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10-11-2016, 09:20 PM
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#1651
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Authorized Advertiser
Join Date: Dec 2014
Location: Oakland, Ca
Posts: 7,953
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This is the puzzling part--this looks like a perfectly executed betting coup.
Except one thing--why didn't they BET? No one bet!
2 races back---perfect fade start to finish after a win. Then last race--fade and perfect EVEN FINISH.
Today, back in 14 days and UP IN CLASS. But no one bet. This is just mind boggling. The last two races--those are no "accident" ....the only thing I can think of--the horse wasn't supposed to win today. The plan might have been to go 4F on the pace, and give it up right there---drop down and get the win at a nice price. Anyone think of a more plausible story?
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10-11-2016, 09:45 PM
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#1652
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Buckle Up
Join Date: Apr 2014
Posts: 10,614
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by NorCalGreg
This is the puzzling part--this looks like a perfectly executed betting coup.
Except one thing--why didn't they BET? No one bet!
2 races back---perfect fade start to finish after a win. Then last race--fade and perfect EVEN FINISH.
Today, back in 14 days and UP IN CLASS. But no one bet. This is just mind boggling. The last two races--those are no "accident" ....the only thing I can think of--the horse wasn't supposed to win today. The plan might have been to go 4F on the pace, and give it up right there---drop down and get the win at a nice price. Anyone think of a more plausible story?
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Let's put it this way.... If I was convinced that it was in fact a clever offshore betting coup---I wouldn't post it in on a message board.
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10-11-2016, 10:32 PM
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#1653
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Authorized Advertiser
Join Date: Dec 2014
Location: Oakland, Ca
Posts: 7,953
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by ReplayRandall
Let's put it this way.... If I was convinced that it was in fact a clever offshore betting coup---I wouldn't post it in on a message board.
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Pretty cryptic post there, RR. Who does that and leaves a ton of money on the table right here?
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10-11-2016, 10:38 PM
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#1654
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Buckle Up
Join Date: Apr 2014
Posts: 10,614
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by NorCalGreg
Pretty cryptic post there, RR. Who does that and leaves a ton of money on the table right here?
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Your version of the term "ton of money", is quite different from what's going on outside our borders....
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10-12-2016, 06:41 AM
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#1655
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NoPoints4ME
Join Date: Sep 2013
Posts: 9,854
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by bruin95
I want to know how a horse that's 10-1 on the ML goes off at 150-1. That track is ridiculous. I've never made a bet there ever. Maybe I should start.  |
Maybe no robotic wagering there? Maybe due to lack of interest in the small pools? More reason to play PM!
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10-12-2016, 09:56 AM
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#1656
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what an easy game.
Join Date: Dec 2002
Posts: 43,096
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by EMD4ME
Maybe no robotic wagering there? Maybe due to lack of interest in the small pools? More reason to play PM!
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the value in that race was the triple
actual pay out was $2571, expected was $1914. a 1.34 return
also
the mutual pool was $9884, say 64 % of that was in the win pool.
the winner's track odds was 152 -1 then amount bet on the winner in the win pool was (1/(152+1)) X.83 x $9884 x .64 =$34.
there was appox $34 bet on that horse to win.
Check me out
Always like to know if I got my numbers right
__________________
Peace on earth, good will to all
GOD BLESS AMERICA
" I pass with relief from the tossing sea of cause and theory to the firm ground of result and fact"
Winston Churchill
Last edited by formula_2002; 10-12-2016 at 10:03 AM.
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10-12-2016, 10:21 AM
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#1657
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Authorized Advertiser
Join Date: Dec 2014
Location: Oakland, Ca
Posts: 7,953
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by ReplayRandall
Your version of the term "ton of money", is quite different from what's going on outside our borders....
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I've never bet any offshore books...but they aren't going to take large amounts on some obscure horse at Portland Meadows, in any pool...are they?
Looking at F_2002's numbers, it wouldn't take much ---betting on-track, to get it down to 10-1. You have no real way of knowing this for sure before the race goes off, but if you stuck a $50 on the winner you would get what the $2 tri paid, $5k---without all the "wasted" bets---because you didn't know who would be 2nd and 3rd.
I just thought this was strange. Who know what the connections had up their sleeve?
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10-12-2016, 10:27 AM
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#1658
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Registered Loser
Join Date: Apr 2002
Posts: 2,633
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by NorCalGreg
I just thought this was strange. Who know what the connections had up their sleeve?
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In their wildest dreams they would never think that they could get 150-1, so you would think that if there was betting by the connections that they would have bet more money on the horse. I think it was a fluke win, nothing devious.
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10-12-2016, 11:05 AM
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#1659
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Authorized Advertiser
Join Date: Dec 2014
Location: Oakland, Ca
Posts: 7,953
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by jk3521
In their wildest dreams they would never think that they could get 150-1, so you would think that if there was betting by the connections that they would have bet more money on the horse. I think it was a fluke win, nothing devious.
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That's what I'm saying Joe...there wasn't any betting by the connections. $34?
That was 3 people betting their kid's birthdays. I really think EMD is right, there aren't many sharpies there. Think the reason simulcast bettors avoid PMX is because it's like the freakin RAIN FOREST, usually.
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10-12-2016, 11:50 AM
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#1660
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Authorized Advertiser
Join Date: Dec 2014
Location: Oakland, Ca
Posts: 7,953
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Last edited by NorCalGreg; 10-12-2016 at 11:51 AM.
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10-12-2016, 12:58 PM
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#1661
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Authorized Advertiser
Join Date: Dec 2014
Location: Oakland, Ca
Posts: 7,953
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Only see a couple TOP-4 ABILITY plays--both @ Remmie. One... SILVER DODDGE is listed ML 20-1. No way that horse gets anywhere near 20-1. I've noticed some unusual ML's there sometimes....two horses will be very low odds, and all the rest all over 10-1. Take a look at today's 7th race to see what I mean.
Anyway SILVER DODDGE is the top Ability horse OF THE DAY, which by itself isn't earth-shattering--he ranks high on class and speed, which is the hallmark of top ability horses. In his PP's his last race shows a pattern I call "WRL"
I'll show it next.
Also here's Thistledown's Best Bet's for the heck of it---you can bet your rent money on these (that sounds familiar )
Oh I remember what I wanted to throw out there---when making a "conditional bet"...at the top is "0" okay that is when there is zero minutes to post--but right above that is this ( - ) a hyphen. I tested it---you can actually send that in. Was wondering is that when the horses are breaking? Does anyone know?
I got hijacked by DRF bets and can't even get to my XB acct anymore (don't ask)....so whenever I either get an appreciable amount to draw out--or get to zero---I'm done with them, that's why I don't bother to call and ask. I prefer Twinspires---XB is just a backup acct
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Last edited by NorCalGreg; 10-12-2016 at 01:01 PM.
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10-12-2016, 01:54 PM
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#1662
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Authorized Advertiser
Join Date: Dec 2014
Location: Oakland, Ca
Posts: 7,953
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Missed one @ GPW---BTW, I solved the mystery of the conditional ( - ) hyphen bet. I thought I had sent one in, but when I tried again, it wouldn't take it.
So in summary............nevermind
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Last edited by NorCalGreg; 10-12-2016 at 01:59 PM.
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10-12-2016, 03:49 PM
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#1663
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Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2010
Posts: 2,176
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by NorCalGreg
Only see a couple TOP-4 ABILITY plays--both @ Remmie. One... SILVER DODDGE is listed ML 20-1. No way that horse gets anywhere near 20-1. I've noticed some unusual ML's there sometimes....two horses will be very low odds, and all the rest all over 10-1. Take a look at today's 7th race to see what I mean.
Anyway SILVER DODDGE is the top Ability horse OF THE DAY, which by itself isn't earth-shattering--he ranks high on class and speed, which is the hallmark of top ability horses. In his PP's his last race shows a pattern I call "WRL"
I'll show it next.
Also here's Thistledown's Best Bet's for the heck of it---you can bet your rent money on these (that sounds familiar )
Oh I remember what I wanted to throw out there---when making a "conditional bet"...at the top is "0" okay that is when there is zero minutes to post--but right above that is this ( - ) a hyphen. I tested it---you can actually send that in. Was wondering is that when the horses are breaking? Does anyone know?
I got hijacked by DRF bets and can't even get to my XB acct anymore (don't ask)....so whenever I either get an appreciable amount to draw out--or get to zero---I'm done with them, that's why I don't bother to call and ask. I prefer Twinspires---XB is just a backup acct
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I'm having similar issues with Hollywoodraces.com. I used ebetusa for years, with no problems and Hollywood bought out ebetusa. I can sign in and can't see my funds or open any pages. All blank except their homepage. Luckily, my ebetusa account is linked with Penn Natl gaming, so I can use card at OTB. Can't even open the contact page with phone numbers on it.
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10-12-2016, 04:38 PM
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#1664
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Registered User
Join Date: Aug 2007
Location: Benton, La.
Posts: 1,841
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on a conditional bet the -1 is one minute after post and so on. Depending on the track it takes a minute or more to load in the gate. Some tracks run close to post time and some are behind. You can set you bet to go in at 3 or 4 minutes after post to avoid late odds changes but the later you set you bets the more the chance of getting shut out. Most of the video you are watching is on a slight delay. You just have to watch the track you are playing and see how close to post time they usually go off. With 30 seconds or a minute after post you are usually ok but it gets risky after that.
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10-12-2016, 04:51 PM
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#1665
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Registered User
Join Date: Aug 2007
Location: Benton, La.
Posts: 1,841
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Playing BTP today, clicking on the #1#2 power tab, had 1 horse for the day at over 10/1 ML. 7th race Wish to Opine, paid 36.00. Anybody tried just playing these #1#2 power horses at 10+ ML?
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