Lexington Stakes

[bisket]

Originally Posted by PalaceOfFortLarned

How so? The very tough Hades and Liberal Arts coming back?

I prefer Encino's running style for the Preakness anyway. He is a grinder. Grinders do well in the Preakness where closers rarely if ever win.

lol if fierceness wins, it'll be cupcake city in the Preakness. Baffert's horses will be in the Preakness. Unless the courts let him in the derby

[BarchCapper]

Originally Posted by PalaceOfFortLarned

Not sure he is in with 40 points. Would need a defect, right?

I would think he's guaranteed to wind up with a spot if they want it. There are ALWAYS defections, right?

Since the points system started in 2013 - would be interesting to see each years' post-Lexington standings and identify how far down past 20 the final entrant came from.

[PalaceOfFortLarned]

Originally Posted by bisket

lol if fierceness wins, it'll be cupcake city in the Preakness. Baffert's horses will be in the Preakness. Unless the courts let him in the derby

Probably true.

Muth gonna be like 4/5.

[zico20]

Originally Posted by PalaceOfFortLarned

Not sure he is in with 40 points. Would need a defect, right?

Cox already has Catching Freedom and Just a Touch. Thinking Encino may well be Preakness bound. It is Godolphin, and I can definitely see them waiting to get a G1 Triple Crown win in the Preakness with this one as opposed to just getting a gate in the Kentucky Derby.

He needs to run in the Derby as he has no chance in the Preakness with Muth.

[PalaceOfFortLarned]

Originally Posted by zico20

He needs to run in the Derby as he has no chance in the Preakness with Muth.

I think I finally get the message.

11th in the Kentucky Derby is much better than 3rd in the Preakness.

[zico20]

Originally Posted by PalaceOfFortLarned

I think I finally get the message.

11th in the Kentucky Derby is much better than 3rd in the Preakness.

Your original comment was a G1 win, in that regard he has a better chance of winning the Derby than the Preakness.

[PalaceOfFortLarned]

Originally Posted by zico20

Your original comment was a G1 win, in that regard he has a better chance of winning the Derby than the Preakness.

Sorry, but that is just crazy pills talk.

Essentially what you all are saying is that Muth would be 4/5 in the Kentucky Derby and that a 20 horse field would be easier to win than a 10 to 14 horse field.

Unless Nysos shows up in the Preakness, there isn't a planet we live upon in which the Derby will be easier to win than the Preakness.

[rastajenk]

Encino gets up to the spot with 40 pts, same as Grand Mo, but greater earnings is probably the tie-breaker. After Mo is Common Defense, Epic Ride, and Hades.

I went back only a few years, but every one recently has had one or more defections from the points list, sometimes in time for a replacement, a couple times a 19-horse field.

Timberlake took his 81 points and the 8th spot when he had his plans changed.

http://https://www.bloodhorse.com/ho...cky-derby/2024

Rich Strike was 24th on the list in '02; Pioneer of Medina got in at 56-1, and two others opted not to go. Tawny Port won the Lexington that year to jump up to the 11th spot, and finished 7th in the Derby at 80-1.

[PalaceOfFortLarned]

Originally Posted by rastajenk

Encino gets up to the spot with 40 pts, same as Grand Mo, but greater earnings is probably the tie-breaker. After Mo is Common Defense, Epic Ride, and Hades.

I went back only a few years, but every one recently has had one or more defections from the points list, sometimes in time for a replacement, a couple times a 19-horse field.

Timberlake took his 81 points and the 8th spot when he had his plans changed.

http://https://www.bloodhorse.com/ho...cky-derby/2024

Rich Strike was 24th on the list in '02; Pioneer of Medina got in at 56-1, and two others opted not to go. Tawny Port won the Lexington that year to jump up to the 11th spot, and finished 7th in the Derby at 80-1.

Thanks. Did the same dive.

Still don't think they should run Encino in the Kentucky Derby.

I think he is a better fit for the Preakness, or even to take on the Summer 3YO Derbies.

But if finishing 8th to 11th in the Kentucky Derby is the plan, then they should have it. They own the horse.

[bisket]

Originally Posted by PalaceOfFortLarned

Thanks. Did the same dive.

Still don't think they should run Encino in the Kentucky Derby.

I think he is a better fit for the Preakness, or even to take on the Summer 3YO Derbies.

But if finishing 8th to 11th in the Kentucky Derby is the plan, then they should have it. They own the horse.

He has the large heart gene in the right places in his breeding

[PalaceOfFortLarned]

Originally Posted by bisket

He has the large heart gene in the right places in his breeding

'

The large heart gene doesn't exist.

At least not anywhere close to now.

The Dosage Index has been completely crapped upon the last several years, and simply no longer exists, and if it did exist has gone to wayside of Big Foot and Loch Ness monster believers.

[rastajenk]

Originally Posted by PalaceOfFortLarned

I think he is a better fit for the Preakness, or even to take on the Summer 3YO Derbies.

I agree. There's no disgrace winning Indiana, Ohio, WVa Derbies before the PA Derby. A good showing in one of them might lead to the Travers. Lots of better choices later rather than sooner.

[sovereign]

Originally Posted by PalaceOfFortLarned

'

The large heart gene doesn't exist.

At least not anywhere close to now.

The Dosage Index has been completely crapped upon the last several years, and simply no longer exists, and if it did exist has gone to wayside of Big Foot and Loch Ness monster believers.

Merit was the closest to having the LH-X. PQ is right there up close on the correct passing only 5 generations away.

[zico20]

Originally Posted by PalaceOfFortLarned

Sorry, but that is just crazy pills talk.

Essentially what you all are saying is that Muth would be 4/5 in the Kentucky Derby and that a 20 horse field would be easier to win than a 10 to 14 horse field.

Unless Nysos shows up in the Preakness, there isn't a planet we live upon in which the Derby will be easier to win than the Preakness.

Why is it crazy talk? If you concede the three best horses are Fierceness, Sierra Leone and Muth what would you rather go up against? A loose on the lead Muth in the Preakness or go in the Derby and hope Fierceness has a slow start and doesn't get the lead and Sierra Leone coming from possibly dead last and circling the field to beat you. I know which path I would go down!

[PalaceOfFortLarned]

You're giving zero respect to those in the field
Rich Strike and the connections gave zero fucks.

Keep underrating horses. I'd love for you to keep doing that.