Evaluating Big Winners - Horse Racing Forum - PaceAdvantage.Com

classhandicapper · 02-03-2014, 10:02 AM

I thought a thread on this subject might be interesting (it is to me lol).

When a horse wins by a huge margin it's usually because of one of several things (or a combination of a few of them).

1. He was way better than that class of horse.

2. That particular field was very weak for the class.

3. He got a bias aided win or perfect trip relative to the other contenders.

4. He shook loose on a sloppy track he loved.

5. Combinations

What techniques do people use to try to determine what category of horse they are dealing with and where it fits against horses of a much higher class when they move up.

Overlay · 02-03-2014, 10:19 AM

I don't give any special weight to a big margin of victory by itself (as compared to a win by a narrower amount) as far as the horse's chances in today's race, especially if the horse is moving up, or if there were identifiable factors working in the horse's favor in the big win that won't be present today. That big win was against another field under a unique past set of circumstances. I'm more interested in how recently the horse did it, how fast it ran, how the class of competition against which it's competing today compares to that of the previous win, and whether (in light of those factors and others) the horse's odds today are offering value in comparison to my assessment of its winning chances, which (speaking generally) I would think that a big win last out would make less likely.

rosenowsr · 02-03-2014, 11:00 AM

For the type of horses that i bet (cheap Claimers) a win of 3 lengths or more and returning to a race within 7 days is a very good indicator the horse is in form and the trainer is trying to take advantage of it. Is there value in this? No. Mainly because it is so obvious.
Can I statistically prove this,No. Just my observation. YMMV

Robert Goren · 02-03-2014, 11:04 AM

Or they have gotten hold of new drug that worked very well on it.

rastajenk · 02-03-2014, 11:10 AM

I think the Seahawks won with a #3 from that list.

classhandicapper · 02-03-2014, 11:23 AM

How about if we also refine this to very lightly raced maidens and limited ALW winners where there is a very wide range of quality and it's much harder to determine if it's a category #1 or category #2 horse.

Clocker · 02-03-2014, 01:04 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by classhandicapper

How about if we also refine this to very lightly raced maidens and limited ALW winners where there is a very wide range of quality and it's much harder to determine if it's a category #1 or category #2 horse.

Lightly raced means even harder to categorize. Maidens, even good ones, can be very unpredictable in their first several races. Maiden claimers even more so.

thaskalos · 02-03-2014, 01:37 PM

IMO...these big wins usually occur because of a combination of factors. A speed horse in a paceless race finds itself with the aid of a speed-biased racing strip...or a horse is dropped in class to meet a group of horses whose form has recently been tailing off. You will also see the occasional miracle-working trainer...working his magic with a new acquisition.

In any case...I feel it's best that the horseplayer should NOT rate horses off of their runaway victories...simply because the circumstances that they were earned under are usually not repeatable.

The bias-aided horse will likely encounter more early speed opposition and a more "normal" track next out...while the dominating class-dropper won't find itself at the same level again.

limit2 · 02-03-2014, 01:59 PM

It seems some of your answers you seek as: last 3 recent outings, last winning trip and unexpended energy in last race in a front running effort can be found in a book. The book is by Dan Geer titled "Pro-rated Longshots".

classhandicapper · 02-03-2014, 02:38 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Clocker

Lightly raced means even harder to categorize. Maidens, even good ones, can be very unpredictable in their first several races. Maiden claimers even more so.

That's the killer for me.

With experienced older horses, the you can evaluate the competition off many races, the horses themselves are already fairly well sorted out class wise etc... So between that information and what I get from replays, charts etc.. I can usually figure out what happened.

But in races for maidens, NW1, etc... it can get really tricky.

There's such huge range of quality at that level and you also have to evaluate first time starters, second time starters that may have jumped up etc... It's often really hard to tell what happened. There are 10 length winners that are total dregs, very strong and deep fields where everyone was reasonable tight at the finish, horses that won by modest margins that had a ton of energy in reserve after the wire and are capable of much more etc..

The standard answer is to just look at their pace and speed figures. Admittedly that works fairly well. But I like to try evaluate these things in a non figure way also.

We've had some very good examples of this issue in some of the races for 3yos in the last couple of months where big winners with fast time jumped from statebred races into open company and won for fun again, But I've seen an awful lot of dismal failures like that too.

Clocker · 02-03-2014, 02:51 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by classhandicapper

There's such huge range of quality at that level and you also have to evaluate first time starters

I have found that the tote board is the most reliable indicator of whether an FTS is a contender. Also, I remember Jim Quinn saying in his condition book that an FTS in a claiming race is a pretty good indication of a mediocre horse. If the horse showed any promise at all, a trainer would not put it up for sale in its first time out.

thaskalos · 02-03-2014, 03:00 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Clocker

I have found that the tote board is the most reliable indicator of whether an FTS is a contender. Also, I remember Jim Quinn saying in his condition book that an FTS in a claiming race is a pretty good indication of a mediocre horse. If the horse showed any promise at all, a trainer would not put it up for sale in its first time out.

This is outdated thinking, IMO.

But I could be wrong...

JohnGalt1 · 02-03-2014, 03:45 PM

The definition of a BIG win to me is---

1) Won by 3 or more lengths.

2) Must be no more than 2 lengths ahead at second call.

3) Big win must have been run on a fast track. A big win on a wet/fast track could be aided by the surface.

4) A big win is not awarded to a horse from a maiden claiming race. A maiden claimer is not as likely to benefit from a big win since the competition it faced is usually of lesser quality. Maiden special weights can be credited with big wins because they are classier horses.

And it is only a condition factor for me. A horse off a big win but 5 lengths slower than another would not be a win bet but would be playable underneath.

Light · 02-03-2014, 04:22 PM

My homemade computerized horse handicapping program spits out any horse that had a "big win" (i.e. won by 3 lengths or more) in its last start for the card I am handicapping. I have a further condition that it cannot be a w-w job. The ROI is negative with these "big win" types.

Yesterdays lone qualifier at Aqu was "Alcomatch" and he ran 4th.

cj · 02-03-2014, 04:56 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by thaskalos

IMO...these big wins usually occur because of a combination of factors. A speed horse in a paceless race finds itself with the aid of a speed-biased racing strip...or a horse is dropped in class to meet a group of horses whose form has recently been tailing off. You will also see the occasional miracle-working trainer...working his magic with a new acquisition.

In any case...I feel it's best that the horseplayer should NOT rate horses off of their runaway victories...simply because the circumstances that they were earned under are usually not repeatable.

The bias-aided horse will likely encounter more early speed opposition and a more "normal" track next out...while the dominating class-dropper won't find itself at the same level again.

Good post. I just recently gave a horse named Marriedtothemusic the fastest TimeformUS speed figure of the year, a 122, in a 5.5f romp at Aqueduct. He won by nearly 10.

However, this doesn't mean I expect him to run 122 next time out. The race was an allowance/optional claimer, but he was the only horse to run without a tag. The others were in for 30k. He cruised to a clear lead against inferior horses and ran very fast. While obviously he is a very talented horse, if he were to jump in next time and take on the likes of Candyman E, the Toboggan winner on Saturday, I doubt he repeats the number.

This is gambling though, and that is always a factor. If he is 2-1 next out against better, I'll be against. If he is 10-1, I'll take a shot.