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Old 10-11-2006, 10:19 AM   #1
chickenhead
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Pick 6 Ticket Structure -- Crist

I very rarely play the pick 6, but I think it's a wonderful bet. I got the Crist book and have been reading it recently. He lays out a pretty logical structure, and includes some actual plays he has made.

He gives an example from 2005 BC day. I am not questioning his handicapping, but I do question a little how he put his opinion into play.

He had three strong opinions going into the day:

Leroi was a lock to win the Mile.
St. Liam was a lock to win the Classic.
LITF was extremely vulnerable.

Now obviously I can't know exactly how he saw the races, so lets just assume that he really did feel strongly and that those three opinions really did represent his feelings. If he felt less strongly so be it, but for the purposes of my question let's assume that was it.

Most all are familiar with the A/B/C approach to structure, if not go buy his book.

So his total ticket costs are $3,348. What I don't like about his ticket is that $1440 are committed to beating one of his two locks from above, either Liam or Leroi. This left substantially less money to spread in the races where he did not have such a strong opinion -- particularly the sprint, where in the biggest upset of the day, which he predicted, he had 4 A's and no B's -- also in the F+M turf, which he spread 3A 3B 3C.

If he had been willing to live and die on just his two strongest opinions he would have been able to spread much deeper, 5A and 5B in the sprint, up to 6Bs and several Cs in the F+M turf.

While Leroi did get beat, he undoubtedly would have had the conso as Pleasant Home was an A contender (very nice peice of capping), and he apparantly knew that the F+M turf was not a race he had handled.

Now I am really not writing this like some might think, "oh, it's easy to second guess blah blah" -- I am talking about the fundamental idea:

Is it really smart to bet against your strongest opinions to the tune of 40%? Or should those truly be your keys, i.e. you must insist that you give yourself the best possible shot to get paid when your very strongest opinions are correct. And if they are not correct, so be it.

That is kind of how I look at it, but I've never hit the big pick 6's. I realize that in a p6 sequence, especially one with some interesting things happening, you can't insist on being too right about too many things, but it seems like insisting on being right about one or two things (assuming you have some strong opinions) ups your chances significantly.

Last edited by chickenhead; 10-11-2006 at 10:22 AM.
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Old 10-11-2006, 11:41 AM   #2
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At least in part, there are two competing value concepts in a pick 6.

Stealing from the value betting thread, strong opinions are what create value (assuming they are right often enough to be useful). Further to that, the difference of opinion between you and the public is the measure of how much value you have created (I prefer created to found).

But in a pick 6, as I think Crist really intelligently puts out there, due to the nature of the pool betting in proper proportions creates its own value, i.e. the public massively overbets the favorites in the pools due to the rapidly growing number of possible combinations.

So it makes sense that it is difficult to create value alone by having a strong opinion on a favorite, no matter how bold you are the pool is probably just as bold. Value really has to come elsewhere -- either by beating a heavy favorite, or by getting some interesting horses home elsewhere.

It's this interplay between boldness and betting in proper proportion (which as it relates to the pool is bold in it's own way) that I think makes this bet the most difficult of all. I thinks thats why Crist structured his play the way he did, trying to balance boldness in his own line with boldness vs. the pool.
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Old 10-11-2006, 02:05 PM   #3
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Quote:
Originally Posted by chickenhead
... So his total ticket costs are $3,348. What I don't like about his ticket is that $1440 are committed to beating one of his two locks from above, either Liam or Leroi. This left substantially less money to spread in the races where he did not have such a strong opinion -- particularly the sprint, where in the biggest upset of the day, which he predicted, he had 4 A's and no B's -- also in the F+M turf, which he spread 3A 3B 3C.

... Is it really smart to bet against your strongest opinions to the tune of 40%? Or should those truly be your keys, i.e. you must insist that you give yourself the best possible shot to get paid when your very strongest opinions are correct. And if they are not correct, so be it.

That is kind of how I look at it, but I've never hit the big pick 6's. I realize that in a p6 sequence, especially one with some interesting things happening, you can't insist on being too right about too many things, but it seems like insisting on being right about one or two things (assuming you have some strong opinions) ups your chances significantly.
C-HD,
The beauty of the BC is that the quality of the fields is so high that the difference between the ability of most favorites and those of the rest of their fields is not as great as in most other stakes and lesser contests.

The Mile has seldom been kind to favorites. Leroi and Rock of Gibralter come to mind immediately as best horses who lost. Did either of those two look any less formidable than Bernardini looks in this year’s Classic?

Unless one’s name is Grant Stone, one usually needs at least one ALL race. When one can play $3348 or more, one can go deep in ALL races. Having the strong opinion that the favorite will win is not always a good one, but singles are where you find them.

A stopped clock is always right twice a day, but if one buys enough haystacks, one is certain to find a needle.
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Old 10-11-2006, 02:33 PM   #4
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Indulto
Unless one’s name is Grant Stone, one usually needs at least one ALL race. When one can play $3348 or more, one can go deep in ALL races. Having the strong opinion that the favorite will win is not always a good one, but singles are where you find them.

A stopped clock is always right twice a day, but if one buys enough haystacks, one is certain to find a needle.
But that is not really true, as proved by the BRIS pool last year. Certainly $3300 is not enough to go deep in every race. It really is pretty moderate coverage.

I think there is a pretty good case to be made that rather than toning down your opinion due to the quality of the fields, the correct approach is to actually exaggerate your opinion quite a bit. You will still need a big ticket.
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Old 10-11-2006, 03:05 PM   #5
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I think anyone that spends more than $65 and less than $1500 on a pick six is truly up against it versus the syndicates. You may be just contributing to the big players that can spread effectively in the "chaos" races without a real probability of hitting it. In my opinion....it is a pool for the large bankroll types for proper effectiveness. Using the "lock" examples....I think the "normal" recreational player with a bankroll under $1200 for B.CUP day is best to use them as singles in pick threes {all of the races with the locks involved} and pick fours. The pick four is an outstanding wager for the guy willing to use a single or two and spread in the other races. Particularly if your single is not the favorite. Of course I am not the guy to dissuade anyone from a life style changing event....I believe in the "bet small to win big" philosophy in the para-mutual game. Wonder if a five or ten dollar pick three or pick four is a much better route to take.
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Old 10-11-2006, 03:37 PM   #6
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I agree, particularly about the pick 4. I would not be willing to put much more than around $1200 into the pick 6, and that is really a figs leaf worth of coverage.

However, with several million as the grand prize it is surely tempting. The pick 4 is much more reasonable, just not quite as exciting.
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Old 10-11-2006, 04:07 PM   #7
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You are not looking at thetickets correctly. Because his main picks are technically a single those tickets come out less that when he uses alternates. If he shows all the tickets in the book then do this. Circle the main picks as if they won then see how many combos are left. Do the same with the alternates. As you go down you will see the coverage gets smaller as the alternates win and the coverage goes deeper as themain choice wins
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Old 10-11-2006, 04:16 PM   #8
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I'm pretty sure I'm looking at them correctly, but lets see.

in the mile, he used Leroi as his lone A. no B's. 6(!) C's.

the AAAAAC ticket, his mains with the mile C's, cost $864

in the classic, he used Liam, one B, and 4 C's

I ignored the B in my post, but the

AAAAAC ticket, his mains with the classic C's, cost $576

If he didn't use any C's in those two races, he punches $1440 less in tickets. I'm saying that $1440 may have been better spent betting with his opinion rather than against it.

Did I miss something? I know what you are saying, but it doesn't relate to what I'm saying (I don't think).
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Old 10-11-2006, 04:33 PM   #9
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or lets look at it another way. And again this is not in any way criticizing Crist, he has 100X more experience betting pick sixes than I do, but this is the kind of stuff I'd like to talk to him about.

His three strongest opinions are:

two big legit favs
one highly overbet really vulnerable fav.

So the two big favs as single are not big value creaters in themselves, your opinion there is not really unique. But they are value enablers, in that they let you spread elsewhere.

But where to spread? Wouldn't the sprint be the best place? Doesn't your opinion tell you that that is the big value race? Isn't the logical conclusion of those three strong opinions to really do everything possible to get the winner of the sprint on your ticket as an A, at the very very worst a B?

It just seems to me like that is how you'd approach something like this. But I'm missing something, because he only goes 4A's and no B's in the sprint. It seems like a halfhearted effort to get at the value that he's identified. Since that is the money race, rather than burning up money with C's against your single, wouldn't you rather move more A's up into the sprint? You want that winner on your main!
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Old 10-11-2006, 05:13 PM   #10
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Crist is right to play a miss-one, -two, -three or -whatever. It cuts down the ticket by thousands. If it's too tough to separate them, it's a passable bet. Pick-threes and pick-fours are the logical alternatives, I guess.
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Old 10-11-2006, 06:04 PM   #11
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i'm gonna call you moetoe from now on.

There is a lot of nuance to these tickets, I think it's unfortunate he didn't go into more detail.

A stream of consciousness of his decision process to get to that ticket would have been extremely informative.

Last edited by chickenhead; 10-11-2006 at 06:12 PM.
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Old 10-11-2006, 06:40 PM   #12
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I prefer Shemptoe or Incogni-toe, but ... as you wish.
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Old 10-11-2006, 11:01 PM   #13
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Originally Posted by toetoe
I prefer Shemptoe or Incogni-toe, but ... as you wish.
I submit Undertoe, Blutoe, Stubtoe, and my personal favorite -- Unguided Missletoe.
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Old 10-12-2006, 10:40 AM   #14
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tickets

CH

Toetoe knows the author of a book similar to Crist's book. The strategies are explained in more detail in that book and why you structure tickets. The author is Jerry Samovitz and he wrote the book in the early 90's. His experience was from playing the pick 6 in the late 80's in So Cal. I forgot the name but it has to do with exotic betting. Toetoe may have the name. You may want to buy this book and compare to Crist. Then we can discuss in more detail if you like
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Old 10-12-2006, 11:20 AM   #15
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Hey ToeToe

Can you give me your picks for this years BC so I know who to throw out.

But seriously, I believe the amount of $ you put in a Pk6 is overrated as evidence by last years 90k Pk6 syndicate ticket that busted in the 1st leg and the previous years catch of the BC Pk6 on an $8 ticket.
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