Pace Pros -- 2 years plus experience - Horse Racing Forum - PaceAdvantage.Com

Capper Al · 01-09-2011, 12:55 PM

In a post, someone implied that they used Pace figures in place of Speed figures. I just wondered how many of you do or don't, and why and why not.

Thanks

Fingal · 01-09-2011, 01:10 PM

To put it in Football terms, Herm Edwards once said-
" you throw the ball to score, you run it to win."

For me in racing it's the same.

I use pace figures to score ( get into position )
And final figs to win ( Speed patterns )

Fastracehorse · 01-09-2011, 01:19 PM

and analyze pace in terms of a tactical advantage, i don't feel i need a numerical rating for this

fffastt

Dave Schwartz · 01-09-2011, 01:20 PM

Al,

If you are referring to my post - which you may not be doing - what I said that not too many people select pace lines to get speed figures.

If I am mistaken, sorry.

Dave

thaskalos · 01-09-2011, 02:29 PM

All experienced handicappers have their own handicapping styles - which they are comfortable with - and, predictably, there are wide areas of disagreement among them, whenever they discuss handicapping theory.

IMO, handicapping should be made as simple as possible...but no simpler!

In my own handicapping of SPRINT races, I rely on pace ratings alone...because I am much more interested in the way the race unfolded, than I am about the final clocking that it registered.

I know that some of the game's most renowned players have advocated pace ANALYSIS rather than pace ratings...but I humbly disagree.

IMO, the only way to conduct a thorough pace analysis...is by using accurate pace ratings at every point of call.

cj · 01-09-2011, 03:25 PM

In my opinion, there are two types of "pace handicapping".

The first is to evaluate the ability of each horse. You use pace figures to supplement speed figures. No one number in isolation, be it a pace or a speed figure, is going to give you the whole picture of how a horse ran in a race. Of course numbers alone will never do that, but pace/speed combo beats either one in isolation.

The second type is to try to get a handle on what type of pace might be expected in today's race. I would say speed figures mean little in this type, but pace numbers, along with early positional analysis, mean a lot.

Tom · 01-09-2011, 04:12 PM

I use pace and speed figs alone, combined, and I use pace analysis.
Can't vote.

thaskalos · 01-09-2011, 04:32 PM

Like I said...wide areas of disagreement.

And that's how it should be...

There is more than one way to skin a cat...

Capper Al · 01-09-2011, 06:04 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dave Schwartz

Al,

If you are referring to my post - which you may not be doing - what I said that not too many people select pace lines to get speed figures.

If I am mistaken, sorry.

Dave

It was your comment that started me thinking about this. There's nothing to be sorry about. It is an interesting point of view how cappers put it all together.

Capper Al · 01-09-2011, 06:08 PM

You nailed most of it, Pace analysis verse Pace rating. One can just use Speed and do a little Pace analysis while others will use Pace ratings as forceabily as Speed cappers use Speed figures.

Quote:

Originally Posted by thaskalos

All experienced handicappers have their own handicapping styles - which they are comfortable with - and, predictably, there are wide areas of disagreement among them, whenever they discuss handicapping theory.

IMO, handicapping should be made as simple as possible...but no simpler!

In my own handicapping of SPRINT races, I rely on pace ratings alone...because I am much more interested in the way the race unfolded, than I am about the final clocking that it registered.

I know that some of the game's most renowned players have advocated pace ANALYSIS rather than pace ratings...but I humbly disagree.

IMO, the only way to conduct a thorough pace analysis...is by using accurate pace ratings at every point of call.

Capper Al · 01-09-2011, 06:12 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Tom

I use pace and speed figs alone, combined, and I use pace analysis.
Can't vote.

It was difficult to come up with the perfect questions. But thanks for your comment. Will your Pace figures ever differ from your Pace analysis? Let's say in a sprint that a horse is an E8 but his Pace figure is low. How would you resolve this?

garyscpa · 01-09-2011, 06:15 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by CapperAl

It was difficult to come up with the perfect questions. But thanks for your comment. Will your Pace figures ever differ from your Pace analysis? Let's say in a sprint that a horse is an E8 but his Pace figure is low. How would you resolve this?

It depends on the other early pace horses in the race, if there are any. If there aren't, they may all run a 26 second first quarter.

Tom · 01-09-2011, 06:19 PM

And E, a need the lead horse, with deficient pace figs is cause to throw the horse out, normally.

But say the E horse has a 98 and the top pace horse has a 101, but is a P horse. I will assume the E will have the lead over the P horse ( if the P could go to the front, I would have labeled it and E/P, not a P). I look for P1 or P2 horses all the time, assuming the have enough speed to be close while not using all thier potential, and will have much left in the tank late.

Assigning the running style accurately is of the utmost importance to me in race where I use pace. I do not think pace is the answer in may races, though, many more than I used to think. It is important to the outcome, but you will never be able to predict it before hand. CJ's PF figure, a speed figure modified by pace takes care of a lot of unknowns.

thaskalos · 01-09-2011, 06:24 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by CapperAl

It was difficult to come up with the perfect questions. But thanks for your comment. Will your Pace figures ever differ from your Pace analysis? Let's say in a sprint that a horse is an E8 but his Pace figure is low. How would you resolve this?

The question is NOT: "who will go to the lead"?...the proper question should be: "will the pace-setter make a comfortable lead, or will he exhaust himself in the process?"

The E8 horse may very well set the early pace against seemingly faster front-running competition...but it's chances of winning the race are slim.

garyscpa · 01-09-2011, 06:34 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by thaskalos

The question is NOT: "who will go to the lead"?...the proper question should be: "will the pace-setter make a comfortable lead, or will he exhaust himself in the process?"

The E8 horse may very well set the early pace against seemingly faster front-running competition...but it's chances of winning the race are slim.

It's pretty tough to be an E8 and have inferior pace figures unless the horse is outclassed or entered at the wrong distance. I would think that a slow pace scenario would favor the front-runner.