Sierra Leone

[PalaceOfFortLarned]

I'm struggling with this one.

He has yet to run a fast race, but is still rolling late and with what looks to be little effort passing everybody.

I look at who he has beat, and I know he is a quality horse.

I still can't get past the times of races he has ran. He has NEVER ran fast.

Tremendous talent. Will he finally run fast to win it all in the Kentucky Derby?

[classhandicapper]

I think he's been in some of the better quality preps (which may not be saying a lot). He's been such a deep closer, I'd be more concerned about his early position in a large field and the pace than whether he's fast enough. Other than Fierceness and Nysos no one has been a lot faster. Nysos is out and with Fierceness it depends on your view of his last two trips and ability to put big races together.

[MJC922]

FWIW I had the Remsen come up as a 7 for him and he's still working his way back to it with a 9 in the Bluegrass. Is a 7 fast? Well for me par for the Derby is between a 5 and 6 and these are developing horses so they're working towards that peak in May. Rich Strike had never done better than a 10.75 in his final prep then freaked and ran a 5.25 in the Derby. It's just going to come down to pace IMO and if he keeps moving back towards that 7.

I think where I differ with most is I have Fierceness two best races as 6's which is pretty much just Grade one par, nothing wrong with Grade one par I mean that's great but I think some others have the Florida Derby as off the charts... so when I see a horse that has a 7 like Sierra Leone and he's working his way back to it as expected then I'm not too worried about it. With that being said Sierra Leone if he only shows up with the Bluegrass 9 in the Derby then he most likely won't even run second.

IMO Epic Ride if he can get in can keep the pace honest for Sierra Leone. Not sure what his points look like.

[Parkview_Pirate]

Originally Posted by PalaceOfFortLarned

...I still can't get past the times of races he has ran. He has NEVER ran fast....

What's the old saying? "Time only counts when you're in jail".

If he was a speed horse and never run a fast race, it would be more of a concern. But a deep closer likes to settle near the back, and so the final time and speed figure he gets is mainly dependent on the talent of the front runners.
- since they are not being passed until late.

He looks like the key to the race, but of course has a much bigger risk with trip in a 20 horse field.

Handicapping the Derby is a different kettle of fish than the Breeder's Cup later in the year, after more starts allow form and class easier to gauge. IMHO, it comes down to guessing which horse is poised for a major move forward as a lightly raced 3YO. Sierra Leone could easily be sitting a on Triple Digit Beyer and lifetime best, but will it be good enough?

[wiretowire68]

As I have started my handicapper prepping yesterday as I go over Bris first, then will use DRF and finally wait for Valuecapper to shoot out the contention lines and the ARC. I always evaluate horses with the so called regression vs their competition in terms of two features (Speed Only 1st.) So far as far my data sets...because 3 Year Olds in this race will either run their highest Figures or they will regress base on the amount of starts and the stretch outs to the 1 1/4 bumper car ride.

So first off, So..My +- negative figures for me..show horses with the lower speed figures need to make a huge jump to run up to the averages based on what they have ran. So, as I look horses who run a lower + improve or a slightly - decline tend to be the horses that can take that step up into improving in a race. Again, we are only talking a speed figure. So far 2-3 horses fit my model early.. "The obvious is Just a Touch" and then Mystik Dan. You can also throw in Domestic Product, Honor Marie, and believe it or not Society Man.

That is just a start, post position...track condition, and then positioning and all that dirt being kicked up.
I agree Sierra Leone times are slow and will need a pace to run at but this is 20 horses and traffic. 3 Trips in a row at dead closing running style or not and the extra distance, I am not sure whether he makes it this time. It is those clear that final pole with room to run and rolling. Post and comfort on that backstretch...I laugh here when people talk about Fierceness on the front end here and nobody will go...These trainers know that their horse does not stand a chance and their strategy will be to run as hard as they can to the second call...to 44 in change because they need to clear and settle and not get caught wide .... so the people on here that constantly spit out that no horse can go with Fierceness and force him to tire is ridiculous. Sure he can win..but no way is it cut and dry. Sierra Leone will be charging late, but will it be too late will after 3 times dead closing.

[Aerocraft67]

Seems reasonable to project a substantial speed improvement given all the other things to like.

[Bustin Stones]

Because the Derby is a huge field, I cannot think pace will be a concern. So many entries will be fighting to stay close to avoid traffic problems late. It's more likely Leone will suffer from traffic than a slower pace. There may be another closer that sees luck.

[wiretowire68]

I should have said, it would be more about tiring horses for him to close into and the horses who are maintaining in the stretch. Churchill Stretch is long.. As always, look forward to that day... two best days in sports as far as I am concerned.. BC and Derby Day..and the payouts are always good.

[Robert Fischer]

Close the beach
He's a beast

Pray that trip and pace and flow 🙏 ...
Allow an underneath-key and/or a multi toss/vs.

[f2tornado]

I'm still torn on this one. I get shades of Tapit Trice will this guy. He's got the breeding but the figures don't match the eyes (and TT fit both). The raw time on his final 1/8th would have actually lost several lengths to horses in other big preps. I do envision him sitting a little closer which would help. I have little doubt he's going to pass plenty of horses but I'm skeptical he's got a true rocket that will propel him to the winner's circle, barring an epic collapse up front. We shall see. Post position could also be a factor for him more than most. I'd fear a inside draw. As of now, I'll plan on using him defensively on top.

[denniswilliams]

Originally Posted by MJC922

FWIW I had the Remsen come up as a 7 for him and he's still working his way back to it with a 9 in the Bluegrass. Is a 7 fast? Well for me par for the Derby is between a 5 and 6 and these are developing horses so they're working towards that peak in May. Rich Strike had never done better than a 10.75 in his final prep then freaked and ran a 5.25 in the Derby. It's just going to come down to pace IMO and if he keeps moving back towards that 7.

I think where I differ with most is I have Fierceness two best races as 6's which is pretty much just Grade one par, nothing wrong with Grade one par I mean that's great but I think some others have the Florida Derby as off the charts... so when I see a horse that has a 7 like Sierra Leone and he's working his way back to it as expected then I'm not too worried about it. With that being said Sierra Leone if he only shows up with the Bluegrass 9 in the Derby then he most likely won't even run second.

IMO Epic Ride if he can get in can keep the pace honest for Sierra Leone. Not sure what his points look like.

Charted Equibase GPS data for the Bluegrass, Florida Derby, Arkansas Derby, and Remsen. Used the 'Whole Furlong' option, so 9 calls for the 9F.

Did the Bluegrass 1st, and was 'shocked' how good that race was: speed held and SL got no help at all. (The other closer that moved before SL backed up the final furlong.) HUGE effort!

Then the FL Derby: the field stayed with F for all of 6 furlongs, then went straight up (back).

Remsen: 'looks' even more impressive than the Bluegrass but it's really not, as: the track was off; 2 other horses from the rear 'escorted' him and ran 3rd and 4th; the rest of the field, other than the winner, backed up after 7 furlongs.

SL gets more distance and has shown he can win off the pace without help. Unless Fierceless turns out to be the 2nd coming of Seattle Slew, doubtful SL gets beat.

[bisket]

The field went the last 3 furlongs in 39.25 seconds. Just a Touch went the last 3 furlongs in in 39.31 seconds. While Sierra Leone went the last 3 furlongs in 38.01. Leone only traveled 8 more feet than Just a Touch. All of this is from Equibase GPS charts. So essentially Leone only picked up 6 lengths on the field. Another thing I like to look at with 3 year olds to get an idea of their ability is to look at how they fare against the variant. Fast 3 year old usually get clost to the variant for that day or beat it. Leone beat the variant marginally in the Bluegrass and his maiden race days. The Risen Star he was he was more than a second slower than the variant and Remsen he was about 1/2 second slower. He's not really grade 1 quality. I bet Just a Touch in the Bluegrass. After watching that race I'm off him.

[MJC922]

Originally Posted by denniswilliams

Charted Equibase GPS data for the Bluegrass, Florida Derby, Arkansas Derby, and Remsen. Used the 'Whole Furlong' option, so 9 calls for the 9F.

Did the Bluegrass 1st, and was 'shocked' how good that race was: speed held and SL got no help at all. (The other closer that moved before SL backed up the final furlong.) HUGE effort!

Then the FL Derby: the field stayed with F for all of 6 furlongs, then went straight up (back).

Remsen: 'looks' even more impressive than the Bluegrass but it's really not, as: the track was off; 2 other horses from the rear 'escorted' him and ran 3rd and 4th; the rest of the field, other than the winner, backed up after 7 furlongs.

SL gets more distance and has shown he can win off the pace without help. Unless Fierceless turns out to be the 2nd coming of Seattle Slew, doubtful SL gets beat.

Visually I disagree that he got no help because going to the 3/8ths when Just a Touch went to a full drive due to Epic Ride moving forward that was about 5 seconds before he (rider of Just a Touch) probably ideally wanted to. In fact Epic Ride was widest of the speed and moving forward on both turns. So if he's at or near the front in the Derby that's going to be a problem for someone because mid-turn is far from the wire at Churchill, any early moves can take a toll at the 1/8 pole. That was why I loved Sierra Leone in the Bluegrass because of Epic Ride's presence, I can love him again in the Derby for the same reasons. As for speed holding, I get where you're coming from although sometimes it's an honest pace and the speed stays around because they're just better than the rest. The notion that this Bluegrass should be an upgrade to the winner on race flow because speed and speed were 2nd and 3rd, I don't know about that. Remove Epic Ride and that turn move and it might've been a photo for the win IMO.

[classhandicapper]

The Remsen was on a heavily inside speed biased track. Dornoch was the inside most speed horse. He put away the disadvantaged outside chasers in a fast pace. IMO, that makes it one of those fuzzy trips where Dornoch was used hard early but on the best part of the track and Sierra Leone got a good pace setup but was against the track a bit being outside. I don't bet chalk very often, but I played Sierra Leone back off that race and again in the Bluegrass.

The Bluegrass was one of the more interesting preps in that the race was loaded with speed, projected to be a fast pace, the fractions were very fast, but the race didn't fall apart that much. So either the horses up front early (Just A Touch, Epic Ride, Dornoch and Top Conor) ran quite a bit better than it looks for new tops or those fast fractions didn't have as much of an impact on the race as you would expect.

[wiretowire68]

and the loading issues with 120000 people roaring and the greenness he showed switching his lead late and the lug is what makes me skeptical. I love Chad Brown and I have always loved dead closers, I am just not sure with the amount of traffic and the amount of horses "could cause him trouble" I still think I will use him but just not sold on T. Gaffalione... I have seen this kid with some bad rides in races. I am really surprised that I. Ortiz.... did not get this mount... but this is a Madaket horse and Domestic Spending is a Klaravich..

I heard Chad say in his interview that today's post position draw is the first thing they are worried about. I will start today with going over trip handicapping and video...on head ons. I am sure people on here have already checked the types of trips he has had. If Rich Strike can close from dead last... and you had Epicentre and Zandon.. than there is no reason why he can't but there are better EP and horses with speed in this derby... Fierceness. Catching Freedom, Encino, Just a Touch...

So... that Break.. the horses that get squeezed... and the drama begins.....