Dont Know What Blatant Manipulation Looks Like?

[NorCalGreg]

You do now--here is one the most glaring examples of "shenanigans", "gamesmanship", "prepping for a score", or whatever term you want to use.

This happens 99% of the time in cheap claimers--these horses don't earn enough to pay their feed bill--connections have to find some other "revenue stream"

FAIR TRADE is just an example--it just happens to be so obvious I decided to post.
This 7 yo wasn't actually doing too badly...almost 50% ITM, lifetime. Just couldn't get that winner's check.

Jan 9th-- he drops down off layoff...basically just a gallop around the track. Sometime after this race--it's decided what to do with FAIR TRADE. He's not the horse he once was...probably not going to get a winner's check @ TUP--so the decision is made to run 'Trade down to Riilito, in the low-level sprints they offer.

Jan 27th-With a ridiculous class-raise-- Just to be sure 'Trade can still do it--he blazes through the first 2 calls in a public "live" sprint workout.

Having accomplished that task--jockey immediately drops the horse to last and fades away. Wouldn't want any sharp handicappers to think this horse is improving. Notice the 4F time in that race--46.2? Now we know 'Trade is primed and ready for a score.

Feb 20th Riilito is now up and running---so after some sharp workouts- (again proving there is NOTHING preventing this horse from running his best race) he gallops around @ the same level--this race's only purpose was another conditioning work/race--and to further promote the idea this horse will look in terrible form

March 5th Finally, Riillito! FAIR TRADE steps off the van, and into a bottom-level 4F race--the one he prepped for Jan 27th with that blazing 4F explosion in 46 & change.

The thing is--this goes on almost every race here--horses appearing on their last legs---you'd wonder how they survived the van trip from TUP. Don't know why Fair Trade's people even bothered with all that "form coloring", as this is old hat @ Riillito.
Maybe they were thinking they would fool bettors, and get 6-1 on their horse they had carefully prepped for this day.

As you can see--he went off at even money, winning the 4F race in 47.1..something he showed he could do easily in that Jan 27th race.

He easily won today's 6F affair, as well.

THAT is what blatant manipulation looks like--in the claiming game. It's not illegal, they have commited NO CRIME....it's just the way the game is played. As a handicapper---either learn and adapt--or continue to scratch your head wondering how a horse that looks terrible in the PP's-- suddenly wins for fun.

-NCG☮

[biggestal99]

Actually this is a prime example Of a mark cramer radical horse. (Except for the price)

Three bad races, switiches tracks, drops in class

Easy as 1,2,3

Allan

[outofthebox]

And after all that planning, they got even money...

[NY BRED]

Well, the good story is that the clockers didn't blink on the
workouts which would have created a huge betting coupe.

at least 4 of the works were impressive..

[sammy the sage]

Even roaches gotta eat...

[bello]

NCG, If you don't like this you better stay away from harness racing where connections are rewarded for losing with class relief.

We know it as "dirtying one up". Typically a horse will drop in class for not winning a certain amount of $$$$ in the last 5 races. So what happens in those races? Think about it. This fact is a harness handicappers greatest asset.

Occurs less in t'bred races because the t'bred cannot race every week so it takes longer to set up a score. They are also less formal than the harness horse race after race. But it still occurs and will likely always be part of the game.

Occurs to an extent even at the top levels where connections use a race or to to condition fot the "big one"

[GatetoWire]

I doubt this was a betting coup.
Check out the pools for that race at Rillito
http://www.equibase.com/premium/char...16&cy=USA&rn=7

There was only $4K in the win pool and another $4K in the exotics.
I doubt bookies or offshore take heavy action on $2K claimer at Rillito

[johnhannibalsmith]

I love you Greg, but I see nothing of the sort with this turkey. A grass horse that can't seem to get out of the even pathetic conditioned turf races at TuP drops in to the bottom on dirt for a barn that has little patience with these types and nobody bites and the horse doesn't run much better on dirt. The class distinction is probably negligible - $8,500 conditioned is bottom on turf and most of those fields are littered with the same crap in bottom $3,500 dirt. The dirt move fails to register either a win or a sale at the claim box, so they go back to the preferred surface at the bottom conditioned level. He sucks a few more times and the patience is now completely run out. So they send him to Tucson, probably hoping to win and get him sold. They got at least half done.

That's my take. One of the part owners reads the forum but never posts. Maybe he'll catch a glimpse and give you his thoughts.

[green80]

and the winners share of the purse was only $1320.

[EMD4ME]

NCG,

Love the insight. Not saying your right or wrong. Just a couple of thoughts on the topic.


I used to love betting PENN back in the day (pre sluts). Why? Because it was all about trainer/owner manipulation and cashing the right bet because the purses weren't big enough.

I used to love many tracks pre slots as this was the game there (lining up a bet for the connections).

No more. Why?

Because once the slot money came in, the purses became enough for the connections. Do they still bet? Yes but not like before. Pools are smaller and purses are bigger. What I see for the last few years is super trainers juicing or tapping a horse on it's last legs, so that they can cash in on the super inflated purse. These horses are also bet, presumably from the stable so we get a drop down/off form/poor play winning at 1/2 day after day.

Blatant Manipulation is that 3 horse that won at CD after being "slowed down" first out at SA. Huge pools that day, paid $6 and they crushed their horse.

I'm sure Blatant Manipulation happens still but not at the rampant rate it happened 15 years ago.

Your example makes sense, not saying yeah or neah. But for a $1300 winner's share and a $4000 mutuel pool, not sure about that. What did the connections bet? $800-$1000? Those are questions that come to mind buddy.

[RedMeansGo]

Yes, Avila loading Masochistic up with a tranquilizer first out, his win at CD is still my biggest win bet to date. They didn't even try to hide that scam.

[Stillriledup]

Originally Posted by RedMeansGo

Yes, Avila loading Masochistic up with a tranquilizer first out, his win at CD is still my biggest win bet to date. They didn't even try to hide that scam.

Funny, I had a bet on him due to sniffing out the ride he got first out, the TQ meant nothing to me.

[EMD4ME]

Originally Posted by Stillriledup

Funny, I had a bet on him due to sniffing out the ride he got first out, the TQ meant nothing to me.

As many have said, when watching a replay, look for what didn't happen, not just what happened.

[NorCalGreg]

To all: thank you for your responses--interesting take from some. You know, this is what this forum is all about, to me. We talk handicapping, and learn from each other. Personally--I love hearing someone else's take. That is the reason I sometimes single out a race--so we can learn from each other.

Having said that--concerning FAIR TRADE...you've shown me I was probably wrong about Rillito being the objective here--the money just doesn't fit a betting coup.

What I'm absolutely firm on---those last two races @ TUP---I'll just call them "dubious". That 4F "workout" in the Jan 27th race--a thing of beauty, and here's why:
This pattern is classic--

#1 --UNUSUAL SPEED to first 2 calls--then an even fade.

#2 --WRL next race is what I give a "WRL" tip...WORST RACE LAST. No effort at all....you can figure out for yourself why this race is vital.

#3 --BIG CLASS DROP..this is the race--Today's The Day. This is the race to load up on. You can make your handicapping methodology, based on this pattern. Tom Worth, Tom Ainslie, Jim Lehane, and probably Mark Cramer as well--made their living on this pattern or variations of it.

So, the maneuvering here is obvious--none of this was "happenstance"....even if, as JHS pointed out--the "class raise" was negligible--it APPEARED to be a big jump up--that's what the connections were looking for.

To sum it up--since handicapping is basically a guessing game--I would guess that Rillito was decided out of convenience---the TUP Trainer of Record--Mike Chambers--doesn't keep horses around he can't win with.

I learned something here...hope you did too--let's do this again....

-NCG

[EMD4ME]

Originally Posted by NorCalGreg

To all: thank you for your responses--interesting take from some. You know, this is what this forum is all about, to me. We talk handicapping, and learn from each other. Personally--I love hearing someone else's take. That is the reason I sometimes single out a race--so we can learn from each other.

Having said that--concerning FAIR TRADE...you've shown me I was probably wrong about Rillito being the objective here--the money just doesn't fit a betting coup.

What I'm absolutely firm on---those last two races @ TUP---I'll just call them "dubious". That 4F "workout" in the Jan 27th race--a thing of beauty, and here's why:
This pattern is classic--

#1 --UNUSUAL SPEED to first 2 calls--then an even fade.

#2 --WRL next race is what I give a "WRL" tip...WORST RACE LAST. No effort at all....you can figure out for yourself why this race is vital.

#3 --BIG CLASS DROP..this is the race--Today's The Day. This is the race to load up on. You can make your handicapping methodology, based on this pattern. Tom Worth, Tom Ainslie, Jim Lehane, and probably Mark Cramer as well--made their living on this pattern or variations of it.

So, the maneuvering here is obvious--none of this was "happenstance"....even if, as JHS pointed out--the "class raise" was negligible--it APPEARED to be a big jump up--that's what the connections were looking for.

To sum it up--since handicapping is basically a guessing game--I would guess that Rillito was decided out of convenience---the TUP Trainer of Record--Mike Chambers--doesn't keep horses around he can't win with.

I learned something here...hope you did too--let's do this again....

-NCG

Same here NCG! Good stuff. Keep it up. Good reading material and fun to discuss.