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Old 09-16-2021, 01:19 PM   #1
mountainman
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First Call Leaders Relative to Field Size

Can someone post respective Impact Values on first call leaders broken down by field size and distance?

Dirt only.
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Old 09-20-2021, 07:47 AM   #2
v j stauffer
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Can someone post respective Impact Values on first call leaders broken down by field size and distance?

Dirt only.
I think I once read that 78% of horses who win North American dirt sprints were never farther back than 3rd at any point in the race.
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Old 09-20-2021, 10:50 AM   #3
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I think I once read that 78% of horses who win North American dirt sprints were never farther back than 3rd at any point in the race.
Yes. What I am looking for though, is the success rate of early leaders in relation to field size. And that's going to require a geek. Hope all is well, sir.
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Old 09-20-2021, 12:04 PM   #4
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Mark,

I set my current database up to query and report stats based on position at the second call (not the first.)

FWIW, I based that decision on research I did many years ago that suggested at most distances (5.5f and up) position at the second call is more significant than the first.

If stats based on leader at the second call is something you're interested in seeing - let me know. Also let me know if you are looking for MNR only - or if you are looking for a wider range of tracks.


-jp

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Old 09-20-2021, 02:41 PM   #5
mountainman
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Mark,

I set my current database up to query and report stats based on position at the second call (not the first.)

FWIW, I based that decision on research I did many years ago that suggested at most distances (5.5f and up) position at the second call is more significant than the first.

If stats based on leader at the second call is something you're interested in seeing - let me know. Also let me know if you are looking for MNR only - or if you are looking for a wider range of tracks.


-jp

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all tracks, jeff. dirt only, and tx. was hoping you or dave would answer the bat signal...
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Old 09-21-2021, 03:59 PM   #6
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Hi Mark,

I have attached a spreadsheet that shows for each dirt distance the likelihood that the first call leader would finish in each finishing position in relation to its natural odds. I think that is how impact values are done.
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File Type: xls t4.xls (77.0 KB, 43 views)
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Old 09-21-2021, 05:50 PM   #7
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Link to a text file showing 105k starters that led at the second call last out - all thoroughbred dirt races in the US and Canada from Jan 01, 2018 current through Sep 19, 2021 - no attempt to break ties - and the data broken out by FieldSize and Distance:
http://www.JCapper.com/MessageBoard/...s-09192021.txt


Avg Win Rate: 0.1978

Varies by FieldSize and Dist.


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Old 09-21-2021, 06:29 PM   #8
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Jeff P View Post
Link to a text file showing 105k starters that led at the second call last out - all thoroughbred dirt races in the US and Canada from Jan 01, 2018 current through Sep 19, 2021 - no attempt to break ties - and the data broken out by FieldSize and Distance:
http://www.JCapper.com/MessageBoard/...s-09192021.txt


Avg Win Rate: 0.1978

Varies by FieldSize and Dist.


-jp

.
Jeff

Can you eliminate the horses that finished out of the money in their last race?

I used to have a UDM just like the above, except the horses had to be in the money in their last race……and it was good one…….if it’s not to hard to do…….
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Old 09-22-2021, 04:01 PM   #9
mountainman
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Hi Mark,

I have attached a spreadsheet that shows for each dirt distance the likelihood that the first call leader would finish in each finishing position in relation to its natural odds. I think that is how impact values are done.
Dude..you are always there with the goods..much appreciated..and in your debt
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Old 09-22-2021, 04:02 PM   #10
mountainman
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Jeff P View Post
Link to a text file showing 105k starters that led at the second call last out - all thoroughbred dirt races in the US and Canada from Jan 01, 2018 current through Sep 19, 2021 - no attempt to break ties - and the data broken out by FieldSize and Distance:
http://www.JCapper.com/MessageBoard/...s-09192021.txt


Avg Win Rate: 0.1978

Varies by FieldSize and Dist.


-jp

.
much gratitude, jeff..guys like you are the main appeal of this place..

Last edited by mountainman; 09-22-2021 at 04:03 PM.
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Old 09-23-2021, 01:04 PM   #11
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Jeff

Can you eliminate the horses that finished out of the money in their last race?

I used to have a UDM just like the above, except the horses had to be in the money in their last race……and it was good one…….if it’s not to hard to do…….
Hey Ralph,

I added stats for POSFINCALL (finish position last out) to the linked to text file.

Hint: You may need to hit the refresh button on your webbrowser to see them after clicking the link to the text file.

As you can see, POSFINCALL last out between 1 and 3 had a higher win pct than 4th and up - but didn't do much for ROI.

I posted some follow up thoughts about this in the private area of my message board.


-jp

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Last edited by Jeff P; 09-23-2021 at 01:10 PM.
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Old 09-23-2021, 01:07 PM   #12
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much gratitude, jeff..guys like you are the main appeal of this place..
De nada.


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Old 09-24-2021, 01:02 AM   #13
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Lightbulb

As explanation to my request: While I have long studied the significance of speed (a phrase borrowed from the great William Quirin), to the point of sub-classifying early-lead types and profiling Mnr using various parameters to define running styles, I have never sought to confirm the logical assumption that the probability of an early leader winning improves at a rate disproportionate to incremental reductions in field size.

Smaller fields on average result in fewer speed-duels and less pressure on early leaders. We all take that as gospel. And I have assumed that such frequently seen and PREDICTED scenarios tend to condemn out-footed horses to chase early, often in uncomfortable contrast to their natural running styles.

Impact values of first call leaders, when categorized by field size (and formulated from a sufficient sample size), should confirm these commonly held perceptions.

Roi's of those first-call leaders, as respective to field size, would put the findings in perspective.

Last edited by mountainman; 09-24-2021 at 01:15 AM.
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Old 09-24-2021, 01:22 AM   #14
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Originally Posted by Jeff P View Post
Hey Ralph,

I added stats for POSFINCALL (finish position last out) to the linked to text file.

Hint: You may need to hit the refresh button on your webbrowser to see them after clicking the link to the text file.

As you can see, POSFINCALL last out between 1 and 3 had a higher win pct than 4th and up - but didn't do much for ROI.

I posted some follow up thoughts about this in the private area of my message board.


-jp

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Thank you Jeff………
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Old 09-24-2021, 09:48 AM   #15
mountainman
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Or to simplify my last post..I want to know if early leaders win more often than they statistically should in short(er) fields.

Last edited by mountainman; 09-24-2021 at 09:55 AM.
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