Sunday, GP Race 9 - Horse Racing Forum - PaceAdvantage.Com

BigJake · 01-31-2010, 05:28 PM

Will someone look at this race and tell me how the 4 horse goes off at 40-1?

hbeck · 01-31-2010, 05:50 PM

Perhaps because she doesn't seem to like to win and the odds on the board are the win pool odds. She ran excellent but was never going to win the race, as usual. She's finished 2nd 7 of 15 races now, with two wins.

BigJake · 01-31-2010, 06:02 PM

$30.20 to place?
$13 to show ?

These prices for a horse that never finishes out of the money (12 of 14) and has raced graded company in the past. I am not a big student of bettor mentality, but I know people on this site really watch the tote board and bettor trends.

only11 · 01-31-2010, 06:39 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by hbeck

Perhaps because she doesn't seem to like to win and the odds on the board are the win pool odds. She ran excellent but was never going to win the race, as usual. She's finished 2nd 7 of 15 races now, with two wins.

Great point she was 50-1 to win the race.

dansan · 01-31-2010, 07:31 PM

Ive noticed lots of chalk bettors on this board thats how that horse went off at 40-1 be thankful they are so generous

OTM Al · 01-31-2010, 07:38 PM

I loved the 4 and 13 underneath only. Unfortunately I loved Bickersons not at all and keyed the 7 on top of my exacta (7/4+13) and tri (7/3+4+6+13)....the 4 should be long odds in a win pool as it does not win, but is should always be bet well underneath. I love horses like the 4 as an exacta bettor. One look tells me a horse like that must be used underneath.

BigJake · 01-31-2010, 08:35 PM

Well it made my day today! It showed up as a win bet in my spreadsheet, but looking at the run lines I knew it wasn't likely to win. I don't bet show very often, but I did here. $13 to show on a horse that never finishes out of the money. I should have bet more. I really couldn't understand it. I guess it is just one that slipped through. Doesn't happen very often. Good to get them when they do.

CincyHorseplayer · 01-31-2010, 08:45 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by hbeck

Perhaps because she doesn't seem to like to win and the odds on the board are the win pool odds. She ran excellent but was never going to win the race, as usual. She's finished 2nd 7 of 15 races now, with two wins.

Wow.What an excellent backwheel candidate in the exacta!!!

$682.40 with a 9-1 shot.

CincyHorseplayer · 01-31-2010, 08:47 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by OTM Al

I loved the 4 and 13 underneath only. Unfortunately I loved Bickersons not at all and keyed the 7 on top of my exacta (7/4+13) and tri (7/3+4+6+13)....the 4 should be long odds in a win pool as it does not win, but is should always be bet well underneath. I love horses like the 4 as an exacta bettor. One look tells me a horse like that must be used underneath.

I use a lot of value horses in backwheels when they are at absurd odds like this as well.

OTM Al · 02-01-2010, 09:07 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by CincyHorseplayer

I use a lot of value horses in backwheels when they are at absurd odds like this as well.

I've never learned how to do this fortunately or unfortunately. In this case it sure would have paid, but then I can think of many others where it would just be an expensive flop. I do have to say though that like many others I think I have more problems with how to bet rather than who. Gotta keep working my way along that learning curve I guess.

CincyHorseplayer · 02-01-2010, 09:38 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by OTM Al

I've never learned how to do this fortunately or unfortunately. In this case it sure would have paid, but then I can think of many others where it would just be an expensive flop. I do have to say though that like many others I think I have more problems with how to bet rather than who. Gotta keep working my way along that learning curve I guess.

For me it's been a constant reocurrence from my oddslines.The overlays on my oddslines win about 25% of the time but place sometimes upwards of 50%.I've learned to play them bottom heavy in exactas in addition to making a 1% win bet(or 2% depending on where it sits on the line).The going off odds make the decisions for you.These types usually make up "fish in a barrel" exactas with favorites.It's been a staple of my game since 2002.

OTM Al · 02-01-2010, 09:48 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by CincyHorseplayer

For me it's been a constant reocurrence from my oddslines.The overlays on my oddslines win about 25% of the time but place sometimes upwards of 50%.I've learned to play them bottom heavy in exactas in addition to making a 1% win bet(or 2% depending on where it sits on the line).The going off odds make the decisions for you.These types usually make up "fish in a barrel" exactas with favorites.It's been a staple of my game since 2002.

On this specific case I was trying to do something along that line. I generally play narrow exactas in the following way A//B+C plus an (A+B) box. The 4 in this race was the obvious and best kind of "C" as it doesn't win but is a board hitting machine. I didn't like anyone as a B though. If the 13 wouldn't have been coming out of that hole, I probably would have used her as the B, but I didn't think the post could be overcome so I doubled the A//B+C and dropped the box. I threw in the tri just in case the favorite managed to split me, which is about the only time I will play a tri. I just hate heavy spreading, which may or may not be a problem. That is one I'm still trying to figure. Regardless, I hated the winner of this race and never would have used her in any case.