Horse Racing Forum - PaceAdvantage.Com - Horse Racing Message Board

Go Back   Horse Racing Forum - PaceAdvantage.Com - Horse Racing Message Board > Contests + Other Interesting Racing Topics > Harness Racing


Reply
 
Thread Tools Rate Thread
Old 02-16-2010, 01:08 PM   #1
SchagFactorToWin
Registered User
 
SchagFactorToWin's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2009
Location: WNY
Posts: 444
off stride rates

Does anyone keep stats on the percentage of horses that break? I play Yonkers and had 5.2% of my picks for 2009 either break, DQ, be, or similar and was wondering if that is what should be expected.
SchagFactorToWin is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 02-16-2010, 02:02 PM   #2
LottaKash
Registered User
 
LottaKash's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2008
Posts: 6,843
Quote:
Originally Posted by SchagFactorToWin
Does anyone keep stats on the percentage of horses that break? I play Yonkers and had 5.2% of my picks for 2009 either break, DQ, be, or similar and was wondering if that is what should be expected.
Schag, that sounds about right.....

T=breds, have the stating gate issues, and harness has the "XX"-factor...

All part of the game, always has been, always will be....sucks tho...
__________________
.
"Cursed be the man who puts his trust in man" - Jer 17:5 (KJV)
LottaKash is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 02-16-2010, 02:46 PM   #3
badcompany
Registered User
 
badcompany's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2007
Location: Manhattan
Posts: 3,826
I don't have the numbers, but from experience, it depends on the type of race.

Trotters break more than pacers. Young horses break more than older ones.

If you follow the NYSS(New York Sire Stakes), in the 2yr old Filly trot division, it's not uncommon to see half the field break.
__________________
“Life does not ask what we want. It presents us with options”

― Thomas Sowell
badcompany is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 02-16-2010, 05:10 PM   #4
am1947
Registered User
 
Join Date: Aug 2008
Posts: 94
A quick check of M1 site from 11/21/2008 thru 8/22/2009 showed 1827 winners.
My data showed 1810 winners I do not have non betting races.
I showed 16,931 total entries

There were 502 scratches. 346 pacers and 156 trotters
So 16,429 horses went to the gate .

I showed 851 individual horses having an x or x's in their chart line.
851/16429= 5.17% entrants who broke trot and pace.


Of the 851 breakers 522 of them were trotters. 329 were pacers

4760 trot entrants minus 156 trotters scratched
4604 trotters went to the gate.
522/4604= 11.3% trotter break frequency.


12,171 pacers entered minus 346 scratches 11,825 pacers to the gate.
329/11,825= 2.78% pacer break frequency



Breaks (x) at each point of race.
PP x's 436
Q1 x's were 308
Q2 x's were230
Q3 x's were 292
T.S. x's were 334
Fin x's were 147

Obviously that total is more then 851 . Due to horses breaking at more then one call in a race.

If you include interference,broken eq, Dq's the number would go higher.
Also this is for M1 a 1 mile track Yonkers is a 1/2 with tighter turns so these numbers may be lower then a half miler with the tight turns.
So I would think you have to break your bets down by trot and pace to see how you are fairing to the numbers.

AM
am1947 is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 02-16-2010, 05:53 PM   #5
LottaKash
Registered User
 
LottaKash's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2008
Posts: 6,843
AM...thx for posting those interesting numbers....

Myself personally, I avoid most of those types of races as well....I have found that, once I got it thru my noggin that certain types of races produced more breakers than others, and that, by eliminating, or at least cutting-back on, from playing those types, my bottom line ($$$) improved remarkably....Why tempt fate, when you can have some say and control in this matter...It matters...imo...
__________________
.
"Cursed be the man who puts his trust in man" - Jer 17:5 (KJV)
LottaKash is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 02-17-2010, 12:26 PM   #6
SchagFactorToWin
Registered User
 
SchagFactorToWin's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2009
Location: WNY
Posts: 444
Thank you, AM.

Trotters account for 14.5% of my bets but 60% of the X's. I'll have to look closer at that.
SchagFactorToWin is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 02-18-2010, 06:28 AM   #7
Pacingguy
Registered User
 
Join Date: Jul 2009
Posts: 349
Eliminate Two Year Olds?

AM, is it possible to look at your statistics after eliminating two year olds? There is a reason why they call them baby races. We shouldn't be racing at two.

I am curious if we eliminated two year old racing if it would significantly reduce the number of breakers.
Pacingguy is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 02-18-2010, 08:10 AM   #8
Ray2000
Apple 2GS Wiz
 
Ray2000's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: Clarion, Pa
Posts: 8,478
am1947

We are very close on these stats.



My numbers for 2009, Parimutuel races only no Qualifiers,

( includes a few small tracks probably with Demolition Derby ruts )



............Break Lines......All lines......Break Percentage
all combined......24691.......436017...........5.7%

all pacers........11281.......327401...........3.4%
all trotters......13410.......108616..........12.3%

all 2yo pacers......660.........9991...........6.6%
all 2yo trotters....877.........4010..........21.9%


Subtracting out 2yos doesn't change the percentages much, too few starters

I didn't break it down on track condition, but sloppy tracks is another factor.
__________________
.
.
.The only sure thing about luck is that it will change.
Bret Harte
Ray2000 is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Reply




Thread Tools
Rate This Thread
Rate This Thread:

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off

Forum Jump

» Advertisement
Powered by vBadvanced CMPS v3.2.3

All times are GMT -4. The time now is 07:37 AM.


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.9
Copyright ©2000 - 2024, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.
Copyright 1999 - 2023 -- PaceAdvantage.Com -- All Rights Reserved
We are a participant in the Amazon Services LLC Associates Program, an affiliate advertising program
designed to provide a means for us to earn fees by linking to Amazon.com and affiliated sites.