Trifecta payoff? Tampa Bay Down R2 2/6 - Horse Racing Forum - PaceAdvantage.Com

hbeck · 02-06-2010, 08:00 PM

Does this trifecta seem reasonable to you guys? The exacta was definitely short.

See PDF attachment for chart.

johnhannibalsmith · 02-06-2010, 08:50 PM

Roughly 35 winning tickets sold with a $100 winner and a 3-5 shot that missed the ticket... yeah... kind of hard to fathom, I suppose, but as you noted - the exacta is probably even more damning in a way and given that the runner-up was a shipper from Calder, it isn't entirely unreasonable to think that it was the runner-up that was a key play on a lot of tickets that just lucked into getting a dandy winner. I'm not sure what the form looks like on that horse that came in from Calder, but it looks as though he took a fair amount of money in the context of that field.

hbeck · 02-06-2010, 08:52 PM

Thanks for your thoughts. I had it for $1 and was dissapointed.

johnhannibalsmith · 02-06-2010, 08:58 PM

I guess the best question to ask is - how did you come up with it?

therussmeister · 02-06-2010, 09:17 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by johnhannibalsmith

Roughly 35 winning tickets sold with a $100 winner and a 3-5 shot that missed the ticket... yeah... kind of hard to fathom,

Actually, there would be $60 bet on it.

johnhannibalsmith · 02-06-2010, 09:24 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by therussmeister

Actually, there would be $60 bet on it.

Right... geez - I thought that was a $1 payout... and was guessing on the rake while using the roundest numbers I could compute quickly to meet the pool size... good catch...

boomman · 02-06-2010, 09:29 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by hbeck

Does this trifecta seem reasonable to you guys? The exacta was definitely short.

See PDF attachment for chart.

Sorry h: You can "blame" me, as it was released as one of my "favorite busters" exacta plays on the sheet today in which it is one of the most likely races in North America (we had 8 today) to beat a very short price favorite. We have averaged beating the favorite 82% of the time on these plays out of the 1st position and 62% of the time out of the 2nd position. See other thread on PA started by Lambo Guy:

BOOMER"S PLAYS

Boomer

bisket · 02-06-2010, 10:01 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by hbeck

Does this trifecta seem reasonable to you guys? The exacta was definitely short.

See PDF attachment for chart.

i play trifecta's all the time, and i've adjusted the way i play them just recently and i've found that its much more profitable for me. my method up until about 6-7 months ago was to play alot of wheels. take the most likely winner and wheel him with a bunch of others in the 2 and 3 holes. even if i had a line on say a second place finisher. put him as a single in the 2 hole and wheel 2 or 3 horses in the 1 and 3 holes. what i've noticed is this is the preffered method of most of the public. so your returns by playing this method tend to be smaller and negatively effects my roi. what i've started doing recently is narrowing my plays to either 3 or 4 horses and boxing them. if your higher odds horses come in first and the fav is out of the money thwe payout is astronomically better!!!! roi is much better boxing because the public is afraid to play 15-1 in the 1 hole!!! even if 1,2, and 3 are between say 3-1 and 8-1 and 6/5 finishes out of the money your payout is much higher. bottom line if you see your pick finishing third the amount of times he will get up for first may be small, but it pays to play it now!!

Zman179 · 02-06-2010, 10:25 PM

I didn't think the exacta came up too short. Trifecta could have paid a grand more, but I certainly didn't see any shenanigans in the payoffs.

menifee · 02-07-2010, 01:43 AM

No, I would have estimated that for the price. The bigger mystery is how they bet the 8 to less than even money after its last performance.

monistee · 02-07-2010, 06:49 AM

I thought it would pay around $5000. I would have been very happy to cash that ticket. But in the back of my mind, I would of thought I should of made more! The main thing is you went home as a winner!

Stillriledup · 02-07-2010, 06:54 AM

Funny how the winner won by a neck and the equibase chart says "easily"

The tri paid ok i think. The key might be the 'vulnerability' of the 4-5 shot. Sometimes when a 4-5 is 'weak' some big bettors can box 8 horses in the tri for 336 bucks. Maybe there was just enough bettors who thought the fave was weak and took a shot at a big price. There also was a 136-1 shot in the race, so that effectively made it a 9 horse field and not 10. It could have paid a few hundred more, but i think the price was fair enough.

only11 · 02-07-2010, 07:40 AM

[QUOTE=boomman]Sorry h: You can "blame" me, as it was released as one of my "favorite busters" exacta plays on the sheet today in which it is one of the most likely races in North America (we had 8 today) to beat a very short price favorite. We have averaged beating the favorite 82% of the time on these plays out of the 1st position and 62% of the time out of the 2nd position. See other thread on PA started by Lambo Guy:

BOOMER"S PLAYS

Boomer[/QUOTE
Wanted to say thank you for taking time to share some great stories over @Tampa today .Im the guy who asked you about John Dooley and we talked briefly about bowling..Your website has some great stuff on it.If you ever over in the Tampa area email me and we could meet at the track.Thanks again.