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Old 01-25-2022, 01:29 AM   #16
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A LOOK TO THE FUTURE.
THE EXPECTED WIN BET WINNERS FAR EXCEED THE ACTUAL WINNERS.
IT SHOULD LAST SO LONG

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Old 01-25-2022, 01:47 AM   #17
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CORRECTION

Quote:
Originally Posted by formula_2002 View Post
A LOOK TO THE FUTURE.
THE ACTUAL WIN BET WINNERS FAR EXCEED THE EXPECTED WINNERS.
IT SHOULD LAST SO LONG
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Old 01-25-2022, 05:04 AM   #18
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Quote:
Originally Posted by formula_2002 View Post
THE EXPECTED WIN BET WINNERS FAR EXCEED THE ACTUAL WINNERS.

I'm sorry, I'm not trying to be critical or mean

but your words lack clarity

I have absolutely no idea what that means


.
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Old 01-25-2022, 09:57 AM   #19
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Half Smoke View Post
I'm sorry, I'm not trying to be critical or mean

but your words lack clarity

I have absolutely no idea what that means


.
requesting a clarification is never critical

First see the correction I made. the correction reads
"A LOOK TO THE FUTURE.
THE ACTUAL WIN BET WINNERS FAR EXCEED THE EXPECTED WINNERS.
IT SHOULD LAST SO LONG"

the 2nd column sums the actual number of winners. 7 wins for both tables

the 6th column is headed "% WIN POOL PLAYED"
that represents the sum of the expected win probability for all the selected horses.
in the 1st table it all sums to 5.438, the 2nd table 5.147. they are the expected number of winners

the actual win bet winners 7 and 7exceed the expected number of winners 5.438 and 5.147
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Old 01-26-2022, 02:07 PM   #20
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RESULTS FOR 88 WIN BETS,APPROACHING NORMALCY AFTER 88 RACES

ACTUAL WIN/EXPECTED WIN = 105%

RETURNED DOLLARS/ BET DOLLARS = 93%

NORMALIZED RETURN (WHERE TOTAL BET ON EACH RACE SUMS TO 100%)=94%

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Old 01-31-2022, 01:37 AM   #21
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bottom line steady win bet returns.
my win bet sizes returned $0.96 on the dollar
a flat bet on the same horses returned but $0.77 on the dollar

most plays are on the top three public picks

47 profitable win bet in 79 races, that's a win race of 53

I may be able to improve the win bet returns by deleted the 3rd choice. so far, they are not producing.

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Old 01-31-2022, 02:13 PM   #22
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a winning play.. more often than not!!
my $1 normalized exacta returned $1.30 for a $ $1 bet
my normalized win bet returned $1.70 for a $1 bet

I played 73% of the win pool. A min $1 return was only $1.38

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Old 01-31-2022, 10:03 PM   #23
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here are the results for the complete card!!
my $1 normalized exacta returned $0.76 for a $ $1 bet

my normalized win bet sizes returned $0.98 for a $1 bet at a win rate of 50%

while a flat bet on all 23 horses I played returned $0.37 on the $1.

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Old 08-30-2023, 12:29 AM   #24
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exacta play. current results

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Old 09-02-2023, 12:42 AM   #25
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exacta results. 200 races

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Old 09-07-2023, 07:29 PM   #26
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299 OUT OF SAMPLE RACE STUDY. LOOKING GOOD LOUIS

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Old 09-09-2023, 12:43 PM   #27
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UNSEGMENTED PLAY CHART. 343 RACES $1 RETURN OF $1.02.

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Old 09-09-2023, 06:04 PM   #28
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One dimension is missing but will be incorporated, that is, a/e. Actual exacta payout / expected payout, where the expected payout is calculated using the win pool odds.
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Old 09-09-2023, 11:43 PM   #29
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386 SEGMENTED RACES INDICATING AREAS OF PROFTIT OR LOSS

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Old 09-12-2023, 12:46 AM   #30
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439 races.

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