Aggressive Drivers

[Ray2000]

am1947's post in a different thread made me update the "Aggressive Scale" used in one of my bots routines for modeling race positions.
It might be of interest to some computer cappers.

The numbers here are for minimum 400 drives, excluding 2nd tier starts and are from my 2014 base. (Not Official)

Call gain/loss is to the half pole i.e starting post 7 and sitting 3rd at the half would be a +4.

Driver			Starts	Sit1-2	Win%	 Average Call Gain/Loss 
Gingras, Yannick	910	49%	28%	 1.57 
Palone, David		1704	52%	27%	 1.46 
Jamieson, Jody		1119	37%	19%	 1.24 
Gagnon, Guy		495	52%	25%	 1.08 
Morrill, James Jr	606	39%	29%	 1.01 
Napolitano, George Jr	1141	43%	23%	 0.93 
Macdonald, John		518	42%	15%	 0.88 
Lems, Chris		533	35%	17%	 0.86 
Warren, Todd		952	41%	20%	 0.80 
Sutton, Joshua		1687	41%	23%	 0.80 
Merriman, Aaron		3077	39%	19%	 0.78 
Wrenn, Ronnie Jr	1902	46%	25%	 0.76 
Brennan, George		1484	40%	19%	 0.74 
Byron, Aaron		793	37%	17%	 0.73 
Macdonald, Anthony	950	33%	12%	 0.73 
Hall, Tony		1687	32%	16%	 0.72 
Pierce, Ronald		1524	36%	17%	 0.71 
Cummings, Kevin		1127	43%	22%	 0.67 
Miller, Andy		402	32%	14%	 0.66 
Filion, Sylvain		1236	30%	13%	 0.60 
Morgan, Anthony		927	39%	15%	 0.58 
Ranger, Bruce		507	38%	22%	 0.56 
Waples, Randall		964	26%	14%	 0.54 
Henry, Trevor		1098	38%	26%	 0.50 
Hennessey, Walter	696	38%	19%	 0.50 
Smolin, Robert		683	30%	12%	 0.50 
Derue, Jordan		578	32%	17%	 0.49 
Plante, Jean		440	44%	20%	 0.48 
Plano, Luke		494	36%	20%	 0.47 
Wallis, Kevin		659	32%	11%	 0.46 
Campbell, John		456	25%	16%	 0.45 
Smith, Tyler		1280	31%	18%	 0.45 
Widger, Samuel		1083	32%	13%	 0.43 
Bartlett, Jason		1631	39%	22%	 0.43 
Harris, J Bradley	588	38%	10%	 0.42 
Davis, Billy Jr		1097	37%	12%	 0.41 
Kennedy, James		523	32%	19%	 0.38 
Aldrich, Bruce Jr	1713	36%	22%	 0.38 
Magee, Dave		602	31%	15%	 0.38 
Whittemore, D		508	28%	15%	 0.37 
Tetrick, Tim		938	28%	22%	 0.36 
Mcnair, Douglas		958	32%	15%	 0.35 
Maier, Tim		498	34%	19%	 0.35 
Cummings, John Jr	515	31%	13%	 0.34 
Wrenn, Peter		1214	30%	15%	 0.32 
Grismore, Greg		993	27%	13%	 0.29 
Kakaley, Matthew	1517	27%	15%	 0.29 
Seekman, Travis		666	29%	14%	 0.28 
Drury, Jonathan		872	30%	12%	 0.28 
Taggart, Jim Jr		699	31%	15%	 0.28 
Allard, Simon		1042	29%	16%	 0.27 
Sears, Brian		1315	32%	23%	 0.26 
Callahan, Corey		1550	31%	20%	 0.26 
Plano, Rick		827	33%	15%	 0.25 
Gale, Truman		687	25%	12%	 0.24 
Macomber, Richard Jr	868	28%	13%	 0.24 
Siegelman, Austin	938	30%	15%	 0.24 
Noble, Dan		882	31%	16%	 0.23 
Beckwith, Mark		540	36%	12%	 0.22 
Miller, David		915	25%	16%	 0.21 
Richardson, Bruce M	632	33%	15%	 0.20 
Ryan, Jason		668	33%	17%	 0.20 
Wiseman, Steve		620	29%	16%	 0.19 
Napolitano, Anthony	680	30%	13%	 0.19 
Macdonald, Mark		811	27%	12%	 0.19 
Davis, Allan		1503	33%	16%	 0.18 
Dobson, Billy		1157	30%	22%	 0.18 
De Long, John		931	25%	17%	 0.18 
Anderson, Ryan		686	27%	11%	 0.17 
Devaux, James		1641	31%	14%	 0.16 
Macdonell, Paul		731	24%	14%	 0.16 
Teague, Montrell	716	31%	15%	 0.15 
Stalbaum, Larry		1253	26%	9%	 0.14 
Marohn, James Jr	972	28%	19%	 0.13 
Hiteman, Dale		852	23%	11%	 0.12 
Christoforou, Chris	1115	21%	16%	 0.12 
Steward, Nicholas	681	33%	16%	 0.11 
Wilder, W		1800	25%	16%	 0.10 
Baillargeon, Mario	659	22%	12%	 0.09 
Page, Chris		1209	27%	17%	 0.09 
Beback, Ron Jr		979	28%	13%	 0.07 
Dennis, George		1542	27%	12%	 0.07 
Saftic, Michael		824	21%	11%	 0.03 
Merton, Michael		531	23%	14%	 0.03 
Abbatiello, Eric	772	30%	18%	 0.02 
Flanigen, Jack		833	27%	15%	 0.02 
Marshall, Jim III	718	26%	15%	 0.01 
Paquet, Fern Jr		559	27%	14%	 0.00 
Fisher, Ray Jr		832	25%	13%	 0.00 
Roberts, Jonathan	861	27%	12%	 (0.00)
Zeron, Richard		492	21%	13%	 (0.01)
Leonard, Casey		1278	25%	21%	 (0.01)
Mccarthy, Andrew	983	20%	12%	 (0.02)
Zeron, Scott		1036	23%	14%	 (0.02)
Pantaleano, James	842	25%	11%	 (0.02)
Gray, Shawn T		700	33%	16%	 (0.03)
Mcneight, David III	991	25%	12%	 (0.03)
Wolfenden, Ross		1409	24%	16%	 (0.03)
Shetler, Andy		733	23%	12%	 (0.03)
Tharps, Randy		810	25%	13%	 (0.04)
Miller, Brett		1261	24%	16%	 (0.05)
Ginsburg, Vincent	570	24%	14%	 (0.05)
Coppola, Frank Jr	619	25%	13%	 (0.05)
Wilfong, Kyle		970	26%	12%	 (0.05)
Holland, Brent		508	21%	10%	 (0.06)
Tetrick, Trace		1688	26%	16%	 (0.07)
Dibenedetto, Kyle	646	22%	7%	 (0.07)
Pavia, Joseph Jr	472	22%	11%	 (0.09)
Shepherd, Robert H	1033	25%	19%	 (0.09)
Smith, Jeremy		682	22%	10%	 (0.10)
Stratton, Jordan	1329	24%	10%	 (0.10)
Goodell, Eric		904	21%	11%	 (0.10)
Monti, Drew		935	24%	14%	 (0.10)
Dube, Daniel		1284	23%	13%	 (0.11)
Bouchard, Stephane	994	25%	14%	 (0.13)
Simons, Mike		959	21%	13%	 (0.14)
Mcclure, Bob		740	24%	19%	 (0.15)
Carpenter, Brian	605	23%	11%	 (0.15)
Mcdonough, Shawn	1000	22%	11%	 (0.16)
Young, Scott R		427	23%	13%	 (0.16)
Carroll, Alfred G	731	31%	22%	 (0.16)
Steacy, Clarke		428	21%	12%	 (0.17)
Ledford, Eric		1118	25%	11%	 (0.17)
Brittingham, Bret	580	24%	15%	 (0.17)
Wengerd, J D		718	29%	11%	 (0.19)
Stahl, Ryan		947	25%	10%	 (0.20)
Hensley, Ed		706	25%	19%	 (0.20)
Kauffman, Kayne		817	25%	10%	 (0.20)
Meittinis, Jim		559	22%	11%	 (0.20)
Coulter, Scott		1126	28%	15%	 (0.21)
Miller, Lewayne		786	20%	15%	 (0.22)
Carlson, Eric		1324	19%	12%	 (0.22)
Long, Chris		415	21%	11%	 (0.23)
Hudon, Phillip		1365	23%	11%	 (0.23)
Mackenzie, Paul G	623	24%	9%	 (0.23)
Rawlings, Dan		1411	19%	10%	 (0.24)
Macdonald, James A	1527	22%	16%	 (0.25)
Plante, Roger Jr	440	24%	9%	 (0.25)
Brown, Gord		427	25%	15%	 (0.26)
Stillings, Richard	575	21%	8%	 (0.27)
Miller, Marcus		863	18%	9%	 (0.27)
Buter, Tyler		950	18%	12%	 (0.29)
Mcneight, Jim		991	21%	12%	 (0.29)
Bongiorno, Joseph	842	20%	11%	 (0.29)
Kirby, Victor		1180	25%	15%	 (0.31)
Morand, Jim		768	21%	12%	 (0.35)
Cross, Brian		429	24%	10%	 (0.35)
Yoder, Wilbur		935	17%	9%	 (0.35)
Barker, Shawn II	406	17%	12%	 (0.36)
Lachance, Patrick	468	21%	14%	 (0.36)
Kash, Keith Jr		1143	24%	11%	 (0.39)
Condren, Stephen	415	16%	11%	 (0.40)
Lake, David		757	24%	9%	 (0.40)
Svendsen, Lemoyne	480	16%	12%	 (0.41)
Smith, Steve		807	19%	12%	 (0.42)
Thompson, Jason		738	20%	11%	 (0.44)
Randall, Jay		423	15%	11%	 (0.50)
Brewer, Jason		538	21%	13%	 (0.51)
Sugg, Kurt		1194	22%	11%	 (0.52)
Hanners, Brad		631	24%	14%	 (0.53)
Charlino, Dan		584	14%	7%	 (0.55)
Merriman, Jason		1159	19%	9%	 (0.55)
Irvine, Wyatt		780	19%	8%	 (0.57)
Magee, Dean		810	15%	9%	 (0.63)
Zendt, Brian		1341	17%	10%	 (0.64)
Curtin, Pat		575	13%	8%	 (0.64)
Jackson, Thomas		421	15%	4%	 (0.66)
House, Lorne		492	24%	11%	 (0.67)
Ater, Kyle		639	15%	11%	 (0.68)
Leonard, Ross		613	15%	10%	 (0.95)
Miller, Robin		1075	14%	11%	 (0.97)
Huckabone, Claude III	491	9%	11%	 (1.22)

[am1947]

R

Is this track specific ?
or a combination ?
suspect the latter

A

[Lose The Juice]

Something tells me these numbers are more a function of odds and the talents of the actual horses involved. Guy on top isn't driving a bunch of longshots for ofer trainers, and the peeps down at the bottom aren't driving Burke horses at 4-5.

[badcompany]

Nice work Ray.

You might want to break it down by track type, as improving pp at the start is easier on a 5/8 and mile, than on a half mile.

If you notice, most of the top guys race on the first two types. Jason Bartlett is an aggressive driver but he's pretty far down the list primarily because of the type of track where he drives.

[Ray2000]

Yes, these drives include starts at different tracks for each driver.

badcompany ...good point to break it down by track size, I'll check it and see what differences appear.
if I go with specific tracks then I'd have to go back another year to get a sufficient number of drives.

[pandy]

Palone and Gingras, top two, are the two regular drivers for Burke barn.

[Ray2000]

Yes, and as Lose_The_Juice mentioned you can't separate the horse from the driver in these numbers. Top trainers like Burke will want the top drivers up when the horse is sharp and ready to 'Go'.

My purpose here is to have some kind of numerical scale for "horse and driver" to determine Leaver, Closer or Stalker in any particular race. Driver rank would be just one part of the formula.

[Lose The Juice]

I think this combination of metrics will also put you into a chalk loop. Why not do this sort of thing with trainers?

[Ray2000]

Originally Posted by Lose The Juice

I think this combination of metrics will also put you into a chalk loop. Why not do this sort of thing with trainers?

Chalky yes, but what I've been working on for 40 years is finding the popper who doesn't quite figure to be a contender but somehow finishes 2nd or 3rd and makes the exotic numbers light up. Often, it's a trip horse that was close enough at the half to hang on even if losing ground in the stretch.

Example, Northfield R8 last night.

'Shoulda woulda coulda' used Bonners Creek in my exacta based on projected 1, maybe 2 leavers, slow pace race. As it turned out when Wrenn's horse (2nd fave) made a break most of the others were out of it.

As for using the trainer as a factor I think the "Send'm down the road" order occurs but mostly it's the driver's call. IMO the reason the 5 and 6 holes are the best draws is the driver has the best view of the field, and an advantage on whether or not to try for the early lead.

[Stillriledup]

The shorter the win price in harness racing, the more likely it is that the driver will be either leaving the gate or brushing to the front very soon....so, to give someone credit for leaving the gate with a 2-5 shot isn't fair because even the most passive driver would leave the gate, they all would...i love the idea of the advanced stats, but because of the nature of the game where heavy favorites are almost always driven aggressively, its hard to determine if the driver should get credit, or the situation dictated his strategy.

Maybe if you eliminate all horses that are under 3-1 odds you would get a more true picture?

[Ray2000]

Originally Posted by Stillriledup

...
Maybe if you eliminate all horses that are under 3-1 odds you would get a more true picture?

Not much change in rankings for drives on horses going off 3/1 or higher.
Jody moves up to the top when sorted on my Gain/Loss, post to half pole in calls.
I did not compared rankings (vs all starts in the OP) when sorted on Win% or Sitting1-2 at half percents.

Most significant change was Bruce Ranger dropping to -.05 from +.56

Driver			Starts	Sit1-2	Win%	 Average Call Gain/Loss 
Jamieson, Jody		742	31%	11%	 1.28 
Gingras, Yannick	498	33%	12%	 1.15 
Palone, David		721	34%	11%	 0.95 
Gagnon, Guy		264	36%	6%	 0.69 
Morrill, James Jr	309	21%	13%	 0.66 
Macdonald, Anthony	781	28%	7%	 0.64 
Sutton, Joshua		1112	31%	13%	 0.60 
Cummings, Kevin		741	31%	12%	 0.58 
Merriman, Aaron		2091	28%	9%	 0.55 
Hall, Tony		1301	25%	10%	 0.50 
Macdonald, John		376	34%	9%	 0.50 
Byron, Aaron		576	29%	9%	 0.48 
Plante, Jean		281	33%	11%	 0.46 
Derue, Jordan		408	23%	7%	 0.45 
Wrenn, Ronnie Jr	1022	28%	9%	 0.44 
Brennan, George		905	24%	9%	 0.43 
Lems, Chris		375	25%	9%	 0.42 
Pierce, Ronald		1005	24%	8%	 0.41 
Smolin, Robert		555	28%	7%	 0.40 
Warren, Todd		621	28%	8%	 0.38 
Napolitano, George Jr	671	24%	10%	 0.38 
Morgan, Anthony		703	28%	8%	 0.38 
Harris, J Bradley	515	33%	5%	 0.35 
Waples, Randall		725	21%	9%	 0.34 
Campbell, John		343	20%	8%	 0.32 
Widger, Samuel		871	28%	8%	 0.27 
Filion, Sylvain		963	23%	7%	 0.25 
Miller, Andy		307	23%	7%	 0.25 
Whittemore, D		395	24%	11%	 0.21 
Kennedy, James		378	25%	9%	 0.20 
Cummings, John Jr	416	23%	6%	 0.20 
Henry, Trevor		586	23%	10%	 0.19 
Davis, Billy Jr		844	28%	7%	 0.18 
Hennessey, Walter	495	28%	10%	 0.16 
Grismore, Greg		835	22%	8%	 0.15 
Wallis, Kevin		527	22%	5%	 0.15 
Mcnair, Douglas		732	26%	8%	 0.15 
Plano, Luke		295	26%	9%	 0.14 
Smith, Tyler		922	23%	10%	 0.13 
Richardson, Bruce M	516	28%	12%	 0.11 
Taggart, Jim Jr		555	21%	8%	 0.10 
Gale, Truman		567	20%	8%	 0.07 
Bartlett, Jason		1060	23%	9%	 0.06 
Siegelman, Austin	722	20%	8%	 0.05 
Allard, Simon		730	20%	8%	 0.03 
Maier, Tim		299	25%	10%	 0.03 
Wrenn, Peter		930	24%	9%	 0.03 
Drury, Jonathan		725	24%	8%	 0.01 
Ryan, Jason		485	23%	10%	 0.01 
Beckwith, Mark		444	28%	6%	 0.01 
Noble, Dan		658	23%	9%	   0.00
Kakaley, Matthew	1145	16%	8%	 (0.01)
Stalbaum, Larry		1079	20%	5%	 (0.02)
Macomber, Richard Jr	651	22%	8%	 (0.02)
Beback, Ron Jr		737	18%	7%	 (0.02)
Wilder, W		1343	20%	9%	 (0.02)
Christoforou, Chris	835	17%	8%	 (0.04)
Napolitano, Anthony	561	23%	8%	 (0.04)
De Long, John		662	17%	9%	 (0.04)
Devaux, James		1313	21%	7%	 (0.04)
Davis, Allan		1166	23%	8%	 (0.05)
Sears, Brian		731	15%	9%	 (0.05)
Ranger, Bruce		319	24%	11%	 (0.05)
Aldrich, Bruce Jr	1075	20%	9%	 (0.05)
Wiseman, Steve		452	23%	10%	 (0.06)
Mcneight, David III	816	18%	6%	 (0.06)
Seekman, Travis		530	20%	7%	 (0.07)
Saftic, Michael		718	17%	7%	 (0.07)
Steward, Nicholas	523	25%	9%	 (0.08)
Macdonald, Mark		660	19%	8%	 (0.08)
Anderson, Ryan		563	19%	6%	 (0.08)
Plano, Rick		603	25%	8%	 (0.09)
Ginsburg, Vincent	467	17%	8%	 (0.09)
Hiteman, Dale		687	18%	5%	 (0.09)
Flanigen, Jack		658	17%	9%	 (0.09)
Macdonell, Paul		605	17%	8%	 (0.12)
Dobson, Billy		709	15%	11%	 (0.12)
Baillargeon, Mario	553	18%	7%	 (0.12)
Miller, David		673	16%	9%	 (0.12)
Tharps, Randy		690	22%	9%	 (0.13)
Smith, Jeremy		606	20%	8%	 (0.14)
Dibenedetto, Kyle	565	16%	4%	 (0.14)
Abbatiello, Eric	507	14%	7%	 (0.14)
Shepherd, Robert H	727	18%	10%	 (0.14)
Magee, Dave		425	21%	7%	 (0.14)
Marshall, Jim III	563	16%	7%	 (0.15)
Fisher, Ray Jr		649	15%	5%	 (0.15)
Shetler, Andy		604	19%	7%	 (0.16)
Merton, Michael		444	17%	9%	 (0.17)
Holland, Brent		470	16%	7%	 (0.17)
Pantaleano, James	734	21%	6%	 (0.18)
Mccarthy, Andrew	823	15%	7%	 (0.18)
Monti, Drew		746	17%	8%	 (0.18)
Roberts, Jonathan	714	20%	6%	 (0.18)
Teague, Montrell	568	20%	8%	 (0.21)
Callahan, Corey		1050	17%	8%	 (0.21)
Goodell, Eric		784	16%	6%	 (0.22)
Mcdonough, Shawn	816	14%	6%	 (0.22)
Coppola, Frank Jr	512	17%	8%	 (0.22)
Dennis, George		1260	18%	5%	 (0.23)
Paquet, Fern Jr		427	20%	8%	 (0.23)
Stratton, Jordan	1133	17%	6%	 (0.23)
Bouchard, Stephane	799	18%	7%	 (0.25)
Page, Chris		887	19%	8%	 (0.25)
Wilfong, Kyle		797	20%	7%	 (0.26)
Dube, Daniel		1035	13%	7%	 (0.26)
Coulter, Scott		799	20%	8%	 (0.26)
Mackenzie, Paul G	530	22%	6%	 (0.27)
Gray, Shawn T		560	23%	9%	 (0.28)
Steacy, Clarke		355	15%	7%	 (0.28)
Kauffman, Kayne		696	21%	7%	 (0.29)
Mcneight, Jim		834	14%	8%	 (0.29)
Mcclure, Bob		587	19%	12%	 (0.30)
Tetrick, Tim		596	14%	9%	 (0.30)
Pavia, Joseph Jr	384	16%	6%	 (0.30)
Marohn, James Jr	677	16%	9%	 (0.31)
Miller, Brett		1007	17%	9%	 (0.31)
Brown, Gord		306	23%	9%	 (0.32)
Carroll, Alfred G	473	21%	12%	 (0.32)
Ledford, Eric		965	21%	7%	 (0.32)
Zeron, Richard		386	13%	7%	 (0.33)
Wengerd, J D		635	23%	7%	 (0.33)
Rawlings, Dan		1257	16%	7%	 (0.35)
Hudon, Phillip		1180	19%	7%	 (0.35)
Carpenter, Brian	532	19%	6%	 (0.35)
Zeron, Scott		808	16%	8%	 (0.36)
Young, Scott R		341	16%	9%	 (0.36)
Leonard, Casey		809	16%	11%	 (0.36)
Plante, Roger Jr	383	17%	7%	 (0.37)
Bongiorno, Joseph	687	13%	5%	 (0.38)
Long, Chris		334	13%	5%	 (0.39)
Simons, Mike		786	14%	8%	 (0.40)
Carlson, Eric		1117	12%	7%	 (0.40)
Stahl, Ryan		767	17%	4%	 (0.40)
Wolfenden, Ross		999	12%	7%	 (0.41)
Barker, Shawn II	378	15%	9%	 (0.41)
Yoder, Wilbur		863	15%	6%	 (0.41)
Meittinis, Jim		460	15%	6%	 (0.42)
Stillings, Richard	503	17%	5%	 (0.43)
Macdonald, James A	1183	15%	10%	 (0.44)
Tetrick, Trace		1258	19%	8%	 (0.45)
Kash, Keith Jr		945	19%	7%	 (0.46)
Miller, Marcus		728	12%	4%	 (0.48)
Cross, Brian		379	19%	6%	 (0.49)
Lake, David		662	20%	5%	 (0.49)
Smith, Steve		665	12%	7%	 (0.49)
Buter, Tyler		800	11%	7%	 (0.50)
Thompson, Jason		636	17%	7%	 (0.50)
Miller, Lewayne		623	17%	8%	 (0.51)
Lachance, Patrick	353	10%	6%	 (0.52)
Hensley, Ed		497	19%	11%	 (0.57)
Brittingham, Bret	434	13%	7%	 (0.57)
Brewer, Jason		463	17%	8%	 (0.57)
Svendsen, Lemoyne	390	13%	7%	 (0.58)
Condren, Stephen	353	12%	6%	 (0.58)
Charlino, Dan		548	14%	6%	 (0.58)
Randall, Jay		364	10%	7%	 (0.59)
Kirby, Victor		912	15%	9%	 (0.63)
Morand, Jim		622	14%	5%	 (0.65)
Sugg, Kurt		1031	16%	6%	 (0.65)
Merriman, Jason		979	12%	5%	 (0.69)
Irvine, Wyatt		723	15%	5%	 (0.71)
Zendt, Brian		1152	14%	6%	 (0.74)
Curtin, Pat		508	10%	5%	 (0.75)
House, Lorne		440	19%	7%	 (0.75)
Ater, Kyle		545	12%	7%	 (0.75)
Magee, Dean		719	12%	6%	 (0.76)
Hanners, Brad		534	19%	8%	 (0.77)
Jackson, Thomas		391	12%	2%	 (0.78)
Miller, Robin		932	10%	5%	 (1.11)
Leonard, Ross		534	11%	7%	 (1.11)
Huckabone, Claude III	436	8%	8%	 (1.25)

[badcompany]

One guy near the top who doesn't surprise me is Kevin Cummings. He's very good at getting horses out of the gate fast. Not surprisingly, he's the top driver on the Buf/Bat circuit.

[Lose The Juice]

Again, JMO, but if you're looking for longshots, it would seem to me that tracking driver performance is counterproductive. To the extent that there's any meaningful "outsider" money in the pools at all these days, it would seem to be driven by who's driving who, since the noobs and dilettantes generally focus on this one aspect (see Scoop, The Inside) to the exclusion of most if not all other variables.

Some trainers, even relatively well-known ones, have an established history of winning at long odds with horses coming off bad races, or scratches, or oddball layoffs. To the extent that there's money to be made on longshots at all these days, it seems the possibilities would be greater there. Betting Jamieson and Palone leaves you betting a lot of short-priced horses.

[Stillriledup]

Originally Posted by Ray2000

Not much change in rankings for drives on horses going off 3/1 or higher.
Jody moves up to the top when sorted on my Gain/Loss, post to half pole in calls.
I did not compared rankings (vs all starts in the OP) when sorted on Win% or Sitting1-2 at half percents.

Most significant change was Bruce Ranger dropping to -.05 from +.56

Driver			Starts	Sit1-2	Win%	 Average Call Gain/Loss 
Jamieson, Jody		742	31%	11%	 1.28 
Gingras, Yannick	498	33%	12%	 1.15 
Palone, David		721	34%	11%	 0.95 
Gagnon, Guy		264	36%	6%	 0.69 
Morrill, James Jr	309	21%	13%	 0.66 
Macdonald, Anthony	781	28%	7%	 0.64 
Sutton, Joshua		1112	31%	13%	 0.60 
Cummings, Kevin		741	31%	12%	 0.58 
Merriman, Aaron		2091	28%	9%	 0.55 
Hall, Tony		1301	25%	10%	 0.50 
Macdonald, John		376	34%	9%	 0.50 
Byron, Aaron		576	29%	9%	 0.48 
Plante, Jean		281	33%	11%	 0.46 
Derue, Jordan		408	23%	7%	 0.45 
Wrenn, Ronnie Jr	1022	28%	9%	 0.44 
Brennan, George		905	24%	9%	 0.43 
Lems, Chris		375	25%	9%	 0.42 
Pierce, Ronald		1005	24%	8%	 0.41 
Smolin, Robert		555	28%	7%	 0.40 
Warren, Todd		621	28%	8%	 0.38 
Napolitano, George Jr	671	24%	10%	 0.38 
Morgan, Anthony		703	28%	8%	 0.38 
Harris, J Bradley	515	33%	5%	 0.35 
Waples, Randall		725	21%	9%	 0.34 
Campbell, John		343	20%	8%	 0.32 
Widger, Samuel		871	28%	8%	 0.27 
Filion, Sylvain		963	23%	7%	 0.25 
Miller, Andy		307	23%	7%	 0.25 
Whittemore, D		395	24%	11%	 0.21 
Kennedy, James		378	25%	9%	 0.20 
Cummings, John Jr	416	23%	6%	 0.20 
Henry, Trevor		586	23%	10%	 0.19 
Davis, Billy Jr		844	28%	7%	 0.18 
Hennessey, Walter	495	28%	10%	 0.16 
Grismore, Greg		835	22%	8%	 0.15 
Wallis, Kevin		527	22%	5%	 0.15 
Mcnair, Douglas		732	26%	8%	 0.15 
Plano, Luke		295	26%	9%	 0.14 
Smith, Tyler		922	23%	10%	 0.13 
Richardson, Bruce M	516	28%	12%	 0.11 
Taggart, Jim Jr		555	21%	8%	 0.10 
Gale, Truman		567	20%	8%	 0.07 
Bartlett, Jason		1060	23%	9%	 0.06 
Siegelman, Austin	722	20%	8%	 0.05 
Allard, Simon		730	20%	8%	 0.03 
Maier, Tim		299	25%	10%	 0.03 
Wrenn, Peter		930	24%	9%	 0.03 
Drury, Jonathan		725	24%	8%	 0.01 
Ryan, Jason		485	23%	10%	 0.01 
Beckwith, Mark		444	28%	6%	 0.01 
Noble, Dan		658	23%	9%	   0.00
Kakaley, Matthew	1145	16%	8%	 (0.01)
Stalbaum, Larry		1079	20%	5%	 (0.02)
Macomber, Richard Jr	651	22%	8%	 (0.02)
Beback, Ron Jr		737	18%	7%	 (0.02)
Wilder, W		1343	20%	9%	 (0.02)
Christoforou, Chris	835	17%	8%	 (0.04)
Napolitano, Anthony	561	23%	8%	 (0.04)
De Long, John		662	17%	9%	 (0.04)
Devaux, James		1313	21%	7%	 (0.04)
Davis, Allan		1166	23%	8%	 (0.05)
Sears, Brian		731	15%	9%	 (0.05)
Ranger, Bruce		319	24%	11%	 (0.05)
Aldrich, Bruce Jr	1075	20%	9%	 (0.05)
Wiseman, Steve		452	23%	10%	 (0.06)
Mcneight, David III	816	18%	6%	 (0.06)
Seekman, Travis		530	20%	7%	 (0.07)
Saftic, Michael		718	17%	7%	 (0.07)
Steward, Nicholas	523	25%	9%	 (0.08)
Macdonald, Mark		660	19%	8%	 (0.08)
Anderson, Ryan		563	19%	6%	 (0.08)
Plano, Rick		603	25%	8%	 (0.09)
Ginsburg, Vincent	467	17%	8%	 (0.09)
Hiteman, Dale		687	18%	5%	 (0.09)
Flanigen, Jack		658	17%	9%	 (0.09)
Macdonell, Paul		605	17%	8%	 (0.12)
Dobson, Billy		709	15%	11%	 (0.12)
Baillargeon, Mario	553	18%	7%	 (0.12)
Miller, David		673	16%	9%	 (0.12)
Tharps, Randy		690	22%	9%	 (0.13)
Smith, Jeremy		606	20%	8%	 (0.14)
Dibenedetto, Kyle	565	16%	4%	 (0.14)
Abbatiello, Eric	507	14%	7%	 (0.14)
Shepherd, Robert H	727	18%	10%	 (0.14)
Magee, Dave		425	21%	7%	 (0.14)
Marshall, Jim III	563	16%	7%	 (0.15)
Fisher, Ray Jr		649	15%	5%	 (0.15)
Shetler, Andy		604	19%	7%	 (0.16)
Merton, Michael		444	17%	9%	 (0.17)
Holland, Brent		470	16%	7%	 (0.17)
Pantaleano, James	734	21%	6%	 (0.18)
Mccarthy, Andrew	823	15%	7%	 (0.18)
Monti, Drew		746	17%	8%	 (0.18)
Roberts, Jonathan	714	20%	6%	 (0.18)
Teague, Montrell	568	20%	8%	 (0.21)
Callahan, Corey		1050	17%	8%	 (0.21)
Goodell, Eric		784	16%	6%	 (0.22)
Mcdonough, Shawn	816	14%	6%	 (0.22)
Coppola, Frank Jr	512	17%	8%	 (0.22)
Dennis, George		1260	18%	5%	 (0.23)
Paquet, Fern Jr		427	20%	8%	 (0.23)
Stratton, Jordan	1133	17%	6%	 (0.23)
Bouchard, Stephane	799	18%	7%	 (0.25)
Page, Chris		887	19%	8%	 (0.25)
Wilfong, Kyle		797	20%	7%	 (0.26)
Dube, Daniel		1035	13%	7%	 (0.26)
Coulter, Scott		799	20%	8%	 (0.26)
Mackenzie, Paul G	530	22%	6%	 (0.27)
Gray, Shawn T		560	23%	9%	 (0.28)
Steacy, Clarke		355	15%	7%	 (0.28)
Kauffman, Kayne		696	21%	7%	 (0.29)
Mcneight, Jim		834	14%	8%	 (0.29)
Mcclure, Bob		587	19%	12%	 (0.30)
Tetrick, Tim		596	14%	9%	 (0.30)
Pavia, Joseph Jr	384	16%	6%	 (0.30)
Marohn, James Jr	677	16%	9%	 (0.31)
Miller, Brett		1007	17%	9%	 (0.31)
Brown, Gord		306	23%	9%	 (0.32)
Carroll, Alfred G	473	21%	12%	 (0.32)
Ledford, Eric		965	21%	7%	 (0.32)
Zeron, Richard		386	13%	7%	 (0.33)
Wengerd, J D		635	23%	7%	 (0.33)
Rawlings, Dan		1257	16%	7%	 (0.35)
Hudon, Phillip		1180	19%	7%	 (0.35)
Carpenter, Brian	532	19%	6%	 (0.35)
Zeron, Scott		808	16%	8%	 (0.36)
Young, Scott R		341	16%	9%	 (0.36)
Leonard, Casey		809	16%	11%	 (0.36)
Plante, Roger Jr	383	17%	7%	 (0.37)
Bongiorno, Joseph	687	13%	5%	 (0.38)
Long, Chris		334	13%	5%	 (0.39)
Simons, Mike		786	14%	8%	 (0.40)
Carlson, Eric		1117	12%	7%	 (0.40)
Stahl, Ryan		767	17%	4%	 (0.40)
Wolfenden, Ross		999	12%	7%	 (0.41)
Barker, Shawn II	378	15%	9%	 (0.41)
Yoder, Wilbur		863	15%	6%	 (0.41)
Meittinis, Jim		460	15%	6%	 (0.42)
Stillings, Richard	503	17%	5%	 (0.43)
Macdonald, James A	1183	15%	10%	 (0.44)
Tetrick, Trace		1258	19%	8%	 (0.45)
Kash, Keith Jr		945	19%	7%	 (0.46)
Miller, Marcus		728	12%	4%	 (0.48)
Cross, Brian		379	19%	6%	 (0.49)
Lake, David		662	20%	5%	 (0.49)
Smith, Steve		665	12%	7%	 (0.49)
Buter, Tyler		800	11%	7%	 (0.50)
Thompson, Jason		636	17%	7%	 (0.50)
Miller, Lewayne		623	17%	8%	 (0.51)
Lachance, Patrick	353	10%	6%	 (0.52)
Hensley, Ed		497	19%	11%	 (0.57)
Brittingham, Bret	434	13%	7%	 (0.57)
Brewer, Jason		463	17%	8%	 (0.57)
Svendsen, Lemoyne	390	13%	7%	 (0.58)
Condren, Stephen	353	12%	6%	 (0.58)
Charlino, Dan		548	14%	6%	 (0.58)
Randall, Jay		364	10%	7%	 (0.59)
Kirby, Victor		912	15%	9%	 (0.63)
Morand, Jim		622	14%	5%	 (0.65)
Sugg, Kurt		1031	16%	6%	 (0.65)
Merriman, Jason		979	12%	5%	 (0.69)
Irvine, Wyatt		723	15%	5%	 (0.71)
Zendt, Brian		1152	14%	6%	 (0.74)
Curtin, Pat		508	10%	5%	 (0.75)
House, Lorne		440	19%	7%	 (0.75)
Ater, Kyle		545	12%	7%	 (0.75)
Magee, Dean		719	12%	6%	 (0.76)
Hanners, Brad		534	19%	8%	 (0.77)
Jackson, Thomas		391	12%	2%	 (0.78)
Miller, Robin		932	10%	5%	 (1.11)
Leonard, Ross		534	11%	7%	 (1.11)
Huckabone, Claude III	436	8%	8%	 (1.25)

Interesting.

You can play around with subsets and probably come to some good conclusions. Maybe try horses 15-1 or higher.....see which drivers have a tendency to leave the gate on bombs, knowing that info would be a gold mine.

[LottaKash]

Originally Posted by Lose The Juice

Betting Jamieson and Palone leaves you betting a lot of short-priced horses.

I ran across this timely article by Derrick Giwner @DRF, today....

http://www.drf.com/news/giwner-brand...ot-always-best


It lends much support to what others have been saying about certain drivers in some very recent posts here at PA-Harness...

I especially like the thumbs up he gave to driver Daryl Bier....DB is one of my favorites....Not so much at DD, because I die of boredom from the lack of a changing dynamic there, but more so, because when he ventures away from that place, he always seems to be well meant, especially on horses that he both owns and trains... It is has been this way for a bunch of years with him, at that...