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Old 05-26-2018, 01:05 PM   #1
NarrowRator
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High Percentage Strike Rate in Horse Racing

I need some help here....

I created this software that searches each race for the "real contenders" based on various criteria inputted. It is working and working ridiculously well. It finds the winners (regardless of the odds, yes it includes LONGSHOTS) and 2nd place finishers for exacta wagers at a high strike.

My issue is to further reduce the field to one or two horses. I've tried several methods with low success rate and sometimes those methods exclude the longshots from the list.

I would love if someone could use these to handicap the races in the way they normally do and see if they can come up with a method to reduce the field.


Again, these aren't selections. These are outputs from my software and then I would normally handicap the race. I can confidently tell you that the winners and exacta horses are present.

CHURCHILL DOWNS 26.05.2018
RACE 1: 1,2,4,5,6
RACE 2: 1,2,3,4,6
RACE 3: 1,2,4,5,6
RACE 4: 2,3,6,8,9
RACE 5: 1,2,3,6
RACE 6: 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9
RACE 7: 1,3,5,6,7,9
RACE 8: 1,2,3,4,5,6
RACE 9: 1,2,3,5,7,8
RACE 10: 2,3,4,5,6
RACE 11: 2,3,4,5,6,8,9,10


GULFSTREAM PARK 26.05.2018
RACE 1: 2,3,5
RACE 2: 1,2,3,4,6
RACE 3: 2,5,9,14
RACE 4: 1,3,4,5,6,7
RACE 5: 2,6,7,10,11
RACE 6: 1,2,3,6,7
RACE 7: 3,4,6,11,12,13,15,16
RACE 8: 1,3,4,5,6,9,11
RACE 9: 1,2,5,9,10
RACE 10: 2,3,4,6,7,8,9
RACE 11: 1,2,3,4,5,7,13
RACE 12: 1,3,4,6,7,8
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Old 05-26-2018, 04:02 PM   #2
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I am confused. These are a list of contenders?

CD01 you have 6 contenders in a 6-horse field?

CD02 you have 6 contenders in a 6-horse field?

CD03 you have 6 contenders in a 7-horse field?


Am I missing something?
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Old 05-26-2018, 04:26 PM   #3
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Originally Posted by Dave Schwartz View Post
I am confused. These are a list of contenders?

CD01 you have 6 contenders in a 6-horse field?

CD02 you have 6 contenders in a 6-horse field?

CD03 you have 6 contenders in a 7-horse field?


Am I missing something?
Yeah...his elimination "criteria" didn't do much in the 6th at Churchill either.
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Old 05-26-2018, 05:07 PM   #4
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Dave Schwartz View Post
I am confused. These are a list of contenders?

CD01 you have 6 contenders in a 6-horse field?

CD02 you have 6 contenders in a 6-horse field?

CD03 you have 6 contenders in a 7-horse field?


Am I missing something?
It's not 100% accurate as yet and I choose not to add too much critieria into the software because it eliminates the longshot in the end.

I would prefer to reduce outputted horse. Do you have any suggestions?
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Old 05-26-2018, 05:29 PM   #5
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5 contenders

Way I see it, I can get a race down to 5 ctrs without software, then any software worth its salt show be able to narrow to 2-3 horses most of the time.
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Old 05-26-2018, 05:51 PM   #6
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Quote:
Originally Posted by NarrowRator View Post
It's not 100% accurate as yet and I choose not to add too much critieria into the software because it eliminates the longshot in the end.

I would prefer to reduce outputted horse. Do you have any suggestions?
IMHO, you are starting on the wrong end.

That is, it appears you are trying to eliminate horses with very little chances of winning first. Logically, as you slim down the contenders, you will find that what is left are the lowest odds horses in the race.

So, my suggestion is that you begin on the other end: with the low odds horses.

And do not attempt to be perfect. The question is, "Can you build a contender system such that when The NarrowRator says they are toss outs, they lose big money for their backers?"
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Old 05-26-2018, 08:40 PM   #7
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Intention

I think everyone here misinterprets my intention here. My intention was to see if anyone would be interested in handicapping the races LIKE YOU NORMAL DO BUT from the list of horses given ONLY. That's all. I wanted to see if anyone would notice any patterns or trends.

Secondly, I'm not going to trouble the software because I know how to use the outputted horses to make a profit. It wasn't developed to find winners only, it was developed with the intention to find the 2nd place finishers as well. So, of course, it will have more horses than usual. I know that.

Thirdly, the list of races posted above contains maiden races and fields with less than 9 contenders. I don't play those races. I only play a race with 9 or more horse.

Fourthly, I already have a method that finds two horses to use on top from the list. Then I would place the other horses underneath for exotic wagers in races where value exist.

The aim of posting here was to see if I can reduce the top two horses to only one with some help.


Under normal circumstance, this is how I see the races:

CHURCHILL DOWNS 26.05.2018
NON-PLAYABLE - RACE 1: 1,2,4,5,6
NON-PLAYABLE - RACE 2: 1,2,3,4,6
NON-PLAYABLE - RACE 3: 1,2,4,5,6
NON-PLAYABLE - RACE 4: 2,3,6,8,9
NON-PLAYABLE - RACE 5: 1,2,3,6
NON-PLAYABLE - RACE 6: 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9
NON-PLAYABLE - RACE 7: 1,3,5,6,7,9
NON-PLAYABLE - RACE 8: 1,2,3,4,5,6
NON-PLAYABLE - RACE 9: 1,2,3,5,7,8
NON-PLAYABLE - RACE 10: 2,3,4,5,6
NON-PLAYABLE - RACE 11: 2,3,4,5,6,8,9,10



GULFSTREAM PARK 26.05.2018
NON-PLAYABLE - RACE 1: 2,3,5
NON-PLAYABLE - RACE 2: 1,2,3,4,6
NON-PLAYABLE - RACE 3: 2,5,9,14
NON-PLAYABLE - RACE 4: 1,3,4,5,6,7

RACE 5: 2,6,7,10,11. #2 WON AT 3/1, #11 - 2ND AT 2/1.
NON-PLAYABLE - RACE 6: 1,2,3,6,7
NON-PLAYABLE - RACE 7: 3,4,6,11,12,13,15,16.
NON-PLAYABLE - RACE 8: 1,3,4,5,6,9,11
NON-PLAYABLE - RACE 9: 1,2,5,9,10

RACE 10: 2,3,4,6,7,8,9. #6 WON AT 7/1, #8 - 2ND AT 70/1.
RACE 11: 1,2,3,4,5,7,13. #1 WON AT 8/5, #5 - 2ND AT 15/1.
RACE 12: 1,3,4,6,7,8. #8 - WON AT 4/5, #7 - 2ND AT 14/1.
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Old 05-27-2018, 09:47 AM   #8
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Originally Posted by NarrowRator View Post

Secondly, I'm not going to trouble the software because I know how to use the outputted horses to make a profit.
If you are making a profit with whatever you are doing, my advice is to keep it to yourself and bet more money.
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Old 05-27-2018, 10:03 AM   #9
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If you are making a profit with whatever you are doing, my advice is to keep it to yourself and bet more money.
Bingo!!!! We have a winner!
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Old 05-27-2018, 01:20 PM   #10
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If you are making a profit with whatever you are doing, my advice is to keep it to yourself and bet more money.
Thanks.
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Old 05-27-2018, 01:40 PM   #11
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This looks like a bunch of nothing. When your 5th or 6th rated horse runs 2nd you are spreading way too much to hit the exacta
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Old 05-27-2018, 03:00 PM   #12
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This looks like a bunch of nothing. When your 5th or 6th rated horse runs 2nd you are spreading way too much to hit the exacta

"Fourthly, I already have a method that finds two horses to use on top from the list. Then I would place the other horses underneath for exotic wagers in races where value exist."

Anyways, thanks for your non-input. Obviously, the aim is the bring down the number as best as possible without filtering out the longshots and 2nd place finisher. As noted above, it's not 100% accurate as yet. Smh.

Let's forget about this post, I will continue to find ways to reduce the number on my own.

Last edited by NarrowRator; 05-27-2018 at 03:09 PM.
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Old 05-27-2018, 03:11 PM   #13
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I already have what I want in terms of finding the winner and 2nd place finisher and longshots in the same range regardless of the odds.

I will peacefully work on the rest for myself.
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Old 05-27-2018, 04:23 PM   #14
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Originally Posted by NarrowRator View Post
"Fourthly, I already have a method that finds two horses to use on top from the list. Then I would place the other horses underneath for exotic wagers in races where value exist."

Anyways, thanks for your non-input. Obviously, the aim is the bring down the number as best as possible without filtering out the longshots and 2nd place finisher. As noted above, it's not 100% accurate as yet. Smh.

Let's forget about this post, I will continue to find ways to reduce the number on my own.
You posted a method that listed every horse in the race as a contender, got mad when people questioned it and told us you already knew how to get the contenders down to two horses including huge longshots, then were mad that we weren't telling you how to get the contenders down to two horses...and you're the one writing "smh".
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Old 05-27-2018, 04:58 PM   #15
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You posted a method that listed every horse in the race as a contender, got mad when people questioned it and told us you already knew how to get the contenders down to two horses including huge longshots, then were mad that we weren't telling you how to get the contenders down to two horses...and you're the one writing "smh".
I already know how to get it down to two horses idiot. You read before you post.

I only asked if using the picks to handicap race anyone saw ANY PATTERNS. I didn't ask for no other help. That's all.

I can already be betting the value price horse I get on top.

Last edited by NarrowRator; 05-27-2018 at 05:03 PM.
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