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Old 02-27-2014, 12:08 AM   #16
imofe
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Don't be too hard on yourself. These things happen. Saturday I was playing Woodbine and had a big interest in I Scoot Sam in the 7th. I was watching the odds drift between 5-10 to 1 with about five minutes to post when a friend that I have not seen in a long time came in. We start talking about something and before I knew it, the horses were off. We all know the end to this story, or at least it seems to happen more often than not. $ 16.8
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Old 02-27-2014, 12:53 AM   #17
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Originally Posted by imofe
Don't be too hard on yourself. These things happen. Saturday I was playing Woodbine and had a big interest in I Scoot Sam in the 7th. I was watching the odds drift between 5-10 to 1 with about five minutes to post when a friend that I have not seen in a long time came in. We start talking about something and before I knew it, the horses were off. We all know the end to this story, or at least it seems to happen more often than not. $ 16.8
IMOFE...Actually, I am not very hard on myself at all....I wasn't trying to convey that at all...

I was just being "dramatic" as is in telling a story, as in a day in the life of a handicapper....And, how silly some days are for us..

Heck, I've been at this for over 50 years, and actually, I am disappointed that anyone may think that I am crying the blues....I've seen and done too much for this late in my handicapping life....Heck, I remember when hundred(s) of dollar wagers were the norm for a spell in my life....

Still, whether it is $2 or $200 it is all relative all the same....And so it is with this also....This counts just as much for me at this level as it did when the bets were so much bigger....

In reality, when my BR is in the shape that I like it to be, $20, 30 & 40 dollars bets are my "cup of tea"....I have been in the black for the past 7-years or so, with yearly profits ranging from $2,500 to only $700, but it is still fun for me, and I never have to go to the bank, that's all...

Thanks all the same for the words of consolation tho...It matters...

P.S. iomfe, notice in the post before this, and you will see in the photo that my Horses to Watch list shows "I SCOOT SAM" as well....He ran his last 1/4 in 25.2, and hasn't been seen since....Usually horses in that low of price, will usually suffer something or other from a QT as quick as that one....Even the best ones may take a week off, off of a split like that...

10-4
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Old 02-28-2014, 12:30 AM   #18
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Old 03-01-2014, 01:39 AM   #19
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Could've been better, and could've been worse...

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Old 03-01-2014, 11:46 PM   #20
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Old 03-02-2014, 01:56 PM   #21
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FYI , That "ez lead" you refer to for K-Lees Shakenbake on 03/01 R#5 would qualify as a Mark Goldie BPQ qtr.

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Old 03-02-2014, 04:53 PM   #22
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Originally Posted by am1947
LK

FYI , That "ez lead" you refer to for K-Lees Shakenbake on 03/01 R#5 would qualify as a Mark Goldie BPQ qtr.

AM
AM, I am not sure why or what you are seeing here....I remember the BPQ thing, and that was definitely good food for thought thing, but imo, that ain't it for me here in this case....Could you refresh my memory...Not trying to pick a fight, but I sure would like your take on this, the BPQ factor...

I know I never finished my "PIP" thing, and I apologize to everyone for not doing so, but for me, K LEES SHAkENBAKE had things pretty much his own way early on in that mile, but the final segment of his PIP is what did him in,imo.....His big mistake was changing his style of racing, from the role of closer to a front runner, I believe....Still with the young lightly raced ones there has to come a time when they crack down further in order to get him the experience that he needs to get him where he may be meant to be, or to find maybe once and for all how good he can "really" go early in his miles...

In this case, the PIP was a 6/023=, and is taken from the splits of 26.3 56.0 124.1 151.0....So you can see that the "back-end" of the mile was the most taxing part of the race...Meaning anytime the PIP shows a "3", especially preceded by a "2 or another 3", well, that is more than reason enough to take notice...And in this case I truly believe that, after his new adventure on the front end, he wasn't capable of that big of a go late in this race....I see this all the time with the young ones...

As a matter of fact, this horse proved that he can really motor off of extremely fast late pace fractions....As, in his last race, after he could only go in 30 seconds, he then rattled off splits of 26.3 27.3 & 26.2 "back to back", and his last 3/4's were run in 120.1 !!!!!....So it wasn't that he can't go fast, but imo, he is a horse that probably can't go fast early and win....Not many horses are capable of surviving those splits and live to tell about it, only the best ones can do that....And, off of those back end fractions in his previous race, I project him to be a solid "A-rated" horse, real soon too,,...Higher than that, we will see ?..

Sometimes, I have found, when a horse goes that quick, as in his previous race with those hairball splits, a horse may "bounce" a wee bit as a result....And, often enough it will show & tell in the following race....For instance a horse may do exactly what Shakeandbake did last nite, and they will change his style, thus giving him an excuse for a loss, or they will scratch him out the following week probably due to lameness whether a big or small amount, or will change tracks for some easier racing until healed up enough to return.....In this case he raced, and he didn't break, which often happens when horses "overpace" in their previous race, but, "they did" try him on the engine, maybe to keep up appearance, and/or to hold the good form enough, til next race....I think that is the case here, simply put, imo..

Bottom line for me, next week, I don't think that any of these will beat him next outing...

He is at the top of my list of "NOW" horses....
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Old 03-02-2014, 07:39 PM   #23
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BPQ was a markgoldie concept of the Q1 time divided by the final time.
Race 2(23.85%), Race 4 (23.91%), and Race 5(23.96%) for 3/1/14 M1 were BPQ's as all were under the 23.98% for that nite.
(minus Race 10 which was a 1 1/16 mile) .

That Sat. nites avg was 24.44% - .46% = 23.98% (.46 std dev.for M1)

The thought was when a horse goes to fast in that first QTR compared to the final time of that race then they could be excused for failing in the stretch. Thus a Breaking Point Quarter. Confirmed pullers were not to be excused.

So my point was that IMO I would excuse K LEES SHAkENBAKE lack of punch in the stretch as being related to a BPQ.

I searched for the original thread but could not find it. Hopefully someone else can.

Later
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Old 03-02-2014, 08:25 PM   #24
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found this in my archieves

From Markgoldie"
At any rate, this phenomenon led me to coin a phrase which I termed a "breaking point" first quarter. The definition of a breaking-point quarter is a first quarter mile that is so fast that it is nearly impossible for a horse to "catch his breath" later in the race, no matter how slow the subsequent fractions, such that he will be able to show a representative finish. This is caused by an "oxygen debt" that cannot be rated out of the horse's system. (It also led me to coin a sort of term for this, which I dubbed loosely "dead man walking" or in this case, more properly, "dead horse racing." By this I meant that after the breaking-point quarter (or BPQ), the horse is apparently blissfully racing on the front end and the driver is expecting a good outcome, but unknown to him, and often the observers of the race, is that a time bomb will shortly explode in the form of a sudden and emphatic collapse of the animal. This timebomb was set in the first quarter and there is nothing that can stop it from exploding, with devastating effect to the horse in question.
Now. Some general statements about BPQ's: First, and possibly most importantly, a horse may be completely excused for a dismal overall performance IF he has suffered a BPQ. That is, these horses can be beaten 10 or 15 lengths in the race, but are a real threat to come back and win in their next event. Hence, wagering value. Second, I wish that races were timed in 1/8 increments instead of the usual 1/4 mile increments because I believe that there exists a "breaking point eighth" (BPE) as well as a BPQ. However, since they are not, we must rely on visual evidence to make such determinations. What we are looking for is somewhat of a rarity, but one which does recur with enough regularity that it pays to identify it. This situation is where a ferocious battle for the lead begins with the word "go" but is settled by the first 1/8 or shortly thereafter. At this point a file order is settled and the leader can begin to rate his horse. Since he has nearly an eighth of a mile to slow the animal down, the posted quarter-mile time may not look unusually fast. For example, let's consider a :28 first quarter. There is a vast difference between such a quarter that is rated :14, :14 and one that is rated :13.1, :14.4. The difference is such that the evenly rated :28 quarter may not result in a BPQ for the horse accomplishing it, but the :13.1 first eighth in the latter example may be a BPE from which the horse cannot regain his breath. Thirdly, a BPQ may actually prove theraputic to some horses in that it provides a good "tightner" for an upcoming race. What you want to avoid, however, is betting into a BPQ horse who was not race-tight when suffering it. For ex., horses in their first or second race off a layoff. In these cases, the BPQ may cause a "bounce" and the horse will race worse upon return. Fourthly, any angle which points out good fitness is most potent when the horse in question has apparently achieved a new and improved fitness level OR the horse in question had a unknown form which is now explained by the good effort following a BPQ. Examples of the latter are ship-in horses on which we may not have a good line; lightly-raced and/or "green" horses; horses who are getting over a breaking problem (which is a potent positive angle on its own, but when combined with a good BPQ effort may be outstanding); horses who have changed barns and whose form is therefore basically a mystery since we do not know for sure how the horse will perform in new hands; and even some horses who are switching drivers (provided that a single driver has been racing the horse for an extended period).
To sum up, we are seeking value in one of two ways: (1) totally excusing a poor overall effort in the face of a BPQ and (2) Getting extreme value from horses who have encountered a BPQ and still put in a representative overall
performance.
With this theoretical understanding of what we are looking for and why, the next step is the practical application, the nuts and bolts, so to speak. In other words, how do we identify BPQ's?
Clearly, each class must have a different BPQ, since for example, a :27 first quarter may be routine in some classes and a brutal BPQ in others. For this reason, we need a more universal way of determining a class-related BPQ and the way we do this is to use the first quarter as a percentage of the overall race time. The beauty of this is that it immediately adjusts for the class factor and for the overall speed variant for the track on a given card because even though the track may be very fast or very slow, the PERCENTAGES should remain constant.
To calculate the percentage of the overall race of the first quarter, break both down into fifths of a second and divide the fifths for the full race in to the fifths of the first quarter. Example: First quarter :28.1, overall race time 1:56.1. First quarter fifths are 28 x 5 +1 or 141. Full-mile fifths are (60+56) x 5 +1, or 116 x 5 +1 = 581. Divide 141 by 581 = 24.26%.
Now for the harder part. How do we determine what constitutes a BPQ? There are different ways to go about this but here's the simplest and as you work with these numbers, you may develop different ways to fine tune the process: Take a sampling of the first quarter percentages for 200 races at the track in question. Assume that roughly 10% of all races will feature a BPQ. This means that the lowest 20 first-Q percentages are likely BPQ's. Take the top end of that range and begin by assuming that anything under this percentage number is a BPQ. So let's say you find that the 20th lowest first Q percentage was 23.70%. This is a good place to start.
Next, test the percentage in the following way: First, horses who throw a first Q at or below the standard should show a STRONG negative effect to their overall effort, particularly in light of their closing odds. For ex., if a 50-1 horse expires following a BPQ, we should not be very surprised since at those odds he would probably have expired whatever the fractions. But when favorites or heavily-backed contenders are falling back following such quarters, we probably are safe in concluding that the standard is okay. Next, look at performances following the BPQ effort. If the horses are rebounding significantly, this is also evidence that the BPQ standard is good, since it indicates in general that the demanding first Q alone was responsible for the poorer-than-usual finish. (Of course, make sure that in the subsequent race, the horse was not AGAIN caught up in a BPQ). As you continue to use first-Q percentages, you may fine tune the % which you believe represents a BPQ standard for the track.
Once you have a workable standard, you need to check the first-Q track bias for each given race card. As I said earlier, this can fluctuate do to wind and other track conditions. To track it, you keep a set of the first Q percentages on each card. Often, you will find an abnormal distribution which may show more fast percentages or more slow percentages. These abnormalities can be confirmed by wind conditions and there are ways to do this without having the weather report. On mile tracks, for example, the first quarter is raced more or less in the same direction, which makes potential wind effects more potent. On 5/8 and 1/2 mile tracks, a smaller portion of the first quarter is raced in the same direction, which makes skewing effects due to wind a bit less of a problem. However, a strong enough wind can affect the first Q on any size track. On mile and 1/2 mile tracks, a wind-aided fast first Q will be followed by a FAST last Q as well. However, on 5/8 tracks, a wind-aided first Q will be followed by a SLOW last Q. This is due to the different configurations of such tracks. Look for these subsequent last quarter numbers on the race charts to confirm the wind aided or hindered first Q percentage.
At any rate, when we find an abnormal distribution of first Q percentages, we should alter our normal standard to reflect the abnormality. The easiest way to do this is to apply the normal deviation between the average first Q percentage and the normal BPQ percentage to the skewed average of the abnormal card. Example: Normal average first Q percentage 24.2%. Normal BPQ % is 23.7%. Normal difference .50%. Skewed average % might be 23.90%, let's say, and therfore, an adjusted BPQ would be 23.90 - .50 or 23.40%. So on this particular card, we would use 23.4% as a BPQ barrier. Same would hold true if the daily first Q percent was HIGHER than normal.
Now that we have established a way to determine a BPQ for an individual track and a way to adjust this BPQ percentage to given card conditions, we are ready to use the information to our advantage. Key to this is determining what the public thinks of a horse's prospects. The best way to assess this is by odds' position. Odds position tells us where the public thinks the horses should finish in a race- for ex., the favorite, by definition, is "expected" to win the race, the second choice is "expected" to finish second, the third favorite, is "expected" to finish third and so on.
Here's a stat that you can take straight to the bank: All horses who are first at the quarter in a BPQ time AND who finsh the race no worse than one (1) position WORSE than the public expected, will universally show a substantially positive ROI when bet to win in their upcoming event.
Now. I'm not a win bettor, as I have mentioned numerous times on this forum. However, this positive information is good for gimmick wagering as well as straight betting.
I know there are very few guys on here interested to read and absorb this, but hopefully some, like Lotta Kash will. I'm getting tired of typing right now, but if there are specific questions relating to this post, I'll get around to answering them. Just fire away.
Just got back on to the thread. Been a little busy. To answer some questions. I prefer 5/8 mile tracks to play, although I think that BPQ theory works well on most mile tracks as well with the possible exceptions of the Canadian large ovals and BMLP. I like BMLP for other handicapping considerations since I find that it is the best track for sheer power numbers that I have found. I can't play Canadian tracks because my ADW doesn't handle them and I get a very large rebate where I play, so my comments about handicapping speed there may not be correct, just my impression. it would take a specialist to answer that for sure.

One thing I forgot to mention in my earlier posts is to ignore consistent runaway horses that routinely post what would be considered BPQ's. These horses are used to this and it proves nothing about their current form, so multiple BPQ animals are off my list.

Been a lot of nice comments about my posts, but let's not get overly excited. This is just a small part of what you need for success in the game, which as we know is brutally difficult. Still, it may help some handicappers. I hope so.
AM
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Old 03-02-2014, 11:09 PM   #25
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Unfortunately, the horse will not qualify based on this.

All horses who are first at the quarter in a BPQ time AND who finsh the race no worse than one (1) position WORSE than the public expected, will universally show a substantially positive ROI when bet to win in their upcoming event.
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Old 03-03-2014, 12:00 AM   #26
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Originally Posted by imofe
Unfortunately, the horse will not qualify based on this.

All horses who are first at the quarter in a BPQ time AND who finsh the race no worse than one (1) position WORSE than the public expected, will universally show a substantially positive ROI when bet to win in their upcoming event.
You are correct imofe....That is what I thought too....Still AM1947 had the right idea, and that is what matters most, imo....That we are always thinking and analyzing the pace of each and every race, in the ongoing search for tidbits that may lead to tomorrow's scores...
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Old 03-03-2014, 12:30 AM   #27
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Originally Posted by am1947
LK

found this in my archieves

From Markgoldie"

........Been a lot of nice comments about my posts, but let's not get overly excited. This is just a small part of what you need for success in the game, which as we know is brutally difficult. Still, it may help some handicappers. I hope so.
AM
AM thx so much for reviving this archived post....

I had it on my old HD, that is, until my motherboard gave up early in 2013...I still have the HD and all of it contents intact, I just haven't gotten around to retrieving it yet....Hey, it' only been a year..haha...

But back to MARKGOLDIES "BPQ"....MG, gave me much to think about especially the BPQ aspect of assessing some pace scenarios...After I adopted it, I had been using the BPQ with modest success for a good while, but it became to tedious for me, what with me being strictly a P&P handicapper, and with so many tracks to screen each day....

But the BPQ aspect of pace was an inspiration to me, and so much so and that is how I came to invent the "PIPs"...Being the P&P guy, I was looking for ways to shortcut the math part of handicapping, and to create something that was just as effective, but simpler and quicker and easier to do....Thus the PIPs were born, and shortly thereafter I more or less abandoned the BPW formula....It was just killing my time, and created a distraction to me....But, in the end I think that it was a very good trade, even tho perhaps some accuracy may have been a l mite lost...Still, when I see a certain PIP pattern I will still do the BPQ to follow up on it....Just not on a grand scale as before tho...The PIPs seem to do nicely in most cases...

But, back to Markgoldie....You know, I really miss his postings....And, I often wonder what had become of him since his last posts...He was a very brightminded man, and he would share a laugh with you, as I believe that he didn't take himself as seriously as some of his also very intelligent like minded peers....I really admire that in a person,very....

Below I am going to offer a graphic....This matrix is a conglomeration of acronyms, that explain just about everything that I know to be of importance to the winning and losing of horseraces....From it I have created my own language, and if I explained in detail, the meaning and significance of each and every acronym, we could then have a dialogue using this language, without having to resort to square one explanations of things....I often daydream about getting these glyphs into a program....I truly believe it would be sumpin'... But I doubt that will ever happen, haha...

Still, the main reason that I am posting this graphic is to show you how much I thought of the BPQ aspect of pace-assessment....is all...

note: this chart is more than 2-years old, and has been revamped and revised since, but it is on that locked up HD...haha...

Look in the PACE-PATTERNS column and you will see BPQ...that's it...



Thx again AM...

Best,
Johnny U.
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Old 03-03-2014, 12:35 AM   #28
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Old 03-03-2014, 07:59 AM   #29
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LK & IMFOE,

Agree on your MG assessment LK ! He always presented great food for thought.

IMFOE my intent was to point out the value of that fast 1st Qtr and not
whether the horse should be a playback based upon that particular race.
You are correct about the 1 position worse then the public expected.
Because that horse got such an "ez lead" I was just trying to point out to
LK that is was indeed a very quick 1st QTR and a possible reason for the stretch falter.

LK I love your chart!
Question I have is that it almost looks like the additives for increasing mpg's for gasoline ....LOL
IMO it shows your creativity and determination.

Have a great and prosperous day,
AM
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Old 03-03-2014, 11:33 AM   #30
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Originally Posted by am1947
LK & IMFOE,
LK I love your chart!
Question I have is that it almost looks like the additives for increasing mpg's for gasoline ....LOL
Un-oh !...You found me out....I saw that in an old gas-station once...I knew it would come in handy one day...
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