Breeders Cup 2018

[bobphilo]

Originally Posted by SeaHorseRacing

Hi

New here.

I am a professional Gambler/trader based in the UK and have been waiting to join this site for some time.

BC is my fav meeting on the calendar and I hope I can give some insight on European runners here for you along with some knowledge for you guys.

Game Winner & Catalina Cruiser are my two value plays at 7/4 & 5/4 and I think are the best US dirt horses around imo.

I agree with you on Catalina Cruiser who has not been getting a lot of attention. He has dominated in all his races and posted some very good figures. He reminds me a lot of Justify in his brief unbeaten career and may prove to be even better than the Triple Crown winner. He races in a similar style and even looks like the big red horse.

[snappit]

For those looking for info from a European perspective the At The Races Breeders Cup micro site http://breederscup.attheraces.com/

[letswastemoney]

Originally Posted by bobphilo

I agree with you on Catalina Cruiser who has not been getting a lot of attention.

I disagree with this. People are calling him the lock of the weekend. He's a star on social media.

[bobphilo]

Originally Posted by letswastemoney

I disagree with this. People are calling him the lock of the weekend. He's a star on social media.

I guess we're listening to different sources. I've barely heard him mentioned on TVG, racing boards, including PA, and racing websites. Horse Racing Nation excepted, though even there the article is favorable but it is entitled "Is Catalina Cruiser a Bad Bet" implying that that's what many people are saying.

I pay little attention to social media, except for Quara which is called Facebook for the intelligent.

I do agree he will go probably off as favorite in the BC betting, though I believe there's no such thing as a lock.

[the little guy]

Originally Posted by bobphilo

I pay little attention to social media, except for Quara which is called Facebook for the intelligent.

I'm curious, does this insinuate that Facebook is Facebook for the stupid?

[SG4]

Originally Posted by bobphilo

I guess we're listening to different sources. I've barely heard him mentioned on TVG, racing boards, including PA, and racing websites. Horse Racing Nation excepted, though even there the article is favorable but it is entitled "Is Catalina Cruiser a Bad Bet" implying that that's what many people are saying.

I pay little attention to social media, except for Quara which is called Facebook for the intelligent.

I do agree he will go probably off as favorite in the BC betting, though I believe there's no such thing as a lock.

I guess a spelling or typing test for Quora isn't part of the requirements to get to this place reserved for the intelligent?


If professionals are coming on here and saying their value play is a horse nearly at even money in ante-post markets I think it'd be hard to say Catalina Cruiser is being overlooked, and least from the betting side. Now from a marketing & buzz perspective, he's a cool horse with unlimited potential & if he was in the Classic he'd be one of the most talked about subjects, but in taking the path of least resistance he becomes a side-note for now & will likely fall in to the bucket with Liam's Map of talented horses we wish tried their hand in the Classic.

[Spalding No!]

Originally Posted by bobphilo

I guess we're listening to different sources. I've barely heard him mentioned on TVG, racing boards, including PA, and racing websites. Horse Racing Nation excepted, though even there the article is favorable but it is entitled "Is Catalina Cruiser a Bad Bet" implying that that's what many people are saying.

If no one is mentioning Catalina Cruiser it's simply because no one is mentioning the BC Dirt Mile...and why would they? It's perhaps the least significant BC race year in and year out. Not a single horse of historic note has won the race--though if Golden Cents proves to be a standout sire I guess there will be one. Even the placings are void of consistent standouts. Shackleford, Gun Runner, and Accelerate are the only multiple Grade 1 winners that have hit the board in the race.

It's clearly an undercard race that masquerades as a Grade 1.

This year is no exception. Over half the field is cross-entered in either the Sprint or the Classic. As to be expected from this, the field is a bloated, rag-tag bunch at best. The only reason that Catalina Cruiser won't go off at odds-on is due to the presence of City of Light, who--unlike Catalina Cruiser--has actually won a Grade 1 race but in truth probably should have been in the Classic.

Beyond those two the field reads like the third leg of a hypothetical midwest 3yo triple that began with the Ohio Derby and had a middle leg in the Oklahoma Derby.

[cj]

Originally Posted by Spalding No!

Beyond those two the field reads like the third leg of a hypothetical midwest 3yo triple that began with the Ohio Derby and had a middle leg in the Oklahoma Derby.

Fittingly enough the Oklahoma Derby runner-up won this race last year.

[Spalding No!]

Originally Posted by cj

Fittingly enough the Oklahoma Derby runner-up won this race last year.

Yep, and that's the scary part...the runner-up won the race.

A world championship event indeed...

[letswastemoney]

Originally Posted by bobphilo

I guess we're listening to different sources. I've barely heard him mentioned on TVG, racing boards, including PA, and racing websites. Horse Racing Nation excepted, though even there the article is favorable but it is entitled "Is Catalina Cruiser a Bad Bet" implying that that's what many people are saying.

I wrote that. Maybe we do read different boards and websites then. Pace Advantage is the only serious forum I ever frequent anymore.

Other than that, Twitter, Facebook and Instagram, which may not filled with heavy bettors.

I still feel Catalina Cruiser will be heavily bet. I'd feel better siding with an alternative if Promises Fulfilled showed up and screwed up the pace. Since he's probably going to the Sprint, I believe the Dirt Mile pace will be mild enough for Catalina Cruiser, and plenty of bettors will see it that way.

[bobphilo]

Originally Posted by SG4

I guess a spelling or typing test for Quora isn't part of the requirements to get to this place reserved for the intelligent?


If professionals are coming on here and saying their value play is a horse nearly at even money in ante-post markets I think it'd be hard to say Catalina Cruiser is being overlooked, and least from the betting side. Now from a marketing & buzz perspective, he's a cool horse with unlimited potential & if he was in the Classic he'd be one of the most talked about subjects, but in taking the path of least resistance he becomes a side-note for now & will likely fall in to the bucket with Liam's Map of talented horses we wish tried their hand in the Classic.

No there are no spelling or reading tests required to post on Quara. The fact is that a lot of very intelligent people post some very interesting educational stuff there. Something badly needed when half of all people get all their information from Facebook when they're not watching reality shows, rather than reading a book or newspaper once in a while.

The only reason Catalina Cruiser is going in the Dirt Mile instead of the Classic is because the owner already has Accelerate entered there. Liam's Map might have been good enough to win the Classic but the connections went with the surer win in the Dirt Mile. Of course, the Classic offers more prestige but each owner has to decide for different reasons which he runs in.

I'm not predicting he will win or offer good value. That is a different topic which I won't decide until I read the PPs. The topic at hand here is how few sources are even mentioning him for either. I'm currently interested in his chance of winning as interesting speculation. The decisions on whether he will win or offer value are yet to come when the PPs come out and the betting begins.

[cj]

City of Light looked pretty bad in his one try at 10 furlongs. Even without Accelerate running, not sure the Classic is really the race for him.

[bobphilo]

Originally Posted by Spalding No!

If no one is mentioning Catalina Cruiser it's simply because no one is mentioning the BC Dirt Mile...and why would they? It's perhaps the least significant BC race year in and year out. Not a single horse of historic note has won the race--though if Golden Cents proves to be a standout sire I guess there will be one. Even the placings are void of consistent standouts. Shackleford, Gun Runner, and Accelerate are the only multiple Grade 1 winners that have hit the board in the race.

It's clearly an undercard race that masquerades as a Grade 1.

This year is no exception. Over half the field is cross-entered in either the Sprint or the Classic. As to be expected from this, the field is a bloated, rag-tag bunch at best. The only reason that Catalina Cruiser won't go off at odds-on is due to the presence of City of Light, who--unlike Catalina Cruiser--has actually won a Grade 1 race but in truth probably should have been in the Classic.

Beyond those two the field reads like the third leg of a hypothetical midwest 3yo triple that began with the Ohio Derby and had a middle leg in the Oklahoma Derby.

I think you are greatly underestimating the Dirt Mile especially with CC in the field and the match-up with City of Light. Are you saying it cannot even be a Gr 1 because it's not the Classic? Yes the Classic is the big race but there have been great Milers like Liam's Map who could have been a true contender in the Classic as well and still got a lot of attention despite running in the Dirt Mile instead. Sometimes, interest in a horse can be greater than the race itself and CC is such an interesting horse though he's not getting the attention.

[the little guy]

Originally Posted by Spalding No!

If no one is mentioning Catalina Cruiser it's simply because no one is mentioning the BC Dirt Mile...and why would they? It's perhaps the least significant BC race year in and year out. Not a single horse of historic note has won the race--though if Golden Cents proves to be a standout sire I guess there will be one. Even the placings are void of consistent standouts. Shackleford, Gun Runner, and Accelerate are the only multiple Grade 1 winners that have hit the board in the race.

It's clearly an undercard race that masquerades as a Grade 1.

This year is no exception. Over half the field is cross-entered in either the Sprint or the Classic. As to be expected from this, the field is a bloated, rag-tag bunch at best. The only reason that Catalina Cruiser won't go off at odds-on is due to the presence of City of Light, who--unlike Catalina Cruiser--has actually won a Grade 1 race but in truth probably should have been in the Classic.

Beyond those two the field reads like the third leg of a hypothetical midwest 3yo triple that began with the Ohio Derby and had a middle leg in the Oklahoma Derby.

I miss the BC Mile and 70 yards.

[bobphilo]

Originally Posted by the little guy

I'm curious, does this insinuate that Facebook is Facebook for the stupid?

Not saying that Facebook is for the stupid but it is for the less intelligent than Quara. The comparative posts will tell you that. They come by their reputations honestly.