Lessons from a pro

[DeanT]

Originally Posted by thaskalos

I have overheard, and also participated in, many conversations at racetracks and OTBs over my many years playing this game.

I think that is why Thask. You are fishing in the wrong pond.

I remember back in the early 1990's. A friend bought a team to win the Super Bowl at 60-1 or something, and they went on a win streak. He bought it in Vegas and I think they went down to 10-1 or something. He saw he had value, but had no way to sell some.

He was beginning his career as a stock broker. And he thought how great it was to have a market for that, like an Ebay or what have you.

It was similar back in the 1980's when I went to the track. After a leg or two of a pick 4 or pick 7 (we had pick 7s at our track) inevitably the same guys each week would scurry around the grandstand wanting to sell their live tickets and piece them out. There was no way after a leg or two to put a dollar amount on it, other than creating a market and have people bidding.

Often times they would sell a quarter or a half for $400 or something.

Any bet we make, whether it be on gold, silver, oil, or a bet at a track, can have value over time. Anything that has value over time, is ripe for trading like a stock market.

The World Sports Exchange proved it in the mid 90's. They were created by two option traders on the Pacific Stock Exchange.

Later on, Betfair did it to perfection with their market. If you have a really good odds line and buy a horse at 6-1, who you think is going to be 3-1 at close, you have built in tradable value, and if you are good, and there is liquidity, you can end up, by trading having a horse on the board at 3-1, with a 25% chance to win, at 12 or 14-1.

If I ask 100 players at the OTB if they are interested in that - 99 would say no. But we should not care about them in this, because they are already playing horse racing via the pools. We need to look outside those 100 people, to grow the sport. You can not fish for trout in a pond filled with bass.

[PaceAdvantage]

Originally Posted by thaskalos

Oh...I see. You and Charlie can have fun, but I can't...

And this is precisely why I moderate as I do.

My moderation style is designed to avoid the kind of stuff we have had going on in this thread over the past handful of replies. I like to think that has contributed to the ongoing popularity of this website.

'Nuff said.

[thaskalos]

Dean...

I understand what you are saying, and believe me, it doesn't bother me in the least to discuss ANY form of gambling OR investing.

I play the horses seriously, but I also have money interests outside of the racetrack.

My post was placed in jest...and I am surprised that it drew PA's ire.

[thaskalos]

Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage

And this is precisely why I moderate as I do.

My moderation style is designed to avoid the kind of stuff we have had going on in this thread over the past handful of replies. I like to think that has contributed to the ongoing popularity of this website.

'Nuff said.

Did I ever criticize you or your site?

Has it ever occurred to you that you have a very thin skin...for a guy who loves to "needle" people as much as you do?

[PaceAdvantage]

Originally Posted by thaskalos

Did I ever criticize you or your site?

Has it ever occurred to you that you have a very thin skin...for a guy who loves to "needle" people as much as you do?

Yes, you did. You criticized the fact that Charlie and I were having fun while I was not allowing you to have any...whatever that means.

And if I had a thin skin, this site wouldn't exist.

The longer you continue to reply to me on this ongoing saga, the more my point is proven and my moderation style vindicated.

[BUD]

Originally Posted by DeanT

There is a nice overlap with stock trading and horse racing and to me it is always on topic.

I have not met a serious player who would spend hours analyzing slot play, but I have met a pile who analyze moving averages. I think racing has a hard time knowing that we are different from other gamblers.

Betfair is cool because it attracts those players. Players scalp horse racing markets and so on, using moving averages and arb etc. Futures wagers are pure speculation as well, not unlike playing the futures markets.

Targeting stock trading types, and building bets/exchanges for them, could really help racing in my opinion.

Hey---It was You Dean Who shown me the value of an eagle eye on Betfair---Still use that Gauge as Play or pass----Damned hard to get BetFair Statesde---Has TVG made that easier-???----

OK-RESUME--

[PaceAdvantage]

Hey Bud...nice to see you posting again....

[lansdale]

Originally Posted by Dick Schmidt

"Hi Dick,

Much thanks for your input. In the last year or so, I've also begun to conclude that horserace handicapping is reaching the point of no return, and am looking for alternatives. One trader I know, one of the former Turtles, has recommended getting involved with Forex, and has done pretty well himself, although his background is extensive. Would be grateful for any insight on the degree of difficulty and time investment involved.

Cheers,

lansdale"


Sorry not to answer promptly, but I don't visit every day and didn't see your post until tonight. Like in racing, the degree of difficulty is high. It demands all your attention and focus, plus lots of study and practice. Most people fail, but those who have survived the rigors of racing may find it less demanding. I did. Also, I was used to losing lots of my bets, so I didn't have the need to win every trade that gets so many in trouble. Careful of the system sellers; their ethics are on the same level as race track touts.

Time commitment is MUCH less. I normally trade for 2-3 hours a day (starting at midnight west coast time, when the London market opens. Forex is still a European game). I do play with stuff during the day when the mood strikes, and I used a practice account for 3 months to get started (this is free) but now I just keep doing what works for me and grind out a nice living.

I am also a member of a group called 4XLA that teaches and discusses Forex trading. They develop software (its all free) and keep each other informed on what's working. Sometimes I lead an online webinar doing live trading to show how I use the software (several of us take turns, again free). I would find a good Forex club and start attending. I think you'll find many people eager to help you get started. The Forex market is so huge that no one worried about competition. Retail traders (us) make up about 5% of the market world wide, which right now is averaging 3.5 Billion dollars a day. Fun stuff.

Dick

The final test of a gentleman is his respect for those who can be of no possible service to him.

Hi Dick,

Much thanks once again for this detailed reply, and I too, am sorry for the delayed response. Thanks also for the contribution you've made to handicapping over the years, which has benefitted not only myself, but I would guess, a number of others who are members of this site.

Cheers,

lansdale

[BMeadow]

Dick Schmidt wrote this:

" I bet the pick 3s in both Northern and Southern California every day for about 2 years and ALWAYS made exactly the same bet... I was playing 6 races a day at both NoCal and SoCal, or 60 races a week...I showed a consistent 60% ROI over two years with my unstructured bad bets."

Usually I just ignore these types of posts, figuring no one would take this stuff seriously, but since Dick did mention my name, I figured I'd throw in my two cents:

Let's assume betting six pick 3's per day (in California they're rolling pick 3's, so you can bet races 2-3-4, 3-4-5, etc.), or just three per track per day. Certainly many players bet more pick 3's than that.

Let's also assume a measly $10 pick 3, which would cost $270 using the 3 x 3 x 3 method described in the post. Again, many players bet more.

Let's assume 300 betting days per year.

A player doing this would bet $486,000 per year on pick 3's. Assuming no rebates, a player with a 60% ROI would win $291,000 per year on pick 3's alone.

And then such a player says he quit doing this because, uh, why?

These kinds of boasts remind me of the claim in Pace Makes The Race (the Howard Sartin book) that Sartin took a group of truck drivers who had gambling addictions, taught them to win, and as soon as they learned how to win, they went back to driving trucks. Who on Planet Earth could actually believe such a thing?

A co-author of Pace Makes The Race was Dick Schmidt. Coincidence?

Maybe Dick Schmidt is a terrific handicapper and a winning player; I would have no way of knowing this, one way or the other, so I'm not speaking to that question. But the numbers don't add up.

[Trotman]

Barry, exactly his math wasn't even a head scratcher.

[46zilzal]

Originally Posted by BMeadow

These kinds of boasts remind me of the claim in Pace Makes The Race (the Howard Sartin book) that Sartin took a group of truck drivers who had gambling addictions, taught them to win, and as soon as they learned how to win, they went back to driving trucks. Who on Planet Earth could actually believe such a thing?

.

No he helped them with their addictions

[thaskalos]

Originally Posted by 46zilzal

No he helped them with their addictions

Yeah...as I recall, their problem was not that they were addicted to gambling...they were addicted to LOSING.

Once the good doctor showed them the way to win...their addictions naturally vanished...and they were able to go back to living fruitful lives.

[46zilzal]

Originally Posted by thaskalos

Yeah...as I recall, their problem was not that they were addicted to gambling...they were addicted to LOSING.

Once the good doctor showed them the way to win...their addictions naturally vanished...and they were able to go back to living fruitful lives.

Howard Sartin was a modern day Phineas T. Barnum who changed the game forever. People are always trying to knock him down, but WHAT have you changed on a national scene like he did?

[Charlie D]

Originally Posted by 46zilzal

Howard Sartin was a modern day Phineas T. Barnum who changed the game forever. People are always trying to knock him down, but WHAT have you changed on a national scene like he did?

Would it not be correct to say, Andy Beyer and Howard Sartin did this??

[thaskalos]

Originally Posted by 46zilzal

Howard Sartin was a modern day Phineas T. Barnum who changed the game forever. People are always trying to knock him down, but WHAT have you changed on a national scene like he did?

I was not referring to his handicapping contributions...I was responding to your post that he was able to cure gambling addictions.

Has anybody kept track of those formerly "addicted" truck drivers?

46zilzal...you appear to be an expert in everything Sartin...do you have any idea what his initial group of "winners" is currently up to?