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Old 04-29-2020, 06:02 PM   #1
CheckMark
 
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3 Year Best Times 2017-2020

I received today a 3 Year Best Times chart from 2017 till this year (2020)

The tracks covered are:
Albuquerque
Aqueduct
Arapahoe Park
Arizona Downs
Arlington
Assiniboia Downs
Belmont Park
Belterra Park
Canterbury Park
Century Downs
Century Mile
Charles Town
Churchill Downs
Colonial Downs
Columbus Downs
Columbus
Del Mar
Delaware Park
Delta Downs
Ellis Park
Emerald Downs
Evangeline Downs
Fair Grounds
Fair Meadows Tulsa
Fairmount Park
Finger Lakes
Fonner Park
Fort Erie
Fresno
Golden Gate
Gulfstream Park AND West
Hastings
Hawthorne
Hazel Park
Horsemen's Park
Indiana Grand
Keeneland
Kentucky Downs
Laurel Park
Lone Star
Los Alamitos
Louisiana Downs
Mahoning Valley
Meadowlands
Monmouth Park
Mountaineer
Northlands Park
Oaklawn Park
Ocala Training Centre
Parx
Penn National
Pimlico
Pleasanton
Portland meadows
Presque Isle
Remington Park
Retama Park
Ruidoso Downs
Sacramento
Sam Houston
Santa Anita
Santa Rosa
Saratoga
Suffolk Downs
Sunland Park
Tampa Bay
Thisledown
Timonium
Turf Paradise
Turfway Park
Will Rogers
Woodbine
Zia Park

Sorry probably all the tracks are on there but just wanted to type out each one so I didn't miss one! Some of the data is not there (my guy never answered me back yet about that) but anyways my question is how do you convert these times into a speed figure? Either an explanation on how to do it to convert a time into a figure or just something on that line would be awesome since I would like to use these for future use! Thanks to all who reply!

Here is the link to the file: 3yearbesttimes2020.xlsx

Thank you!
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Old 04-29-2020, 06:07 PM   #2
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DRF has pars but need the time rather than just the straight up par
Am I wasting my time? Or is this something that I should work with?

40228531-0-MTH-2019BeyerParsAA-.pdf
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Old 04-29-2020, 06:08 PM   #3
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...but anyways my question is how do you convert these times into a speed figure? Either an explanation on how to do it to convert a time into a figure or just something on that line would be awesome since I would like to use these for future use! Thanks to all who reply!


Thank you!
https://www.amazon.com/Picking-Winne.../dp/0395701325

Seriously, no way to answer that really in a single post.

Quick and dirty version...

1) Establish a baseline, i.e. 1:10 at 6f = 100
2) Establish a value for time. How much is a second worth? It should vary by distance.

If I say for the above 1 second = 14 points, the conversion to a figure is easy. Example, time of 1:12.50

Figure = 100 - (72.5 - 70) x 14 = 65

Last edited by cj; 04-29-2020 at 06:11 PM.
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Old 04-29-2020, 07:35 PM   #4
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Quote:
Originally Posted by cj View Post
https://www.amazon.com/Picking-Winne.../dp/0395701325

Seriously, no way to answer that really in a single post.

Quick and dirty version...

1) Establish a baseline, i.e. 1:10 at 6f = 100
2) Establish a value for time. How much is a second worth? It should vary by distance.

If I say for the above 1 second = 14 points, the conversion to a figure is easy. Example, time of 1:12.50

Figure = 100 - (72.5 - 70) x 14 = 65
Ok I will work with this and looking at the copy of the book right now

Thanks!
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Old 04-30-2020, 06:30 AM   #5
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you have the standards in that xlsx file.


as cj says just make the par = 100
for example.....
Monmouth Park 6F Main 108.2

so if 108.2 is in reality 68.40 seconds (as in hundreths) then 68.4 = 100

in your pdf you may have a class type that is a Beyer 62

that 62 is in fact nothing but a percentage figure.
to transfer it........62 / 10 + 90 = 96.2
thus if 100= 68.4 then 62 = 68.4/96.2*100 = 71.1 sec


if the Beyer is an 80 then that is 80/10+90=98%
so 68.4/98*100=69.8


simple even if time consuming.



in other words all beyers are, is percentage figures.
the reality is you don't need charts at all.
one simple formula WILL cover it all

if the pars in that xlsx are accurate, and if the beyer classes in the pdf are accurate is another issue
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Old 04-30-2020, 07:13 AM   #6
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and to reverse it....




if 68.4 = 100 then what does 71.1 equal on the beyer scale


(68.4 / 71.1 - .9 ) * 1000 = 62




you can do same with any 2 beyer times if wish.


page 96 of The Winning HorsePlayer...


6f in 70.40(2/5ths) at Santa Anita gets 100 on his scale
72 seconds gets 78



(70.4/72-.9) *1000 = 77.777


74 seconds = 51


(70.4/74-.9)*1000 = 51.4
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Old 04-30-2020, 02:01 PM   #7
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Thanks for the help guys.

I did find this in my travels online yesterday, but not sure if it is totally accurate?

http://www.angelfire.com/la2/Louisia...artsBeyer.html

There is also 1 and 2 turn speed figure configurations:

1 Turn
http://www.angelfire.com/la2/Louisia...edratings.html

2 Turn
http://www.angelfire.com/la2/Louisia...edRatings.html

and finally there is a beaten length adjustment chart:
http://www.angelfire.com/la2/Louisia...engthsAdj.html

I would appreciate it if someone can see if this is accurate? For example, a winner going 1 mile and finishing that race in 1:35 2/5, and that figure comes out to be (according to the chart) 118. What would I have to subtract from that rating? I feel like that is a huge figure since I did look back at the charts of a winner at Monmouth who ran that time, and that race was 1 Mile Alw $45k? Thank you!
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Last edited by CheckMark; 04-30-2020 at 02:06 PM.
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Old 04-30-2020, 02:21 PM   #8
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Originally Posted by CheckMark View Post
Thanks for the help guys.

I did find this in my travels online yesterday, but not sure if it is totally accurate?

http://www.angelfire.com/la2/Louisia...artsBeyer.html

There is also 1 and 2 turn speed figure configurations:

1 Turn
http://www.angelfire.com/la2/Louisia...edratings.html

2 Turn
http://www.angelfire.com/la2/Louisia...edRatings.html

and finally there is a beaten length adjustment chart:
http://www.angelfire.com/la2/Louisia...engthsAdj.html

I would appreciate it if someone can see if this is accurate? For example, a winner going 1 mile and finishing that race in 1:35 2/5, and that figure comes out to be (according to the chart) 118. What would I have to subtract from that rating? I feel like that is a huge figure since I did look back at the charts of a winner at Monmouth who ran that time, and that race was 1 Mile Alw $45k? Thank you!
If you look at what SteveB posted, you don't need the charts at all. His equation IS the charts.
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Old 05-01-2020, 07:27 PM   #9
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The beaten lengths have changed slightly.
and they are different for dirt/turf/artf.

I will post what I have come with this weekend.
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Old 05-01-2020, 08:00 PM   #10
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The beaten lengths have changed slightly.
and they are different for dirt/turf/artf.

I will post what I have come with this weekend.



what i wrote is ok for winners, any surface

but not for beaten horses.
probably should have mentioned that.
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Old 05-01-2020, 08:09 PM   #11
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what i wrote is ok for winners, any surface

but not for beaten horses.
probably should have mentioned that.
Thanks!
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Old 05-01-2020, 09:39 PM   #12
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The beaten lengths have changed slightly.
and they are different for dirt/turf/artf.

I will post what I have come with this weekend.
Do you think I can still use the speed figures (links) that I posted? Would really like to still use them and see how they go since they seem like a easy way to make figures.

If you can personally help me Tom, that would be awesome!
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Old 05-02-2020, 03:42 PM   #13
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Do you think I can still use the speed figures (links) that I posted? Would really like to still use them and see how they go since they seem like a easy way to make figures.

If you can personally help me Tom, that would be awesome!
I use those link myself, for the speed figs, they are fine, but understand, some tracks will have a different values for a certain distance, like Aqu, at 6.5 f, I think it is like 6 pts off, but I would have to check.

Here is the latest I have for BL, but it was last update in July 2019.
I update every year, so it is almost time - I will try to get to it soon, as long as someone is interested. As more tracks open it will easier to do - I need PPS to do it.

A few distances have several values for a BL - this is because DRF PPs had a lot of really out of wack BL values. Bit it is close enough for government work.

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Old 05-02-2020, 05:10 PM   #14
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Three year best times aren't a reliable baseline. What you will need to know are equivalent times at each track and distance. To get those you can adjust every time to a specific claiming class level and then take the medians of those. By doing that you will have speed charts for every track. Your charts will have avg run-up accounted for as well as any anomalies due to track geometry.

Working from memory here, the old standard was 10k open claiming. On the Beyer scale 10k open was an 85 so if you adjust every time to 10k open then you know what an 85 is everywhere. Beyer simplifies it in the Winning Horseplayer by providing baseline charts for 1-turn 2-turn everywhere and then you just have to find the 2-turn adjustment at each track and roll with that, but simplification is costing some accuracy there because if you don't go through the hardship above you're missing out on any distance to distance anomalies.

Beyer has his scale, you can scale yours tighter if you want, I believe his scale up and down from the 85 would be 1000 divided by number of fifths. So for example if you have 10k open at 1:12.8 that's 364 fifths 1000/364 is 2.74 points per fifth, a 1:13.8 would be 85-13.7 = 71. Beaten lengths were pretty much 90% of points per fifth, that only changed later when he started using a different standard for Turf, was it 6.5 or 7 furlong Beaten lengths on turf? Something like that. Ignores the fact that beaten lengths represent time so the fifths on the chart also being time no longer synch up, but that's where things start to unravel with proportional time, you either leave well enough alone at that point or you start down the long road.
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Old 05-02-2020, 08:08 PM   #15
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Good point.
The Beyer speed charts have nothing to do with the 3yr best times. 3yr best go with the DRF SR+TV numbers, not the Beyer's.
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