettors but will continue to do as much as I can.
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Old 08-17-2023, 11:19 AM   #78
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It's a false narrative on Twitter. The Takeout was lowered on non-carryover days. I guess we should have left it higher all the time. Or maybe we should go back to having a Jackpot.

It's truly amazing.
somewhat agree

It is a blessing to have the lowered takeout on non-carryover days.

Horse Racing Twitter does present a false narrative.

Twitter guys in these situations...
these guys are connoisseurs of rabble rousing.

Even if it was 15% in every situation, they'd find another branch to swing to. Views... Comments...Drama... thinking it's cool to be an 'influencer', exploiting the crowd's credulity.


regardless, it should not be a situation where value takes you to the Pick 6, -and then when it has potential to be special in the event that it is a big Carryover,
- that value becomes a tradeoff situation, because of the takeout being sixty percent higher.
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Last edited by Robert Fischer; 08-17-2023 at 11:22 AM. Reason: prefer not to say
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Old 08-17-2023, 11:28 AM   #79
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The concept surrounding the Rainbow pools is a successful concept in that it attracts bettors to a big score. What drives bettors away from it is the rule that you have to hit it alone. The fix is that the rule should not be hitting it alone, but having to pick the place horse or the place and show horses in the final race to take the entire pot. This, at least in the bettors' minds reduces the element of pure luck or the ability to massively spread bet. It further rewards successful handicapping. Huge carryovers can still be accomplished and it would be very profitable for operators.
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Old 08-17-2023, 11:51 AM   #80
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The concept surrounding the Rainbow pools is a successful concept in that it attracts bettors to a big score. What drives bettors away from it is the rule that you have to hit it alone. The fix is that the rule should not be hitting it alone, but having to pick the place horse or the place and show horses in the final race to take the entire pot. This, at least in the bettors' minds reduces the element of pure luck or the ability to massively spread bet. It further rewards successful handicapping. Huge carryovers can still be accomplished and it would be very profitable for operators.
It dramatically increases takeout and then builds a false "carryover" notion, which when given away is fed to CAW players, despite it being built on the back of small bettors. It's a horrible bet that has damaged day to day players immeasurably.
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Old 08-17-2023, 11:51 AM   #81
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two more races off the Turf today

nothing to see here
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Old 08-17-2023, 11:53 AM   #82
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learn from the Casinos

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It dramatically increases takeout and then builds a false "carryover" notion, which when given away is fed to CAW players, despite it being built on the back of small bettors. It's a horrible bet that has damaged day to day players immeasurably.
why not ban certain players from participating?

Casinos do it all the time with card counters

I understand it wouldn't be easy or viable, but maybe worth it to make CAW lives more difficult - or get NYS to pass a law that taxes/fines certain wagerers if they are found to practice a certain way
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Old 08-17-2023, 12:25 PM   #83
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The takeout is the takeout.

The problem with rainbows is that they are like the lottery in that it's extremely difficult to hit, but in this case, when it does get hit, it's very likely to be hit by a CRW and not by some average guy that purchased his lottery ticket at a neighborhood store.

IMO, in general, these large horizontal bets (even with an attractive take) are a probably not the best idea for "most" fans. IMO, the goal should be to keep a lot of the smaller players active and interested. If a smaller player goes on a long losing streak (and he will playing long Pic Xs) because the money he is losing on the tough horizonal bets more than offsets the occasional winning days he would have had playing Win/Exactas/Doubles, he is going to get discouraged and may quit. I'm not so sure it's such a good idea to have a handful of guys that made a score along with a ton of big losers.
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Old 08-17-2023, 12:27 PM   #84
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why not ban certain players from participating?

Casinos do it all the time with card counters
The casinos actually lose money to the card counters.

The racetracks don't lose money to the CRWs. They make money. It's the rest of us that are having a tougher time.
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Old 08-17-2023, 12:40 PM   #85
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indirectly

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The casinos actually lose money to the card counters.

The racetracks don't lose money to the CRWs. They make money. It's the rest of us that are having a tougher time.
longer term if CRWs hurt overall handle, then they are affecting the long term viability of the sport, so it is in their interest to quash it, somehow
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Old 08-17-2023, 12:52 PM   #86
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I believe Caw is excluded from the pick 6 pools at Nyra. Not sure how that is enforced, but assuming it is, I would imagine that even if they back door into the pool, they will not get the big rebates that are a huge part of their edge.

Regarding raising the takeout to 24%, I don't necessarily agree with it, but using yesterdays numbers as an example it is still a pretty good deal for players. Yesterday the pool was 757,440. So $68,169.60 is the amount they took in the extra takeout. The carryover was $179,736. So rather than obsess over the fact that the takeout is 24%, understand that the players still got a carryover of $111,566 if the takeout had remained 15%. That is a darn good deal on a large pool, a lot of tourist money and supposedly sans caw.

Just looking at the core numbers. The pool was 757,440 at a 24% takeout. That is a $181,785.60 with a carryover of 179,736. That is about as close to zero percent takeout as you can get. Given that Caw is supposedly not involved makes it about as good of a bet in 2023 as you are going to find. I am not sure but I don't even think the huge rainbow six mandatory payouts have a takeout that low when all is said (I think the takeout typically exceeds the carryover on them) and done and those pools are caw infested.
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Old 08-17-2023, 01:13 PM   #87
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One 9 horse field 2, 8 horse fields and the rest are all less than that. Someone please tell me again how this not a poor meet so far in terms of field size and races getting scraped off the turf.

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Old 08-17-2023, 01:43 PM   #88
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POOR MEET-STRONG MEET

If you measure the meet in the short-run by total handle for example, then you argue that point that it was successful.

If you take the longer-term view which I do:

NYRA is poorly run as a quasi-governmental entity that is not unusual in the public private partnerships scenario which is often the case.

Saratoga is the key to it all, and the value of the Aqueduct on a land basis alone might have consolidated things years ago by a sale of it, but the Resorts came about further amplifying too much infrastructure for a declining gaming-related business that is probably less than 1 percent of total gambling in the US as they define it at the AGA or various other entities.

Add to that the new sinkhole of money by New York State at Belmont,and start running discounted cash flow on all of this and it is a long run disaster.

Certainly the Kentucky market is the true cradle of horse racing, not NY. CDI is criticized but they see it for what it is.

They probably know what they are doing more than NYRA at all levels. The bottom line short term makes you pay in the long run. Saratoga is too long and should have stayed a boutique meeting and moreover, allowing anyone with 10 bucks to clog up the lower club is not a good strategy among other mistakes to gain revenue.
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Old 08-17-2023, 02:58 PM   #89
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I proposed a change to Rainbow rules to attract small bettors to large pots. And to create rules that are not so favorable to the CAW players.
You've reframed the problems and I wouldn't argue them, but let's find a way to climb out of the hole now.
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Old 08-17-2023, 03:45 PM   #90
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RULES THAT ARE EXCLUDING PEOPLE WHO WORK HARD

The biggest gimmick bet in all of racing the rainbow bet is pretty well known. You have to live with it or eliminate it and cannot start toying around with these can participate and these cannot participate. The same holds for what they are doing at Del Mar when you read Patrick Cummings work on the late money and CAWs. It is getting way to complex. The reality is those who put in the time and effort and understand rebates, CAW etc. are making a time and money investment and there are no guarantees. If people do not like it, move on to something else. The same holds true for my earlier points are Saratoga, a very grossly overrated and overpriced experience that leads to short term economic gains for the town yet when the tourist dollar leaves, the streets still have problems that the community has to deal with. Read their local papers. They ruined a great place pretty quickly.
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