357 RACE STUDY

[formula_2002]

357 RACES

WITHOUT ANY CONDITIONS
2ND RANK HORSE, 20% WINNERS, $1 RETURN OF $0.77
3RD RANK HORES, 13% WINNERS, $1 RETURN OF $0.73

WITH MY CONDITIONS

2ND RANK HORES, 176 BETS, 26% WINNERS, $1 RETURN OF $0.98
3RD RANK HORES, 67 BETS, 28% WINNERS, $1 RETURN OF $1.35

COMBINED $1 RETURN OF $1.07

I'M STILL WORKING ON GETTING FAVORABLE RESULTS FOR THE 1ST AND 3RD RANKED HORSES

[formula_2002]

I HAVE YET TO UPDATE THE DATABASE, BUT IN THE LAST 2 DAY, WON ONLY 2 OF 16 RACES

[formula_2002]

Originally Posted by formula_2002

I HAVE YET TO UPDATE THE DATABASE, BUT IN THE LAST 2 DAY, WON ONLY 2 OF 16 RACES

boy, did I pull that one out
now counted 5 wins in the last 20 races for a $1 return of $1.06

[classhandicapper]

That's impressive, but you are going to need a much larger sample. I did two recent studies that were profitable with spot plays covering much larger samples (not with longshots) that fell apart the next year. Overall the result are still good, but when things fall apart you can't tell if the early part of the sample was a fluke or the current part of the sample is a fluke.

[Tom]

Tell me about it.
I had a spot play that was profitable every week for three months!
Hitting 29% winners and ROI of 1.21.

Then I started posting the pick here and went 0-33!

I believe a winning ticket is nothing more than a set up to kill you at some later date!

[formula_2002]

I agree with both of you, and that is why I have not made a serious bet in about 10 years. but I have fun keeping score.

[formula_2002]

Originally Posted by formula_2002

357 RACES

WITHOUT ANY CONDITIONS
2ND RANK HORSE, 20% WINNERS, $1 RETURN OF $0.77
3RD RANK HORES, 13% WINNERS, $1 RETURN OF $0.73

WITH MY CONDITIONS

2ND RANK HORES, 176 BETS, 26% WINNERS, $1 RETURN OF $0.98
3RD RANK HORES, 67 BETS, 28% WINNERS, $1 RETURN OF $1.35

COMBINED $1 RETURN OF $1.07

I'M STILL WORKING ON GETTING FAVORABLE RESULTS FOR THE 1ST AND 3RD RANKED HORSES

I NOW HAVE 414 RACES IN THE DATA BASE
THE 3RD RANK HORSES ARE PERFORMING THE BEST

THERE ARE NOW 75 CONDITIONAL RACES FOR THE 3RD RANK HORSE.
22 WINS, "BET SIZE" $1 RETURN IS $1.33
$1 FLAT BET RETURN IS $1.43


I ALSO HAVE 20 CONDITIONAL RACES NOT ENTERED INTO THE DATA BASE.
6 WINS
$1 FLAT BET RETURN $1.62

STILL LOOKING FOR OTHER OPPORTUNITIES

[formula_2002]

HERE IS THE PLAY I HAVE BEEN POSTING RECENTLY IN THE SELECTION FORUM.
I LAY THE TOP RANK HORSE
PLAY AN EXACTA, ALL/ 2ND HORSE
PLAY THE 3RD RANK TO WIN.

IN THIS PARTICULAR RACE, THE 2ND RANKED PLACED.
MY $1 EXACTA RETURN (PLAYS NOT SHOWN HERE) WAS $4.22
THE PLACE PRICE ON THE 2ND RANK WAS ONLY $2.70
THIS IS A 156% ADVANTAGE OVER THE PLACE PRICE, RATHER THAN WHAT COULD BE A 15 %TO 18% LOSS ON A PLACE BET

WHAT IS NOT FACTORED IN HERE, IS THE PLACE DISADVANTAGE TO THE 2ND RANKED WINNING

DATA, DATA DATA

THE LAY PLAYS ARE DOING VERY WELL, AND MOST OF THEM ARE THE POSTIME FAVORITE.. THEY ONLY WON 5 OF 23 PLAYS
THE $1 WIN PAYS WERE;
$2.15
$2.05
$1.90
$3.20
$2.00

TOTAL PAY OUT + SAY %10 BONUS =$12.43, GIVING ME A PROFIT OF $10.57.

[formula_2002]

SINCE THE LAST REPORT
17 ADDITIONAL "CONDITIONAL" 3RD RANK PLAYS WITH 0 WINS.
"COLLECTED" ON TEH LAY BET 14 TIMES

[formula_2002]

thought this analysis would be of interest.
from the selections forum
uk Lingfield race 4 11-13-2018


that worked out well
betfair largest lay pool would require a $1 win return of $2.81
the horse went off at $2.20.
I estimate I would collect on a lay bet 80% on the time, my advantage, without adjusting for the various final odds would be 1.25 time the final odds.
2.20x 1.25 = $2.75 my maximum payout to break even

I need to add 1 additional column to the matrix information, that would be, how much to bet on all the horses other than the top pick

in this case the #1 horse won. my return would be $1.35, exceeding my required minimum return

the 1/5 exacta won, paying $27.60 on the dollar, my return would be $3.66.

not certain what my min $1 return for this play is just yet. have not reviewed but 22 races, 11 of which won.. that seems like too high a success rate.

[formula_2002]

THIS INVESTIGATION HAS TURNED INTO A LAY BET PLAY. BASED ON THE DATABASE DATA, I HAVE BEEN ABLE TO POST 20 WINNING LAY BETS IN 27 RACES FOR A $1216 PROFIT LESS 12% COMMISSION (BETFAIR RATE)

MOST IF NOT ALL LAY BETS ARE THE POST TIME FAVORITE OR SECOND FAVORITE

[formula_2002]

HERE IS AN UP DATE