Travers Stakes

[bobphilo]

Originally Posted by bobphilo

Thanks for the info.

According to Beyer's chart at 10 furlongs each second is work 8 points.
Here are to top 3 times by TRAKUS:
CB 2:01.76
M 2:02.67 (-.91 sec x 8 = - 7 pts)
B 2:02.91 (-1.15 sec) x 8 pts = -9 pts)

Therefore:
CB 104
M 97 (104-7)
B 95 (104-9)

These should be the figures according to Beyer's own formula

This shows that some of the original Beyer's I posted were incorrect
My original source was wrong. Sorry about that.

[clicknow]

Basically from a pedigree viewpoint the "stamina guys" didn't show up (vino, good magic, gronk, king zachary). would have been dfiferent at Belmont


I would bet king zachary back, the others probably not.

when I can't figure out a card looking at PPs, I move to other stuff. It helps my elimination process.

I tracked cds of horses who win the travers for a little over a decade, they all have CD around 65 which helped me find my winner candidates (who ran 1st and 3rd). Then you had the historicals i.e. castallano won this race more than anyone else in history, and calumet farms had very good stats in this race as well. Had to have 20 dosage points as well, as that was also apparent in the historicals (with only a few exceptions).

This helped me toss some horses in the race.

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by Robert Fischer

Questioning the results:
Good Magic looked 'off' from the break... The pace was not HOT and he should have been right up there with Catholic Boy and Mendelssohn. That was immediately weird. He ended up in some stalking trip as if this were run at a Mile with pace. Had some contact and never fired. He looked 3/2-8/5 as a STRONG favorite who figured to be comfortably closer to the pace, and he ran like a long shot.


Good Magic was very disappointing. Hopefully he can bounce back with any semblance of being a top contender, but there is some now some doubt. Flip a coin.
Nothing else inspired.

I don't know if you want to forgive Good Magic or not, but he took a slightly bad step at the break that put him 1/2 length behind the horses on ether side of him. The rider wound up easing back behind them instead of pushing and then getting hung out around 4 then 3 wide first turn being used a bit to get back into it. He was around 3 wide second turn when he got bumped between horses before eventually throwing in the towel.

I don't think that's the trip they hoped for.

Had he broken well, my guess is that he would have been in the top flight probably either hanging Catholic Boy out or forcing Catholic boy to work harder to get past him (or tuck in behind him).

I should add that some people though the track was playing to the inside couple of paths and speed both Friday and Saturday (more so Friday than Saturday). IMHO, any bias on Saturday wasn't dictating results. It was just one of those days that you were probably better off being in one of the inside paths and close up. It was harder than usual to sweep wide and rally for a win.

I'm not sure I'm going to totally toss the race, but he had no shot with that trip on that track. I just wish he would have run a little better than that. It's hard to be enthusiastic if the goal is the Classic.

[Tom]

Chad had a bad day overall.
Maybe his horses are on strike.

[Brass Hat]

Not relevant to the discussion of the race, but there was a brawl in the area where we sit during the race. I left to go watch the race from the turn, so I missed it thankfully, came back and the area was swarming with police. Alcohol involved, two people led out in handcuffs, one went to the hospital. Have never seen that there before, but did not surprise me when I heard about it, the group sitting in back of me were intoxicated and had a run-in with a husband-wife team from Philly likewise intoxicated.

Thought Mendelsohn ran a creditable race, no doubt aided by the way the track was playing, kudos to Gabby Gaudette who thought he had a shot. When I saw Tenfold at 15-1 I thought he was good value, despite drifting in his last race at 9 furlongs, suggesting he wouldn't get the distance. Not too bright.

[papillon]

Originally Posted by clicknow

Basically from a pedigree viewpoint the "stamina guys" didn't show up (vino, good magic, gronk, king zachary). would have been dfiferent at Belmont


I would bet king zachary back, the others probably not.

when I can't figure out a card looking at PPs, I move to other stuff. It helps my elimination process.

I tracked cds of horses who win the travers for a little over a decade, they all have CD around 65 which helped me find my winner candidates (who ran 1st and 3rd). Then you had the historicals i.e. castallano won this race more than anyone else in history, and calumet farms had very good stats in this race as well. Had to have 20 dosage points as well, as that was also apparent in the historicals (with only a few exceptions).

This helped me toss some horses in the race.

Just curious why you think Gronkowski is a stamina horse based on pedigree? He's a Lohnro. Lohnro throws sprinters. The Belmont is typically indictive of nothing. It's a weird race. What do you base their going the distance at Belmont, as opposed to SPA, on? GM has one run at Bemont last year at a one turn mile, came in 2nd. KZ, no races at Belmont. Vino Rosso, one race at Belmont, came in 4th. I'll give you Gronkowski, for now, guess we'll see in the JCGC.

Hard to tell from above, did you bet GM, VR, Grokowski, and KZ, or CB and Bravazzo? Or GM, VR, KZ, CB, G, B, which is half the field?

FWIW I finally figured out Bravazzo, he's just an all heart trier. Refuses to spit the bit. Gotta like a horse like him. Sort of the equine version of Lukas. CB seemed pretty straightforward to me, he was the fastest horse with proven form in the race. And he doesn't like to lose. Plus his damn is a Bernardini. Bernardini DNA is a lock at the SPA.

Anywho, just curious.

[papillon]

Originally Posted by classhandicapper

I don't know if you want to forgive Good Magic or not, but he took a slightly bad step at the break that put him 1/2 length behind the horses on ether side of him. The rider wound up easing back behind them instead of pushing and then getting hung out around 4 then 3 wide first turn being used a bit to get back into it. He was around 3 wide second turn when he got bumped between horses before eventually throwing in the towel.

I don't think that's the trip they hoped for.

Had he broken well, my guess is that he would have been in the top flight probably either hanging Catholic Boy out or forcing Catholic boy to work harder to get past him (or tuck in behind him).

I should add that some people though the track was playing to the inside couple of paths and speed both Friday and Saturday (more so Friday than Saturday). IMHO, any bias on Saturday wasn't dictating results. It was just one of those days that you were probably better off being in one of the inside paths and close up. It was harder than usual to sweep wide and rally for a win.

I'm not sure I'm going to totally toss the race, but he had no shot with that trip on that track. I just wish he would have run a little better than that. It's hard to be enthusiastic if the goal is the Classic.

Too funny.

That trip cost the best 3yo still racing 9 places? Man that had to be some bad trip. Must have been knocked sideways off his feet, squeezed, rushed up, squeezed again, and eased. Not sure how I missed that, but I'll go back and watch it again.

So his stablemate had a horrendous trip as well?

[Tom]

That's much what the trainer said - track was not conducive to horses making up ground. Bad break and it was pretty much over.

[bobphilo]

Originally Posted by Tom

That's much what the trainer said - track was not conducive to horses making up ground. Bad break and it was pretty much over.

Yeah sure. The track had some magical ability to recognize the hooves of the front runners running on it and helped them and the same surface just as magically recognized the hooves of the the closers and hindered them when they tried to make their late moves.
It does make more sense that the inside paths surface could be faster than the outside and, since most front runners are on the inside, have an advantage over closers on the outside. No magical thinking about "speed bias" needed. The possibility of rail biases does make sense..
Not saying that was the case at the Spa on Sat.

[dilanesp]

Originally Posted by papillon

Too funny.

That trip cost the best 3yo still racing 9 places? Man that had to be some bad trip. Must have been knocked sideways off his feet, squeezed, rushed up, squeezed again, and eased. Not sure how I missed that, but I'll go back and watch it again.

So his stablemate had a horrendous trip as well?

I will say one thing about Good Magic..There is certainly a such a thing as a race too bad to be believed. Alysheba ran one in the Travers and then came back with a win in the Super Derby and a nose loss in the BC Classic.

So nothing wrong with throwing this race out and expecting better..Thing is, he still needed to step forward to be competitive with the older horses and he hasn't done so yet.

[burnsy]

Saw the guy in hand cuffs after the race, going to first aid, He looked like he lost...…..


This is the dumbest article I've ever read and the guy is an expert?
Sounds like some of you guys.

https://www.horseracingnation.com/ne...rs_Stakes_123#

Its Ryan Moore's fault for being aggressive and taking the lead. Apparently, Jocks don't learn the "clock" anymore. Plus, they weren't privy to the track favoring speed, which it does about 5 days a week. "Euro" tactics changed the race...….duhhhhh….lol...lol. OK, you gotta be kidding me, the two horses that ran well, have banked millions. Its their fault for grabbing the lead and pulling away...…...

Newsflash, hardly no one closed Saturday genius. So you want to blame the aggressive guys?

[Robert Fischer]

Originally Posted by burnsy

Saw the guy in hand cuffs after the race, going to first aid, He looked like he lost...…..


This is the dumbest article I've ever read and the guy is an expert?
Sounds like some of you guys.

https://www.horseracingnation.com/ne...rs_Stakes_123#

Its Ryan Moore's fault for being aggressive and taking the lead. Apparently, Jocks don't learn the "clock" anymore. Plus, they weren't privy to the track favoring speed, which it does about 5 days a week. "Euro" tactics changed the race...….duhhhhh….lol...lol. OK, you gotta be kidding me, the two horses that ran well, have banked millions. Its their fault for grabbing the lead and pulling away...…...

Newsflash, hardly no one closed Saturday genius. So you want to blame the aggressive guys?

I may not be on board with the theory yet, but at least he's thinking, Burnsy.

Makes some interesting comments about the pace rhythm.

If I'm skimming his article accurately; the issue I have with the logic is that his Euro-brakes incident occurs basically once they are approaching/entering the 1st turn. .

Even the great Arrogate's 2nd 1/4 is going to be slower than the first due to the track configuration. If it were 9F breaking right near the turn, we'd see the reverse.

Arrogate is awesome(2016 Travers winner Arrogate), but the 2017 Travers featuring West Coast was actually more similar. West Coast didn't get as tired(not that Catholic Boy looked fatigued relative to Mendelssoh) in the final quarter, but the 'pace rhythm' stuff is pretty similar.

CATHOLIC BOY RACE BRK23.30 1STTURN24.51 24.16 24.32 25.65
WEST COAST RACE ..BRK23.82 1STTURN24.30 24.11 24.59 24.37


If you have tactical speed it can translate to good position into the first turn going 10F Saratoga (as opposed to 'post position' and the break itself holding more weight in a 9F Saratoga race gate configuration).


Essentially Catholic Boy and Mendelssohn had a 'head start' due to their aggressive tactics and the vacuum created by the absence of Trigger Warning(triggered a meltdown), and Good Magic('poof').

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by papillon

Too funny.

That trip cost the best 3yo still racing 9 places? Man that had to be some bad trip. Must have been knocked sideways off his feet, squeezed, rushed up, squeezed again, and eased. Not sure how I missed that, but I'll go back and watch it again.

So his stablemate had a horrendous trip as well?

To be honest, it's difficult for me to quantify a trip like that because sometimes it's not 100% clear if a bias exists or how strong it was if it did. Horses are also not uniform. They are impacted differently depending on their degree of natural speed vs. stamina and how they were used.

I don't think any inside or speed bias was particularly strong Saturday, but losing a ton of ground that day was definitely a disadvantage. Given that Good Magic was slightly suspicious as to his true desire to run 10F, my guess is that being left further back than desired and then trying to get back into while wide took a bigger toll on him than it might have for a horse that truly loved the distance.

All told, imo, it's 1000% certain his trip was a contributing factor to his poor showing. I'll leave it up to everyone else to determine how much was the track and trip vs. how much was him not running his "A" race.

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by dilanesp

So nothing wrong with throwing this race out and expecting better..Thing is, he still needed to step forward to be competitive with the older horses and he hasn't done so yet.

That's his biggest problem. To compete with the big boys he had to get better. Excuse or not, he clearly didn't get better.

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by bobphilo

Yeah sure. The track had some magical ability to recognize the hooves of the front runners running on it and helped them and the same surface just as magically recognized the hooves of the the closers and hindered them when they tried to make their late moves.

When speed/closer biases exist they have little or nothing to do with magical hooves, but they may have something to do with how tiring the surface is, the relationship between speed/stamina the horse has, how the horse distributes his energy, and how much kickback the horses near the front are whacking the closers in the face with given the moisture content and makeup of the track that day.