Quote:
Originally Posted by HUSKER55
I am curious about value bets. Looking for a horse going off at odds higher than it should.
I am curious, suppose the public has 4 horses in a race at less than 4 to 1 and your pick is going off at 10 to 1 but you feel it should be 5:1 in an 8 horse field
if you bet that horse don't you have a 20% chance at a 10% strike.
The field is less than 4:1 which is 20% and your horse is about 10% so don't you really only have a 2% chance of winning against the field?
Could someone that does a good job of creating line odds provide a simple way of figuring that.
does the value of the other horses even enter the picture?
aNY BOOKS ON THIS TOPIC THAT MIGHT ASSIST ME?
thank you guys
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If you think the horse's odds are 5-1, then accordinly, he has a 16% chance of winning (1/(odds+1), regardless the field size and regardless what the odds on the other horses may be.
Warning. my experience has been that no matter what odds I make the horse, in the long run, the horse wins closer to the public probability.